The Arizona Diamondbacks (22-58) and St. Louis Cardinals (38-41) continue their three-game series Tuesday with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis beat Arizona in the first game of the series 7-1 by raking the Diamondbacks for six runs in the bottom of the 7th inning.
Season series: Cardinals lead 4-1.
LHP Caleb Smith is on the rubber for the Diamondbacks. Smith is 2-3 with a 3.03 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 across six starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
RHP Carlos Martinez makes his 15th start for the Cardinals. Martinez is 3-9 with a 6.78 ERA (73 IP, 55 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 8-2, with 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 7 BB and 2 K against the Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday.
- Martinez earned a no-decision May 27 at the D-Backs with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K in St. Louis’s 5-4 win.
- vs. Diamondbacks on the current roster: 75 at-bats with a .173/.262/.240 slash line, 22/7 K/BB, 0 HR and 4 RBIs.
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Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Cardinals -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) | Cardinals -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Diamondbacks 7, Cardinals 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the DIAMONDBACKS (+125) for a half unit despite how historically bad they’ve been on the road this season because the Cardinals’ implied win probability of 60.8% is too high.
First of all, Martinez’s pitching peripherals are even worse than his basic numbers. He grades in the 27th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, chase rate, whiff rate, expected wOBA, K% and expected slugging percentage.
Also, St. Louis’s bullpen is very unreliable so the door is never closed for an Arizona comeback. The Cardinals relievers have the league’s worst SIERA, BB% and xFIP.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) is too expensive considering Arizona has the fifth-worst cover rate in MLB as a road dog (18-24 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
I “LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit because of a couple of “trendy” reasons and Arizona’s bullpen being even worse than St. Louis’s.
For instance, the D-Backs relievers have the worst WAR in the majors, fourth-most home runs allowed per nine innings and the second-worst left-on-base percentage.
St. Louis is 9-5 O/U in Martinez’s 14 starts this season, the D-Backs went Over the total in six straight road games prior to the first game of this series which ended that streak. The Over has cashed in four of the last five Diamondbacks-Cardinals meetings.
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