The Ravens are one of the most perplexing offenses in the NFL currently. Their style of a run heavy offense with a dual-threat QB in Lamar Jackson is not uncommon, but the way that it’s executed has never quite been seen before. The way that the …
The Ravens are one of the most perplexing offenses in the NFL currently. Their style of a run heavy offense with a dual-threat QB in Lamar Jackson is not uncommon, but the way that it’s executed has never quite been seen before. The way that the team sells it’s trickery, misdirection, and plays in general has challenged and confused every team in it’s way so far.
Buffalo is an enigma, though. A resilient team that has been in an uphill battle all season, on and off of the field. Facing criticism from many for a schedule that’s out of their control, doubts about Josh Allen, coaching, and more. They’ve risen to the occasion, and are one of the best teams in the AFC and NFL currently. They are certainly chomping at the bit for this opportunity to cement their place along with the greats in 2019.
Joining host Matt John for this episode, are the Managing Editor of Billswire, Nick Wojton. Secondly, a friend and colleague of Nick’s from college, Sean Grogan, who covers the Baltimore Ravens for Cecil Whig via cecildaily.com, to discuss the various aspects, story lines, and more for this huge AFC match up:
This Sunday has a big game feel to it. Sure, the Bills just defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, with the National Spotlight firmly on them, but there is something special about this game against Baltimore.
This Sunday has a big game feel to it. Sure, the Bills just defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, with the national spotlight firmly on them, but there is something special about this game against the Ravens.
How do you gameplan for a team of the caliber and level that the Ravens are playing at right now? It’s not as easy as it would seem. The Ravens offense is unique, and it’s key piece, the sophomore sensation Lamar Jackson, is having an MVP-caliber season. His speed, combined with his growing passing ability, and the offensive units ability to sell fake out plays, has stumped the best defensive coordinators across the NFL, including one of the greatest minds in pro football history, Bill Belichick.
The challenge is one that the Bills are certainly up for, and another opportunity to prove that they’re for real. The coordinators and players have their work cut out for them. In this episode, podcast hosts Matt and Jeremy examine what they believe that the Bills have to do to try and slow down one of the fastest offenses running in the NFL.
The AFC playoff picture got a little bit more interesting with the Patriots loss. There are races for the AFC East, South, and Wild Cards.
It might be time to talk about the Patriots but we will know more after this week against the Chiefs. It’s definitely time to talk about the Ravens and how they’ve looked like an unstoppable force. Even with the Texans’ impressive victory, there’s a challenger lurking in the South. The AFC West is still the Chiefs to lose.
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
AFC East
New England Patriots 10-2
New England had to go 2-2 in their stretch of games that started with the Eagles and ended with the Chiefs. That’s exactly what was said last week. It still stands. Of course, winning against Kansas City is probably in their best interest. They still have the inside track at winning the AFC East, but a victory against the Chiefs may also assure them a bye.
The Bills have a legit shot at winning the AFC East. Of course, they will have to beat the Ravens and Steelers first and then beat the Patriots in New England. They could enter Week 17 needing a win to get to the playoffs.
The Buffalo Bills won big on Thanksgiving, landing their first “statement win”, against the Dallas Cowboys with the world watching. Buffalo, for the last 20 years, has been a team that collapsed when the national spotlight was placed on them, but …
The Buffalo Bills won big on Thanksgiving, landing their first “statement win”, against the Dallas Cowboys with the world watching. Buffalo, for the last 20 years, has been a team that collapsed when the national spotlight was placed on them, but this was different.
The Bills delivered in a big way, and embarrassing the Cowboys, in their home stadium, and in a game that they have played in every year, since the 1960’s. I’ll admit, that it was strange to watch the Bills in a scenario like this, and a player in a Bills jersey eating a turkey leg to close out the game.
The offense fired on all cylinders, with Josh Allen moving the ball efficiently, by air, connecting with Cole Beasley, who was out for revenge against his former team. Devin Singletary caught a touchdown pass himself, as well as dominating on the ground. Allen looked like the franchise quarterback that Buffalo has long awaited, for the first time. It was certainly a defining game.
The Bills defense handled itself well. Giving up touchdowns to Dallas on their first and last possessions only, they did well, disrupting the number one ranked offense in the NFL. Dak Prescott, in an important contract situation this season, turned the ball over several times. He had defenders in his face all night, and even Ezekiel Elliott couldn’t get anything going.
Buffalo looked good when the lights shined bright, but what lays in front of them is another challenge, in the form of the red hot Baltimore Ravens. It’s hard to not try and enjoy this win against Dallas on a special occasion. With 10 days to prepare for the offensive onslaught that Lamar Jackson has brought against the best of the NFL, there is a lot more work that has to be done before the real celebrating can commence.
Billswire Podcast host Matt Johnson explores the win and outlook towards Baltimore in Week 13:
Following their biggest win in recent history, the Bills feel it’s time people take notice.
Entering Thursday’s Thanksgiving showdown vs. the Dallas Cowboys, the Bills were not receiving any respect.
Despite being 8-3, the Bills were 7.5-point underdogs to start the week against the 6-5 Cowboys, and the talk was mainly surrounding their weak schedule and unimpressive wins vs. bad teams.
Following their 26-15 win on the national stage, that saw the Bills improve to 9-3 for the first time since 1996, several players on the Bills felt it was time people start paying them their due.
As the clock wound down on one of the biggest wins in recent Bills history, defensive end Shaq Lawson had plenty to say on the sideline.
“Bills back. If we don’t got y’all respect now, we got this [expletive] for real,” Lawson said.
“They gonna respect Bills Mafia.”
Lawson wasn’t alone. As the team made it’s way down the tunnel towards the locker room, following the victory, passion was oozing out of the players.
Jon Feliciano directly behind him added, “are not you entertained?!”
While being the underdog provides a certain ‘chip on your shoulder’ that drives players, at some point everyone wants acknowledgment for their hard work and success.
“The film spoke for itself today,” Bills defensive tackle Jordan Phillips told reporters. “We came out and did our thing. Showed the world what we got. Put the world on notice. We were the worst 8-3 team in the NFL, now hopefully we get a little respect. We’ll see how that goes.”
Bills safety Jordan Poyer was asked if this win can be classified as a statement win for Buffalo.
“I believe so,” Poyer said at his locker. “The world believed that we couldn’t come in here and do what we did today and you know, we showed what we could do. Everybody doubting us. Everybody, but the people in this locker room, believing that we couldn’t win… but the guys in this locker room, the coaches in this locker room, the organization, we believed that we were going to come in here and win and it showed today. ”
While many players and coaches on the Bills are often tight lipped regarding their feelings towards being disrespected by those outside the organization, Thanksgiving felt different.
Many of the players on the team shared pictures to their Instagram accounts of network analysts picking the Cowboys to win, adding fuel to the growing sense of being disrespected.
In many ways Week 13 felt personal. Perhaps it was being on national TV, it being Thanksgiving, or just the fact that after 12 games the Bills have the third-best record in the conference and have no control over who they face on their schedule. All they can control is beating the teams they face.
Next up, the Bills get to take on the hottest team in the NFL, in the Baltimore Ravens. If they find a way to get that win, then absolutely no one will be denying the Bills the respect that they feel they deserve.
Sep 15, 2019; Landover, MD, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) runs after a catch against the Washington Redskins during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports For the first time since 1996, …
Sep 15, 2019; Landover, MD, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) runs after a catch against the Washington Redskins during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
For the first time since 1996, the Buffalo Bills are 8-3, and for the first time since 1994, they are playing football on Thanksgiving. Dallas has been a regular host of the Thanksgiving Day series since 1966, and the Cowboys have a rich history against the Buffalo Bills. It is one of the most anticipated games of Thanksgiving this year.
Here is everything that you need to know about the history of the Cowboys and Buffalo Bills, including their respective Thanksgiving Day stats:
The Bills and Cowboys first met on September 17, 1971, in Buffalo. The Cowboys won that game 49-37.
They met in two Superbowls, 27 and 28, with Dallas winning both encounters.
Their most recent encounter took place on December 27, 2015, and the Bills won that encounter 16 – 6.
The Cowboys lead the all-time series, including the two Super Bowl games, 8 games to 4 and have outscored Buffalo 280-181 over those 12 encounters.
The Cowboys played their first Thanksgiving Day game on November 24, 1966, defeating the Cleveland Browns 26-14.
Dallas would hold that tradition annually, with the exception of 1975 and 1977, in an effort to help out the St. Louis (Arizona) Cardinals boost stadium ticket sales.
Dallas is 31-18-1 on Thanksgiving.
Buffalo started playing Thanksgiving Day games while in the AFL. They played their first against the New York Titans (Jets) in a 21-14 loss.
The modern iteration of the Buffalo Bills have never hosted a Thanksgiving Day game, but played in five during their AFL years when no team had that home game guaranteed.
The Bills are 3-4-1 on Thanksgiving.
2019 So Far
Coming off of a 10-6 season and winning the NFC East for the second time in three years, the Cowboys are having a interesting year to say the least. Dallas lost in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to the Los Angeles Rams, and there were very high expectations coming into this season.
The Cowboys are currently 6-5, narrowly sitting atop the NFC East with Philadelphia only one game back at 5-6. As close as the race for the NFC East has been, both Philadelphia and Dallas are not being viewed as very competitive amongst the entire NFL, and are currently the worst team by record in the NFC Playoffs. A rather disappointing year that has many of the Dallas fan base calling for Jason Garrett’s removal as head coach, again.
2019 has been rocky from the start, as star running back Ezekiel Elliott held out for a bigger contract, a few years short of the expiration of his rookie deal. Considering the workload that has been put on “Zeke” over his very young NFL career, it was relatively fair, considering the toll that running back’s endure. However, the hold out led to some awkward moments and uncomfortable statements between Owner Jerry Jones and Elliott.
Also, a looming question heading into 2019 was quarterback Dak Prescott’s contract situation. Prescott has played relatively well in his tenure, sporting a 38-21 record as a starter with 14,309 yards passing, 88 touchdowns and 35 interceptions. He will most likely be extended with Dallas, as he’s given stability at his position that the Cowboys didn’t have during the latter years of Tony Romo’s career. Whether or not Dak has performed well in clutch moments, has been the question of his biggest detractors, and that is an area that he has lacked in.
Dallas began the season with three straight wins, defeating the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins. A great start, and Dallas looked like a top tier team and a definite Super Bowl contender, granted the strength of schedule. Prescott was having some of his best numbers, and the team, as a unit, was a well oiled machine.
However, it was the three games after that win streak that gave the Cowboys a stigma for 2019 that they “couldn’t beat good teams”. Losing to the New Orleans Saints 10-12, Green Bay Packers 24-34, and even a massive upset by the New York Jets, left Dallas feeling like an average team that couldn’t compete against the class of the division.
Since then, they’ve defeated the Eagles 37-10, completed the sweep of the Giants by winning 37-18, lost to the Minnesota Vikings 24-28, beat Detroit 35-27 and fell to the New England Patriots 9-13.
Dallas currently ranks first in “Team Offense” earning 4,767 yards over their first 11 games. They are the number one passing offense as well, with 3,339 passing yards. They are the eighth ranked rushing offense with 1,428 rushing yards, nearly 1,000 yards behind the Baltimore Ravens who sit at first.
Dak is currently the number one passer in the NFL, with 3,433 yards passing, tied at fourth in passing touchdowns with Kirk Cousins at 21 and tied for fifth in interceptions at 10 with Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
“Zeke” is ranked seventh in rushing with 919 yards on the ground and tied at seven rushing touchdowns with Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Todd Gurley and Bills QB Josh Allen. Dak Prescott has 197 rushing yards to his credit, good enough for 60th in the NFL, as well as three rushing touchdowns of his own.
Amari Cooper comes in at sixth in receiving, amassing 886 yards and he’s tied for fifth with touchdown receptions, at seven. Michael Gallup is the next best receiver, sitting at 21st in the NFL with 733 receiving yards. Randall Cobb at 39th with 581 yards.
As a defense, Dallas sits sixth in the NFL, allowing 3,503 yards against them and the seventh most points scored against them at 210. They are sixth in passing defense, giving up 2,350 yards by air and 12 touchdowns. The weakest aspect of their defense is against the rush, with 1,153 yards ran against them, good enough for 15th in the NFL.
How they match up with Buffalo?
There is certainly some intrigue with this game. Both Dallas and Buffalo are teams with stigmas. They can beat who they are supposed to beat, but can’t get the job done against winning teams. It rings true, as Dallas has not yet defeated a team with a winning record as of Week 13. The only team that Buffalo has defeated with a winning record currently, is the Tennessee Titans.
The Bills rush defense is at great risk this week, although it has improved the last few weeks. Ezekiel Elliott is one of the best running backs in the game, and an excellent pass-catching back. We all watched the defense that New England brought forth on Dallas last week, limiting the best passing offense to no touchdowns. The Bills have a tough defense as well, and it will be interesting to see if the Bills can duplicate or come close to New England’s performance.
Offensively, the Bills moved the ball effectively against Denver, who is ranked in the Top 10. Smart, calculated football to keep moving the chains with more usage for Singletary and Gore. The Cowboys weak rush defense should be a target for Buffalo in this game. Also, Cole Beasley is making his big return to the team where he had spent many years at. Beasley was excellent in the short to mid-range passing game last week, and it would be a good idea to continue to build off of that.
The Cowboys obviously have home field advantage on their side, and that typically bodes well with teams on short weeks. Traveling teams are 5-7 on the year, which aren’t terrible odds for the Bills.
Enjoy this game, and the other two throughout the day, with family and friends, the best way to enjoy football. Happy Thanksgiving from myself and the rest of the Billswire staff to you and yours!
The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown over the 8-3 Bills, and the advanced stats say that may not even be enough
The bye weeks are over and half of the league’s divisional races are all but decided. One such race that is far from over, however, is the NFC East.
The Dallas Cowboys currently sit as the favorites, with a 64% chance to win their second consecutive division title, per FiveThirtyEight. The Philadelphia Eagles are just a game behind, and could match the Cowboys win total with a victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. That is, unless the Cowboys take down the 8-3 Buffalo Bills.
Dallas comes in to Thursday afternoon as 6.5 point favorites despite two fewer wins than Buffalo has on the year. On the surface that may seem strange, but the underlying numbers all heavily favor the Cowboys, especially statistics rooted in Expected Points.
Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.
A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.
Buffalo goes from a top-10 team to a bottom-10 team after adjusting for strength of schedule. No other team comes close to that kind of a change. So when you see the 6-5 Cowboys favored by a touchdown against an 8-3 team, there’s your reason.
We can take these adjustments one step further and apply them to upcoming games to see how Dallas’ offense matches up against Buffalo’s defense, and vice versa. This, along with a variable added to account for home field advantage, gives Dallas an even greater advantage by my model. Here’s how the model sees each NFC East game shaking out this week:
My model sees Dallas as double-digit favorites this week at home. I’m not suggesting you go put all your money on the Cowboys to cover, but you should feel confident that they won’t ruin your Thanksgiving dinner this year. The Bills’ strength on defense is in the passing game, while their run defense is the second worst in the NFL by my measure.
The Cowboys’ passing offense has torn apart every opponent this season, save for the monsoon game in New England, so while this game is ripe for a big Ezekiel Elliott outing, I wouldn’t fear this Bills secondary enough to take passes away from Dak Prescott.
These predictions also account for quarterback play, which is the main reason Carolina is favored by so much. Dwayne Haskins did get his first career win last week, but his numbers are still in the basement of the NFL.
Of the 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in 2019, Haskins ranks 40th in average EPA. Only recently benched Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley has been worse on a per-play basis. This prediction is less a praising of the Panthers and more an indictment of Washington’s play this season.
Philadelphia is coming off of a stinker of a game against Seattle, where they turned the ball over four times and didn’t get into the endzone until the final seconds of the game. They’ve had a tough schedule so far, having played five teams in the top 10 in adjusted EPA differential, which is why they still sit at 11th in our ranks. The fact that this one is in Miami is really the only reason this isn’t the largest spread of the week.
Last but not least is the New York Giants.
Green Bay is coming off of an absolute beating at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, but that doesn’t mean they’re a bad team. It more solidified the fact that San Francisco, New England, and Baltimore are in a class of their own this year. On the other side, Daniel Jones is sitting at 37th in EPA/dropback, largely due to some costly sacks. No team has lost more EPA on sacks this year than the Giants. On plays where the quarterback is sacked, the Giants offense leads the league in fumbles, lost fumbles, and touchdowns given up to the defense.
The Cowboys are the only NFC East team to play on Thursday, and if it follows along with what the advanced stats are telling us, this should be a somewhat stress-free Thanksgiving for Cowboys fans.
They’ll need it too, if they want to keep up their advantage in the playoff race in these final weeks of the season.
There are seven bets for three games on Thanksgiving.
Most people who read the weekly best bets know my rules. One of the rules is don’t just bet to bet. Another rule is don’t bet every game because it’s impossible to make money. Well, there is one day — in the regular season since we have to bet every playoff game that is an exception to that rule and that’s Thanksgiving day. There’s nothing better than waking up with a wager on the early game followed by constantly checking your phone during the Thanksgiving meal — insert drunk Uncle joke here because everyone makes one. The obvious next move is to fade in and out of sleep in the afternoon watching football on the couch and moving to a nice adult beverage and the night game to wrap up a beautiful football filled Thursday.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Buffalo Bills podcast following Week 12 in over Denver Broncos, ahead of Thanksgiving meetings vs. Cowboys.
The Buffalo Bills won their second straight game to improve to 8-3 on the season for the first time since 1996. It was a remarkable game, with the team displaying proficiency in all three phases of football that put up points and yardage on a top defense, halting a strong run offense, and did it’s job on special teams.
Denver had played much better than it’s record until this point, and they hit an absolute brick wall at New Era Field. The Bills defense only allowed 167 yards of total offense in Week 12. Buffalo downed talented running backs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. In fact, it seemed that Broncos play calling didn’t aim to target Buffalo’s sketchy run defense in the second half, as they became very pass happy and one-dimensional.
In the Broncos closest venture towards the end zone, they could not get the job done as Tre’Davious White was essentially handed an interception and a broken route intended for Courtland Sutton, who was held for one catch in the outing.
The offense did well, aside from a bad Josh Allen interception that gave Denver some of the best field positioning that they had all day. 244 yards on the ground, again dominated by Devin Singletary.
However, the big news was that, Frank Gore, the journeyman running back, passed Barry Sanders to become third all-time in rushing yards. A tremendous accomplishment, and extra satisfying that it happened with him wearing a Bills jersey.
Buffalo prepares for Dallas on a short week for this Thursday, as the Bills play their first Thanksgiving game in several years. The quick turnaround has affected many teams this year, not being allowed to play to their full potential. Everyone is already hard at work at One Bills Drive to ensure the Bills are prepared for their latest National Spotlight opportunity.
Podcast Hosts Matt and Jeremy examine the win over Denver, and the road to Dallas:
Following Week 12’s 20-3 Bills victory over the Broncos, cornerback Chris Harris no longer seemed to want to joke around when it came to discussing Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Despite Thanksgiving being only a few days away, one Denver player is eating a bit of crow rather than turkey on Sunday.
Following Week 12’s 20-3 Bills victory over the Broncos, cornerback Chris Harris no longer seemed to want to joke around when it came to discussing Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
“If I can give him a little advice… I don’t want to actually,” Harris said with a grin and chuckle. “I’m going to say all positive about him today.”
Perhaps it was best that Harris kept that advice to himself, as he ended up getting beat on a 34-yard deep throw from Allen to wide receiver John Brown, that put the Bills up 20-3 in the third quarter:
“That [expletive] is over with now,” Harris said straight faced in front of his locker.
When asked about the throw that beat him, Harris dismissed it as more of his error, than it being a great play by Allen, or Brown.
“They had run that play like 10 times,” Harris said. “I was just pressing, trying to make a play for our team… so, that’s all it was.”
When John Brown was asked about the TD score, he seemed to sing a different tune.
“He’s a great DB, he reads concepts,” Brown said after the game.
“Every time we came to the flat, you know, he was jumping inside preparing for the slant, or the curl route. I went to the coaches and I told them, you know, double move and you know it was a great call, at the right time.”
While the win put the Bills at 8-3 for the first time since 1996, quieting a player that talked some smack before the game had to be the cherry on top.
As Jalen Ramsey learned first-hand last season, if you’re a DB going up against Allen and the Bills, you might be better off saving the trash talk for after the game.
