Buffalo Bills betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets – Page 6

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Carolina Panthers (5-8) travel to face the Buffalo Bills (7-6) in a Week 15 matchup Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Panthers vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Panthers are skidding, dropping three in a row while failing to cover each. The defense has been an issue, allowing 27 or more points in each of the losses, and the Over has hit in four consecutive games for Carolina.

The Bills dropped a 33-27 overtime heartbreaker at Tampa Bay last week, which was like losing twice. The Bills erased a late 27-10 deficit to force overtime, but couldn’t stop the Bucs in OT. Buffalo enters on a 2-5-1 ATS slide.

Panthers at Bills odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Panthers +470 (bet $100 to win $470) | Bills -700 (bet $700 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Panthers +10.5 (-105) | Bills -10.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Panthers at Bills key injuries

Panthers

CB A.J. Bouye (foot) out
WR DJ Moore (hamstring) questionable
OG Michael Jordan (hamstring) questionable
OG John Miller (ankle) questionable

Bills

WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee) doubtful
DT Star Lotulelei (toe) questionable

Panthers at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 29, Panthers 13

Money line

The Bills (-700) are going to snap back on track with a win over head coach Sean McDermott’s old team, but you can’t lay seven times your potential winnings on a team that is just one game over .500. Don’t do it.

PASS.

Against the spread

The BILLS -10.5 (-115) are 2-1-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, and they’re 2-1 SU/ATS against three NFC opponents.

Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight against teams with a losing record, so expect the Bills to finally pull it together and put a performance together worthy of a playoff team.

Over/Under

The UNDER 44.5 (-115) hit in Buffalo’s most recent home game, but blustering, wintry conditions played a huge part in its 14-10 loss to New England on Monday night in Week 13.

The temperature will be around freezing with winds of 13-16 mph, but not too terribly for this time of year in western New York.

The Under is 5-2 in the past seven at home for the Bills and 4-1 in the past five against teams with a losing record. The Panthers’ offense has been mediocre, and the Bills’ D should shut them down for a convincing win.

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Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 14 odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) host the Buffalo Bills (7-5) Sunday for their Week 14 meeting at Raymond James Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Buccaneers odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Buffalo has alternated between winning and losing over the past eight games (3-4-1 ATS) with the latest being a 14-10 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 13.

The Bills are 6-5-1 ATS and 5-7 O/U but have played the second-easiest schedule, according to Football Outsiders.

Tampa Bay handled business on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13 with a 30-17 victory, winning and covering for the third straight game. The Bucs are 6-6 ATS and 6-6 O/U with the 22nd-toughest schedule, per Football Outsiders.

Tom Brady is 32-3 overall in his career vs. the Bills with a 70 TD:25 INT ratio and a 97.9 QB Rating. Since Buffalo hired head coach Sean McDermott in 2017, Brady is 6-0 overall but with only a 4 TD:5 INT ratio and an 80.2 QB Rating vs. the Bills.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 14 picks and predictions

Bills at Buccaneers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bills +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Buccaneers -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills +3.5 (-120) | Buccaneers -3.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Bills at Buccaneers key injuries

Bills

LG Jon Feliciano (calf) questionable
LB A.J. Klein (health and safety protocols) questionable
DT Star Lotulelei (toe) questionable
CB Tre’Davious White (knee) IR-out

Buccaneers

WR Antonio Brown (suspended) out
LG Ali Marpet (abdomen) questionable
C Ryan Jensen (ankle) questionable
DT Vita Vea (knee) questionable
DT William Gholston (knee) questionable
DB Jordan Whitehead (calf) questionable

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Bills at Buccaneers odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 31, Buccaneers 27

Money line

“SPRINKLE” on the BILLS (+135) for a small wager because Buffalo plus the points is the right side in this game.

This is an all-in game for the Bills who are currently the third and final AFC Wild Card seed but need to fend off several challengers for that spot.

Buffalo’s path to victory is to abandon its weak running game, which won’t do much against Tampa’s vaunted rush defense and have QB Josh Allen pick apart a beatable Bucs secondary.

A couple of Tampa’s early opponents proved if your offensive line can hold up in pass protection then their quarterback can have success in the air.

The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford were able to throw on the Bucs. Also, in Week 4, the Patriots’ Mac Jones dinked and dunked his way down the field all game vs. Tampa and New England nearly upset the Bucs.

Pro Football Focus gives Buffalo’s offensive line the pass blocking edge in its matchup with Tampa’s defensive line. Allen should have time to throw and the Bills can control the pace of this game.

Again, if it’s either/or, go with Buffalo plus the points, but I “LEAN” to the BILLS (+135) winning this one outright.

Against the spread

BET BILLS +3.5 (-120) heavier than or instead of Buffalo’s money line. Everyone is betting the Bucs in this spot, yet this line hasn’t budged off the opener.

Furthermore, this is the lowest Buffalo’s stock has been all year. The Bills were expected to coast to an AFC East crown and are now fighting for a postseason berth. Tampa Bay is going to coast to an NFC South title and Brady is the frontrunner in the NFL MVP race.

But, the preseason line for this game was the Bucs -4. How could Tampa be cheaper now than in the preseason when Buffalo’s stock was at its highest price? What I’m getting at is the Bucs -3.5 (-108) feels too good to be true and perhaps this is a trap game for Tampa.

More importantly, despite their inconsistent performance, the Bills have higher expected points added and yards per play differentials and are better on third-down.

BET BILLS +3.5 (-120) as the best bet in this game.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” to the Over 54.5 (-105) because the Bucs score nearly 40 points per game at home and I think the Bills’ offense can get some big plays in the passing game vs. Tampa’s defense.

However, a vast majority of the market is hammering the Over and I don’t have a strong enough grasp on the total to comfortably follow the herd.

Also see: All Week 14 odds and lines

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday Night Football’s New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The New England Patriots (8-4) visit the Buffalo Bills (7-4) in a pivotal AFC East clash in the Week 13 Monday Night Football game. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium. Below, we look at the Patriots vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Patriots are the hottest team in football, having won their last six games after starting the season 2-4. Their most recent win came in a 36-13 blowout of the visiting Tennessee Titans in Week 12. What’s most impressive about their winning streak is that all but one of their victories have been by at least 18 points.

The Bills cruised to an easy 31-6 win over the New Orleans Saints Thanksgiving Day, bouncing back from an embarrassing 41-15 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts the week prior. Since their bye in Week 7, the Bills are just 3-2 with losses to the Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars, and with wins over the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Saints.

Patriots at Bills odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Patriots +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Bills -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +2.5 (+102) | Bills -2.5 (-125)
Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)

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Patriots at Bills key injuries

Patriots

C David Andrews (shoulder) questionable
DL Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (ribs) questionable
OL Trent Brown (calf) questionable
K Nick Folk (knee) questionable

Bills

OL Cody Ford (bicep) questionable

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Patriots at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Patriots 20, Bills 17

Money line

The PATRIOTS (+122) are on an absolute tear and although some of their opponents were on the weaker side, they did beat the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns and Titans during their winning streak.

The winning continues Monday night against the Bills, who have been wildly inconsistent, particularly on offense.

Pats head coach Bill Belichick will draw up a game plan to bottle up Bills QB Josh Allen, forcing him into a turnover or two.

BET PATRIOTS (+122) to win outright, having beaten the Bills in seven of their last 10 meetings.

Against the spread

New England covered the spread in all six games during its recent winning streak and is now 8-4 ATS this season. The Bills are surprisingly 6-4-1 ATS despite losing to the Jags and getting blown out by the Colts. They did have blowout wins over the Dolphins, Washington, Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season.

All of Buffalo’s wins have been by at least 15 points. So, when it wins, it does so comfortably.

I just don’t think this is a game the Bills win, and I love getting the points with the Patriots on the road. BET PATRIOTS +2.5 (+102).

Over/Under

These are two of the highest-scoring teams in football. The Patriots average 28.0 points per game (PPG), while the Bills average 29.6.

They’re also two of the best defenses as the Patriots rank first in least points allowed (15.8 PPG) and the Bills are second (16.5 PPG).

Given how many turnovers each defense forces and how turnover-prone the opposing quarterbacks are, this will be a lower-scoring game in Buffalo.

BET NDER 40.5 (-103).

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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thanksgiving’s Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Week 12 odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Buffalo Bills (6-4) and New Orleans Saints (5-5) wrap up Thanksgiving’s tripleheader in Week 12. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Saints odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Buffalo is coming off a 41-15 beatdown at home by the Indianapolis Colts and RB Jonathan Taylor, who set an Indy record with 5 touchdowns. The Bills, who were 7-point favorites, fell out of first place in the AFC East and are 2-3 in their last five games.

New Orleans enters on a three-game slide, recently falling as a 3-point underdog at the Philadelphia Eagles 40-29 in Week 11. Since QB Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending ACL injury in a 36-27 win over the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, the Saints are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS with QB Trevor Siemian under center.

Also see: All Week 12 odds and lines

Bills at Saints odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bills -260 (bet $260 to win $100) | Saints +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills -5.5 (-117) | Saints +5.5 (-103)
Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Betting stats:

ATS: Bills 5-4-1 | Saints 5-5
O/U: Bills 5-5 | Saints 6-4

Bills at Saints key injuries

Bills

None

Saints

DE Marcus Davenport (shoulder) questionable
RB Alvin Kamara (knee) questionable
LT Terron Armstead (knee) questionable
RB Mark Ingram (knee) questionable
OT Ryan Ramczyk (knee) questionable
TE Adam Trautman (knee) IR-out

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Bills at Saints odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 30, Saints 21

Money line

PASS. The Bills’ -260 price is too steep. If you really want to back the Buffalo money line, don’t wager more than a half unit.

Against the spread

BUFFALO -5.5 (-117) is the way to go. The Bills, who haven’t lost back-to-back regular-season games since Week 5 and Week 6 of last season, have to be fuming after the spanking by the Colts.

The Buffalo defense leads the league with the fewest total yards allowed per game (283.7) and ranks second in passing yards (181.8) and points (17.6) allowed per game.

The New Orleans offense is 24th in yards per game (321.3), 26th in passing yards per game (203.4) and 14th in points per game (25.1).

Those numbers don’t bode well for the home team against a Buffalo squad that will be overly focused on getting back on track.

Over/Under

OVER 46.5 (-112) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Over is 4-0 in the Saints’ last four games and 6-1 in their last seven.

The Over is 4-2 in the Bills’ last six games, including 2-0 in the last two. Plus, the Buffalo offense averages 29.5 points per game to rank second in the NFL.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD	W-L	SP	ROI
SINCE JULY 8	77-52	32-18	+23.42
NFL 2021	12-10	6-4	+0.836
–SP: Strongest plays; ROI*: Return on investment

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Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Indianapolis Colts (5-5) will take on one of the best teams in the AFC Sunday when they visit the Buffalo Bills (6-3). Seeking their third straight win, the Colts have their work cut out for them. Kickoff will be at 1 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium. Below, we look at the Colts vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Colts beat the Jets and Jags in their last two games, scoring a total of 68 points and allowing only 47. They’ve now won four of their last five games, scoring at least 23 points in each of those games. With their recent scoring outburst, the Colts now rank eighth in points and 12th in total yards.

The Bills have been surprisingly inconsistent despite boasting the best defense and second highest-scoring offense in the league. They lost to the Jaguars and Titans in the last four weeks, also beating the Dolphins and Jets convincingly.

Buffalo put up a season-high 489 yards against the Jets, though it did allow 366 yards to New York – their second-most allowed this season.

Colts at Bills odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Colts +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Bills -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Colts +7.5 (-117) | Bills -7.5 (-103)
Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Colts at Bills key injuries

Colts

LB Darius Leonard (ankle) questionable

Bills

OL Spencer Brown (health and safety protocols) questionable
DT Star Lotulelei (health and safety protocols) questionable
LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) questionable

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Colts at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 27, Colts 20

Money line

It’s hard to look past the Bills’ 9-6 loss to the Jaguars two weeks ago because of just how stunning it was. However, I think it was an outlier and not at all representative of how good the Bills are.

So long as QB Josh Allen can avoid costly and ill-advised turnovers – which could be tough against the Colts, who have 21 takeaways this season – the Bills will win this game.

Take the BILLS (-350) to beat the Colts at home.

Against the spread

There are injuries on both sides, but the likely absence of Brown for the Bills could loom large because of how well the rookie has played this season.

The Colts will find a way to keep this one relatively close, as they have most of the season with a 6-4 ATS record.

Furthermore, the Colts are 4-2 ATS as underdogs, only failing to cover against the Seahawks and Titans in the first three weeks of the season.

BET the COLTS +7.5 (-103) to cover.

Over/Under

Both of these defenses are playing relatively well, particularly the Bills’ defense. It’s a big reason the total has only gone Over in four of their nine games this season.

In the last five meetings between these two teams, the Over is just 1-4, as well. The Bills’ defense will force a couple of turnovers on QB Carson Wentz and also slow down RB Jonathan Taylor to limit the Colts’ offense.

BET the UNDER 49.5 (-105).

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Underdog corner: 3 best NFL picks and predictions for Week 11

Assessing the NFL betting odds and lines for Week 11, with three predictions and picks for the best underdog bets to make.

The Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints came through for us and covered as underdogs in Week 10, while the Las Vegas Raiders fell far short.

That makes it eight winning weeks out of 10 here this season for an overall against-the-spread (ATS) record of 22-8 with 18 outright winners.

Here are our NFL underdog ATS picks and predictions of Week 11.

NFL underdog predictions: Week 11

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:06 p.m. ET.

Houston Texans +9.5 (+100) at Tennessee Titans

The AFC-leading Titans (8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS) have won six in a row and covered in five of their last six with the last five coming against 2020 playoff teams.

But with a road game at the suddenly surging New England Patriots looming in Week 12, this is prime letdown spot for Tennessee.

Take the TEXANS +9.5 (+100) and QB Tyrod Taylor and to keep things close in a division game coming off a bye.

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New Orleans Saints +2.5 (-105) at Philadelphia Eagles

Is the wrong team favored here? Here’s the case:

The Saints are a league-best 11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018, including 3-1 and 4-0, respectively, this season.

The Eagles are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this season.

We’ll bank on the league’s best run defense negating the league’s third-best rushing attack and go with the SAINTS +2.5 (-105), hitting the +110 money line as well.

Also see: All Week 11 odds and lines

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Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-117) at Buffalo Bills

This is a rematch of last January’s AFC Wild Card Game won 27-24 by the host Bills.

Buffalo didn’t cover as a touchdown favorite that day and has failed to cover in three of its previous four games this season heading into Sunday’s meeting.

Indy has won four of its last five – losing only to the Titans 34-31 in overtime in Week 8 – and figures to keep things tight in Orchard Park. Take the COLTS +7.5 (-117) catching more than a TD.

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets odds: Player prop bets

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at New York Jets odds and expert player prop predictions and best bets.

At 1 p.m. ET Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (5-3) will take on the New York Jets (2-6). The game is set to take place at MetLife Stadium, the home of the Jets. Below, we look at the Bills at Jets player props, and make our best NFL picks and predictions.

The Bills are coming into this one off a disappointing 9-6 loss to the Jags.

There was just five field goals made with no touchdowns. QB Josh Allen did not get going. There is hope on the horizon, as the Bills have won by double figures in each of the games following a loss this season.

As for the Jets, they should be getting QB Mike White back after being knocked out of the team’s prime-time throttling at the hand of the Colts.

That said, there are some player prop odds to heavily consider in this one. Let’s dive into them.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets odds: Player prop bets

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 76.5 receiving yards (-114)

The Jets are awful at just about every defensive category when it comes to passing. They rank 29th in opponent’s completion percentage. They rank 30th in opponent’s passing yards per game.

The list goes on, but the gist is the same. With Allen looking to bounce back, Diggs should get the bulk of the action. Diggs has topped 76 yards in three games this season.

He’s topped in 3 of his last 5 as well, struggling out of the gate. He’s been in full force these past few weeks, and he should be a premier target in a pass-heavy offense going against a soft pass defense.

A + B + C = take Diggs Over prop.

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Jets RB Michael Carter UNDER 40.5 rushing yards (-108)

There are a few things that should be expected of this game. With Buffalo’s ability to bounce back and Jets returning White, New York’s run game may be forgotten.

Combine that with the fact that the Jets should be trailing most of the game, and you already have a set up not friendly for running the ball.

But, one must also keep in mind that the Bills have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. They’re allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards per game.

Buffalo is going to be missing Tremaine Edmunds, so they’ll be short a key linebacker. Nonetheless, they should certainly be expecting to shore up their defensive line and force White to beat them.

With that in mind, fading Carter is smart. Despite having ten-plus carries in 5 straight games, he’s had under 40 yards in three of them.

Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 2.5 passing touchdowns (+146)

The Bills rank fourth in points per game and are captained by a MVP frontrunner.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets have the worst scoring defense in the league, giving up over 31 points per game. This should be a heyday for Allen.

He’s thrown 3 or more touchdowns in 3 of his last 6. Going against a defense that could allow 5 or more touchdowns in this game, Allen’s prop makes complete sense.

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo at New York odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Buffalo Bills (5-3) head to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-6) Sunday in Week 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Jets odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Bills had an off week as they lost 9-6 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9, in a game that featured just five field goals. MVP candidate Josh Allen was largely invisible in what was easily his worst game of the season. He’ll look to bounce back against a susceptible Jets defense.

The Jets will be getting QB Mike White back after he was forced to leave his last start due to injury. White almost took down the Cincinnati Bengals in an impressive first start of the season. Rookie QB Zach Wilson is listed as doubtful.

New York fell 45-30 to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9 with QB Josh Johnson under center for most of the game in primetime after the White injury. The Jets enter Week 10 as heavy underdogs.

Bills at Jets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bills -850 (bet $850 to win $100) | New York +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
Against the spread (ATS): Buffalo -12.5 (-115) | New York +12.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bills at Jets key injuries

Buffalo

LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) out
RB Zach Moss (concussion) questionable

New York

DL Shaq Lawson (hamstring) questionable
QB Zach Wilson (knee) doubtful
WR Corey Davis (hip) questionable
RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring) questionable
LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (toe) questionable

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Bills at Jets odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Buffalo 28, New York 13

Money line

PASS on the money line. There’s no reason to risk a bet on Buffalo at -850, especially since it just lost to Jacksonville. It makes no sense to back the money line here after that pitiful showing.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to BUFFALO -12.5 (-115) as Allen should bounce back in a big way Sunday.

The Bills have beaten their opponent by at least 15 in the game following each of their previous losses this season. The Jets rank 30th in opponents passing yards per game.

Without DE Carl Lawson, who they signed in the offseason and sustained a season-ending injury, the Jets pass rush just isn’t capable of putting much pressure on quarterbacks. Allen should be getting whatever he wants Sunday.

Buffalo gives up the fewest passing yards per game and the Jets and their non-existent run game will struggle to move the ball.

Over/Under

BET on the UNDER 47.5 (-110) as the jury is still out on White. He throttled the Bengals, but that was following a huge win for Cincinnati, a premier letdown game.

The Jets shouldn’t get much offensively against the most aggressive pass defense in the league. With Buffalo ranking first in takeaways per game and the Jets tied for last, this should be a slaughtering.

The Bills are still averaging under 30 points per game, so they’d need to eclipse their average and then get some help from New York for the total to go Over.

I don’t see that happening, especially with the Bills defense giving up just 9 points to a better Jaguars team last week.

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Buffalo Bills (5-2) travel to TIAA Bank Field for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff with the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) Sunday. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Jaguars odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Buffalo handled business with a 26-11 victory vs. the Miami Dolphins in Week 8. The game was a lot closer than the final score indicates and the Bills pushed as 15-point home favorites. Buffalo is 4-2-1 ATS and 3-4 O/U.

Jacksonville was embarrassed in a 31-7 blowout at the Seattle Seahawks who had backup QB Geno Smith under center. The Jaguars’ only victory this year was against the Dolphins in London. Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS and 2-5 O/U.

Bills at Jaguars odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bills -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100) | Jaguars +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills -14.5 (-108) | Jaguars +14.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Bills at Jaguars key injuries

Bills

TE Dawson Knox (hand) out
LG Jon Feliciano (calf) out
RT Spencer Brown (back) out
WR Cole Beasley (ribs) questionable
SS Jordan Poyer (shoulder) questionable

Jaguars

RB James Robinson (heel) questionable

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Bills at Jaguars odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 27, Jaguars 21

Money line

PASS because I’d never lay -1100 with any NFL regular-season favorite regardless of lopsided the matchup may be. There’s no doubt Buffalo should win this game and I don’t have a problem with the pricing.

And even though I “lean” to Jacksonville plus the points in this spot, I cannot make a good enough case on the underdog to “sprinkle” on the Jaguars (+650).

However, crazier upsets have happened. For instance, Buffalo upset the Minnesota Vikings in 2018 as 16.5-point road underdogs in Josh Allen‘s rookie season. Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence and head coach Urban Meyer could certainly pull off a miracle here.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the JAGUARS +14.5 (-112) because “fading the market” is the strongest handicapping angle in this game. All of Buffalo’s perceived edges (quarterback, coaching and defense) are baked into line.

In fact, the Bills opened as 10-point favorites before the market steamed it up to the current number. According to Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the handle is on Buffalo’s spread and we know 90% of the public doesn’t win money in sports betting.

Furthermore, Football Outsiders grades the Bills as the most efficient team in the NFL and the Jaguars rank 30th in their total DVOA metric. But, Football Outsiders also ranks Buffalo dead-last in performance variance.

Meaning the Bills have lapses in execution. Maybe Jacksonville catches Buffalo snoozing in what’s a sandwich-spot between two division games for the Bills.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 48.5 (-112) because there’s a smidge of “reverse line movement” towards the Under.

For instance, more than 60% of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total of the Bills-Jaguars has been lowered from the 49.5-point opener.

Also, Buffalo has several injuries on its offense and if the Bills are going to lay a dud anywhere it’ll be on offense. Allen could be without his slot wide receiver (Beasley), an emerging tight end (Knox) and two offensive linemen.

That said, my prediction aligns with the oddsmakers’ projected total so there’s no value in me betting the Under 48.5 (-108).

Week 9 best bets

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Week 8 odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Dolphins (1-6) visit the Buffalo Bills (4-2) Sunday in Week 8 for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Highmark Stadium (on CBS). Below, we look at the Dolphins vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Miami enters on a 6-game slide after winning its opener. The most recent loss was a heartbreaking 30-28 setback in Week 7 to the Atlanta Falcons, who kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired.

The Bills will be well-rested, coming off a bye. Their last game was a 34-31 loss at the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football in Week 6. With 12 seconds to go, the Bills came up short on a quarterback sneak on 4th-and-1 at the Titans 3-yard line when they could have tied it with a field goal. The loss snapped a four-game win streak for Buffalo.

Dolphins at Bills odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:48 a.m. ET.

Money line: Dolphins +650 (bet $100 to win $650) | Bills -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +14.5 (-117) | Bills -14.5 (-103)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Betting stats:

ATS: Dolphins 2-5 | Bills 4-2
O/U: Dolphins 4-3 | Bills 3-3

Dolphins at Bills key injuries

Dolphins

LB Jerome Baker (knee) questionable
CB Noah Igbinoghene (knee) questionable
C Greg Mancz (groin) questionable
WR DeVante Parker (shoulder) questionable

Bills

TE Dawson Knox (hand) out
RT Spencer Brown (back) questionable

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Dolphins at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 38, Dolphins 13

Money line

PASS. The Bills (-1100) will no doubt win, but backing them at 11 times your return is not wise nor worth the risk. Let’s make money on the spread below.

Against the spread

BUFFALO -14.5 (-103) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. Sure, it’s a lot of points, but the Bills are the much better team.

Buffalo went to South Florida in Week 2 and spanked Miami 35-0. Even though Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa should play more than two series this time around – he exited early with a rib injury in the first meeting – the Bills shouldn’t have a problem handing it to the Fins once again.

Buffalo has dominated this series lately, winning the last six games, including five by double digits. Three of those victories were by at least 17 points: 56-26 at home last season, 37-20 at Miami in 2019 and 42-17 at home in 2018.

Miami is on an 0-4 ATS run, including as a 1.5-point underdog in the 30-28 loss to Atlanta. Buffalo had run off 4 consecutive covers until its 3-point loss at Tennessee.

This really is a mismatch.

Buffalo’s defense leads the league in total yards allowed (270.2), passing yards allowed (180.5) and points allowed per game (16.3).

Miami’s offense is 28th in total yards per game (307.6), 31st in rushing yards per game (80.1) and 29th in points per game (18.1).

Over/Under

BET OVER 48.5 (-108) to WIN 0.5 UNITS.

Buffalo might be able to take care of the Over on its own. The Bills have scored at least 31 points in their past five contests and averaged 39.0 points per game in the four previous games before losing to the Titans.

Meanwhile, the Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games.

Keep an eye on the weather, however. The forecast calls for a “possible light rain.” A change to a high probability of rain, it would be wise to bet less.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD	W-L	SP	ROI
SINCE JULY 8	73-47	29-17	+21.257
–SP: Strongest plays; ROI*: Return on investment

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