Tag: Amari Cooper

How Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott rank as a crime-fighting, pass-game duo

Standard metrics don’t do justice to the incredible start to Amari Cooper’s tenure in Dallas

Dallas has built its identity in the last decade on running the football.  They’ve had a 1,000+ yard rusher in five of the last six years, with the lone exception being Ezekiel Elliott’s 983 yards in a 10-game 2017 season.  And while Zeke is still on pace for 300 carries in 2019, there are signs that an offense built around the passing game will give them the best chance to win.

And they’ve finally got a receiver paired with Dak Prescott who can lead them through it.

Through nine games this season, Amari Cooper’s 848 yards is already more than any Cowboys receiver has had in a single season since Dez Bryant tallied 1,320 in 2014.  His connection with Prescott was there from their very first game together, catching a touchdown pass on just his third target as a Cowboy.

There’s been an interesting question of which QB-WR combination has been the best in recent years floating around, and much like the MVP discussion, Prescott and Cooper have been frequently absent from the conversation.  While pairs like Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, or Matt Ryan and Julio Jones tend to be the first places people go, Dak and Amari have a strong case that often goes ignored.  Let’s change that.

Completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) is becoming more and more common in quarterback evaluation.  It takes recent NFL data and calculated the likelihood of a given pass being completed based on target depth and side of the field.  Next Gen Stats also calculates a version of this that factors in receiver separation, but we get a very close approximation using our own data.  I took the calculation for CPOE (courtesy of The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin) and modified it slightly to the CPOE for wide receivers.  From there, we can combine that with a receiver’s actual catch rate to find their catches over expected.  This is useful because while efficiency is important, volume also matters when talking about wide receivers.  Receivers who command more targets are more important to an offense than efficient receivers who don’t get targeted much.  Catches over expectation aren’t very sticky year-to-year, but they do correlate well with total receiving EPA, so this should be considered more of a descriptive stat rather than a predictive one.  Here is every receiver season since 2010, with Cowboys highlighted.

Cooper’s nine games in 2019 are already better than the nine games he played last year, and approaching Dez Bryant’s two best totals.  And remember, this is a cumulative statistic.  Cooper has seven more games to go this year.  There’s a really good chance he finishes with the best numbers in a single Cowboys season this decade.

To compare him to some other notable wideouts in the NFL, let’s run the same numbers, but just during the time frame of Cooper’s tenure with Dallas.  Since Week 9 of 2018, only two wide receivers have more catches over expectation than Amari Cooper.

Cooper ranks seventh in total EPA, but he’s also caught more balls than expected than every receiver but Michael Thomas and Tyler Lockett.  He has been a clear No. 1 receiver since the trade, and has helped elevate Prescott’s game when he’s on the field.  Here’s how the Cowboys receivers look by CPOE and EPA/target.

Prescott’s CPOE is the vertical red line, the team’s EPA/target average the horizontal one.

Prescott’s CPOE is at its peak when targeting Cooper and tight end Jason Witten, but his efficiency (measured by EPA/attempt) is miles ahead when throwing at Cooper vs any other receiver.

A look into the receiving success over time since Cooper’s arrival paints another great picture of how important he’s been to this offense.  Here’s the cumulative EPA for each Cowboys receiver with at least 20 targets since Week 9 of 2018.

Nobody even comes close on this team to matching Cooper’s production or his consistency.

The Cowboys’ offense has been overshadowed by a strict commitment to the run game, but it’s time to acknowledge that their passing offense is not only one of the best in the league, and not only features an MVP candidate at quarterback.  It’s also got a star wide receiver producing at a level that rivals any other player in the NFL.

Related Cowboys Data Analysis

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Injury Report: Cowboys entire offensive line hurting ahead of Week 11

The Thursday injury report for the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions leading up to their Week 11 matchup.

The Dallas Cowboys most recent loss has put their backs against the proverbial wall. With that in mind, all hands on deck will be required, not only due to the increased significance of the remainder of the games to be played, but because injuries are mounting. Here’s the latest injury report ahead of the Week 11 game against the Detroit Lions.

There’s positive movement in some aspects. WR Amari Cooper, who’s been dealing with a plethora of nagging lower body injuries this season, was upgraded to limited after not practicing Wednesday. Also limited was guard Zack Martin, and CB/core special teamer C.J. Goodwin.

The rest of the offensive line continues to be banged up. While LT Tyron Smith has participated in both practices this week despite his ankle, his bookend La’el Collins has yet to get any work with ailments to both his knee and his back. Of course, guard Connor Williams was not available due to the arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent earlier in the week, knocking him out of commission for the time being.

At this point, it’s going to largely be on the medical staff to get the players ready to go for game time. Hopefully this rest early in the week will help those who need it play at a high level on Sunday, even without much practice.

The situation is more dire for the Detroit Lions, as their QB Matthew Stafford has yet to practice after missing last week’s game. A back injury is threatening to keep him out of this upcoming contest as well. CB Darius Slay, who did not appear on the official injury report on Wednesday, was downgraded to limited due to an issue with his neck.

Heroes and Goats: Cowboys staff chewing cud while passing game grazes

The Dallas Cowboys were almost saved by a few heroes against the Minnesota Vikings, but there were too many bad performances to get the win.

The Dallas Cowboys bungled away another game where the team killed its chances of walking away victorious. This time, it was a 28-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings has put a playoff run in jeopardy with the tough, upcoming schedule.

Here are the heroes and goats from a disappointing Week 10 loss that dropped the club’s regular-season record to 5-4.

Hero: Dak Prescott

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The only thing the QB didn’t do was put on a cape. Prescott tried to rescue the Cowboys on a night where the play calling put the offense in a bind for 60 minutes. Long second and third down conversions were easily picked up by Prescott, who threw the ball well all game. Prescott carved up the Vikings, throwing for 397 yards and three scores.

Goats: The rush defense

It was a sad performance from the run defense, who was gashed by RB’s Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. The defense gave up 153 yards rushing and was bullied for most of the game. The most embarrassing part was the drive where the Vikings ran it 10 straight times, leading to the game-clinching score.

Hero: Amari Cooper

(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

Cooper continues to impress, despite his numerous ailments. The stud WR caught 11 passes for 147 yards and a score, and Cooper’s footwork along the sidelines was silly. Cooper played at a high level to help the Cowboys’ offense moving the chains and coming back from an early deficit.

Goat: Chidobe Awuzie

It hasn’t been a good stretch for the third-year CB and his shotty play against the Vikings continued. Awuzie remains lost in coverage and still has MAJOR issues with ball location. Awuzie’s poor play on the two-point conversion to Kyle Rudolph was a big part of stunting the comeback.

Hero: Randall Cobb

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

It was Cobb’s first 100 yard game for the Cowboys and he scored on a beautiful 22-yard strike from Prescott. Cobb made some big catches to keep drives alive after getting behind on the down and distances.

Goat: Sean Lee

As good as he played last week, Lee got smoked against the Vikings. Lee was beat twice for touchdowns and got washed out on too many screen plays.

Hero: Robert Quinn

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The veteran DE continued his stellar season with his seventh sack when he took down Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in the second quarter. It also netted Quinn a cool $800,000-plus bonus.

Goats: The coaching staff

We can sit here and talk about not being prepared to start the game, but that’s foolish. The coaches don’t drop passes or miss tackles. What we can blame them for is their decision making and stubbornness.

There is no reason to continue to bash your head into a brick wall; the running game wasn’t working, and the passing game was on fire. Yet here was Kellen Moore’s play calling on first down:

The Cowboys still had a chance to win the game late before two running calls essentially killed Dallas’ chances of winning the game. The play calling was a big issue in the loss.

You can chat with or follow Ben on twitter @BenGrimaldi

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‘Zeke’s not going anywhere’ early Cowboys theme, never changed tune

The Cowboys were unable to get a running game going against Minnesota, but that didn’t stop them from pounding Ezekiel Elliott anyway.

Of all the maddening storylines of Sunday night’s 28-24 loss to Minnesota, the Cowboys’ stubborn insistence on sticking with a rushing attack that simply wasn’t working is near the very top of the list. But that failure in and of itself has two different components to it. There’s the playcalling from coach Jason Garrett and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. And yes, that was atrociously bad in key moments. But there’s also the ineffectiveness of the players actually executing those ground game plays, namely, defending rushing champ Ezekiel Elliott. And that’s the thing that might actually be more concerning for this team in the long run.

The Cowboys have made it clear since his rookie year in 2016 that Elliott is the centerpiece of the offense. With two rushing titles in three seasons (and an equally torrid pace in the season he was suspended for six games), the former top-five draft pick has performed like it, mostly. The message in Dallas is clear: when you play the Cowboys, you’re going to get a heavy dose of No. 21.

But according to owner and general manager Jerry Jones, a different message was broadcast early in Sunday night’s contest.

“You just basically could have put a sign on the start of the game that said ‘Zeke’s not going anywhere,'” Jones told the media after the loss in which Elliott gained just 47 rushing yards despite 20 carries, an average of 2.35 yards per run. “And that was the story of the game.”

“It’s definitely frustrating, Elliott said after the game, his fifth (including playoffs) as a Cowboy in which he gained under 50 yards on the ground. “They’re a pro team, too; they did a good job bottling up the run. They were better than us.”

Wideout Amari Cooper, despite his own performance filled with good numbers and highlight-reel catches, shared in that disappointment.

“It’s very frustrating,” Cooper told reporters. “We love to run the ball here. That’s part of our identity. So when a team takes that away, we’re limited. We have the best running back in the league, so…” Cooper trailed off, seemingly at a loss, before summing up, “We just have to be better.”

Last year’s midseason acquisition of Cooper as a legitimate downfield threat was- theoretically- supposed to not only make it easier for Elliott to find some running room, but also reduce his workload. After nine games thus far in 2019, Elliott has 788 yards on 178 rushing attempts, a per-carry average of 4.4 yards. Nine games into last season, Elliott had 168 carries for 831 yards and a 4.9 average. The first seven of those games came without Cooper on the team.

So let’s review. This season has Amari Cooper in the huddle, Michael Gallup no longer a secret, Randall Cobb in the slot, Jason Witten running Y-options again, Travis Frederick back on the O-line, Tony Pollard providing a speedy change of pace, and wunderkind Kellen Moore dialing up an offense that was supposed to be versatile and multifaceted. Yet in 2019, Elliott is actually getting more chances and doing less with them.

Is this pushing the panic button in the immediate wake of a demoralizing loss? Perhaps in part; no one was all that worried about an Elliott decline last week after he ripped off 139 on the ground in New York and averaged six yards per tote. Much of Monday morning’s concerns are indeed a direct result of Sunday night’s opponent.

“I think it’s definitely one of the best defenses we’ve played this season,” Elliott admitted of the Vikings squad. “Definitely, run defense did a great job just neutralizing our run and really giving us nowhere all day to run the ball.”

“Obviously, there was a lot of attention there,” Garrett told the press of Minnesota’s focus on Elliott. “They have a really good front, and they have good linebackers. They’re a good run defense. They were trying to make sure that they stopped the run. I thought that we did a good job responding to that; we were pretty effective throwing the football.”

Pretty effective. Quarterback Dak Prescott finished the night 28-of-46 for 397 yards and three touchdowns to three different receivers. He took just one sack and logged only one interception, the failed Hail Mary as time expired. Yes, Prescott was “pretty effective.” And that’s what made the coaching staff’s blind allegiance to the middling rushing attack so difficult to watch, especially after the passing game had put the Cowboys in a position to win the game late.

With under two minutes to play, down by four, and on the Minnesota 11-yard-line, Dallas ran Elliott on second down for no gain. And then again on third down for a three-yard loss. Prescott, incidentally, had gone 6-for-7 and 79 yards through the air on the drive up to that point.

So after the rally ultimately fell short, everyone with a microphone and a notepad wanted to grill the Cowboys players, coaches, and brass about why they seemingly took the ball out of Prescott’s hands in crunch time.

“You want to attack different ways,” Garrett said. “It’s important for us to continue to try to run the ball. In normal circumstances, you would think if we give it to Zeke a couple times, second and inside of two yards, we’re going to make that first down. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen in this game.”

“You ask that offensive line, you ask the running back, they’re going to say that they need to execute those plays,” Prescott stated in his postgame press conference. “We get that first down, nobody in here’s even talking about [how] they took the ball out of my hands, right?”

But Elliott didn’t get the first down. Either time. And so everyone is, in fact, talking about how the coaches seemingly took the ball out of Prescott’s hands.

Jones was blunt when asked about the ill-fated decision to force the run late.

“I’m not going to get into that,” he said. “Since it didn’t work, we’d all like to have that back. But you’ve got to keep trying.”

It appears that Garrett and Moore will do exactly that, no matter the opponent, no matter the situation, no matter if it’s working or not.

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Cowboys’ 7 plays that changed the game in 28-24 loss to Vikings

A look back at the 7 biggest plays from the Cowboys’ 28-24 loss to the Vikings using EPA and WP metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys might have suffered their worst loss of the season against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The final score was 28-24, but the biggest takeaway from the game was the plethora of questionable play-calls and mismanaged opportunities. The Cowboys were clearly the better offensive team from a passing standpoint. However, the rushing attack they heavily relied on in the past was a non-factor against the Vikings, and ultimately, it might have been the driving force behind the daunting loss.

It was a game that featured plenty of explosive plays from both offenses. Here are the biggest plays that stood out in the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability with data via nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a given play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

The Plays

No. 1: Kirk Cousins pass short right to Dalvin Cook for 27 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 35%

The Vikings’ first big play of the game came on simple screen pass to Cook. He managed to turn the short pass into an explosive 27 yard catch and run. Cousins was not asked to throw deep against the Cowboys, his average pass on Sunday traveled seven yards through the air. Instead he relied on Cook to generate yards after the catch. Cook totaled 109 yards after the catch and his ability to break tackles and create extra yardage was crucial for the Vikings.

This play would end with a facemask penalty from cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. The resulting catch and 15-yard penalty gave the Vikings field position at the Cowboys’ 10-yard line. They would eventually end the drive with a score, putting them up 7-0 early.

No. 2: Cousins pass short left to Cook for 30 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 21% -> 16%

Once again Cook showed why he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He turned another short screen pass into a huge gain, this time for 30 yards. And much like his first big play this one also ended with a penalty for the Cowboys. A 14-yard roughing the passer call on DeMarcus Lawrence would result in a 44-yard gain for the Vikings.

The Vikings would end the drive with another touchdown. It was tight end Kyle Rudolph that would pick up his second score of the game with linebacker Sean Lee in coverage. The score was now 14-0, but the Cowboys have developed a reputation this season as a team that rallies later in games. This game was no different.

No. 3: Cousins sacked for a loss of 9 yards by Robert Quinn

EPA: -2.3. DAL WP Shift: 13% ->17%

To start the second quarter the Cowboys found themselves in a dire situation. The defense had struggled to contain Cook throughout the first quarter and they desperately needed a stop on third down. So it is no surprise that Quinn came up big for his team when it mattered most. The team needed momentum and Quinn was able to give it to them following this sack.

No. 4: Prescott pass deep right to Amari Cooper for 20 yards

EPA: 2.5. DAL WP Shift: 14% -> 19%

Due to some questionable play-calling on early downs the Cowboys faced plenty of third-and-long situations. Luckily for the Cowboys the combination of Prescott and Cooper has turned into on of the most dependable QB-WR tandems in the NFL. The duo consistently lifted the team in these tight situations, and on this play Cooper displayed his elite awareness skills with a toe drag catch.

No. 5: Prescott pass short left to Michael Gallup for 23 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9. DAL WP Shift: 19% -> 27%

The Cowboys’ offense finally got back on track in the second quarter. After an impressive 20-yard catch from Cooper, it was Gallup that would give the Cowboys their first score of the game. The Vikings were in zone coverage here, but it was a well designed offensive play that had linebacker Eric Kendricks covering Gallup down the middle of the field for the easy score.

No. 6: Prescott pass deep right to Randall Cobb for 22 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 4.4. DAL WP Shift: 36% -> 49%

Late in the first half the Cowboy were presented with a scoring opportunity. From the 22-yard line the expected points from this part of the field was 2.6. Even so, the Cowboys were not looking to enter half-time with a field goal. The team would even the score at 14-14 on a free play as the defense was called for an offside penalty.

Prescott’s improvisation skills came in handy on the explosive pass play and Cobb showed great focus in making the catch. Cobb had his best game as a Cowboy as he accounted for 106 yards, six receptions and a touchdown.

No. 7: Prescott pass deep right to Cooper for 12 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.4. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 51%

The duo of Prescott and Cooper connected on plenty of immaculate catches on the night, but this one by far was the most impressive. This play was a pass with some jet-action from RB Tony Pollard. Prescott rolled out to his right as Cooper ran a comeback route. The ball placement essentially left Cooper in a spot that was impossible to defend. But the accuracy from Prescott was also uncanny.

Where do Cowboys go from here?

It was a tough loss for the Cowboys as Prescott put on another MVP-caliber performance. They lost to a good team, but it did not have to be that way. There were plenty of opportunities to seize the game, but it was the coaching staff that came up short with a game plan that featured plenty of runs on first-and-10. All night the Cowboys had struggled to establish the run. Passing on the other hand was a completely different story. Much like they have all season, the Cowboys have possessed on of the best passing offenses in the league through 10 weeks of football.

Right now the biggest question marks come from the Cowboys’ defensive side of the ball. What has been concerning is the team’s never ending battle  against the run despite being at full strength on the defensive front. Even the pass defense has suffered as of late, as Awuzie has failed to take a major leap in his game now in his third year in the league. Overall, the Cowboys do have the talent and the right personnel to compete for a Super Bowl, but reality has not lined up with the expectations for the 2019 season.

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11 Takeaways: Cowboys run narrative into ground, pass on path to victory

The Cowboys yet again failed to get the job done against another top-team, falling 28-24 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Cowboys can’t seem to do themselves any favors, once again starting slow and digging themselves into a hole which ultimately did them in. They were down two touchdowns before the first quarter ended, but managed to briefly take the lead 21-20 halfway through the third quarter.

Unfortunately, they yet again found themselves on the wrong end of a shootout against one of the better teams in the league. Dallas fell, 28-24, to the Minnesota Vikings, dropping their record to 5-4 on the season. It was a game they rarely looked like things would go their way.

It was over when . . .

. . . Eric Kendricks broke up Dak Prescott’s attempt on 4th and 5 from the Minnesota 14. The Cowboys looked to be in the catbird seat, having drove from their own six to the Minnesota 11, but two Ezekiel Elliott runs pushed them back, and against the wall. Unfortunately, Prescott couldn’t bail them out, after playing so well for the entire game.

Game balls

WR Amari Cooper

It’s impossible to overstate how much Cooper transformed this offense. He had another monster night, catching 11 passes for 147 yards and one touchdown. He was able to showcase everything against the Vikings secondary, but his dramatic sideline toe-taps were the plays that really stood out.

QB Dak Prescott

The best season of Prescott’s career took another step, as he put up a valiant effort in yet another comeback that fell just short. He took it upon himself to throw Dallas back into the game, fearlessly throwing into tight windows and converting third down after third down.

In the end, he threw for 397 yards on 28 of 46 pass attempts, three touchdowns, and one interception (on the last play of the game, a heave into the end zone). The results haven’t been there yet, but these moments and games will soon pay off in the last half of the season.

WR Randall Cobb

It’s been a tough go for the former Packer, but Cobb was able to put together a really nice game, joining Cooper in eclipsing 100 receiving yards (106 on six catches), a feat he accomplished for the first time this season. His beautiful 22-yard touchdown grab at the end of the second quarter made up for the many near-misses that have marred the first half of his season.

Key stat: 2.35

Ezekiel Elliott entered the game averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry this season, yet registered only 2.35 YPC against Minnesota. That didn’t stop the Cowboys from running him 20 times however. The run game was atrocious and entirely unhelpful, seemingly costing the team big, especially considering how well they were able to throw the ball. As a team, they recorded only 50 rushing yards, the second-lowest total of the season (45 in Week 4 vs New Orleans).

Quick takes:

  • As poorly as the Cowboys ran the ball, it was the opposite story for Minnesota. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook rumbled all over the Dallas defense, reminiscent of C.J. Anderson’s performance against them in the playoffs last year. In total, the Vikings ran for 156 total yards, Cook responsible for 97 of them.If only Dallas had a highly-drafted defensive tackle to plug the middle of the defensive line.
  • The Cowboys possess one of the more unique weapons in the NFL in the leg of K Brett Maher. Unfortunately tonight, it seemed to cost them points, as Jason Garrett decided to try a 57-yard field goal that missed badly. It set up Minnesota with a short field, who had no problems marching 53-yards on their first drive of the game to go up 7-0. Situational football has been a problem for the Cowboys this season, and this was yet another example of this team holding itself back..
  • Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph only had 14 receiving yards, but he was a huge difference maker, scoring two touchdowns and picking up a two-point conversion. His success against the Cowboys secondary was unfortunately unsurprising and predictable, as they’ve seemed to have a lot of trouble containing TEs this season.

  • The Dallas offense converted more than half of their third down opportunities (9 of 15, 60%), which normally leads to success. Unfortunately, the Vikings essentially matched them, converting 8 of 14 third downs (57%).
  • Perhaps the most frustrating and inexplicable moment of the game occurred when WR Tavon Austin signaled for a fair catch despite having tons of real estate in front of him at the end of the game. Minnesota was giving the ball back to the Cowboys, punting from their own 10-yard line with 24 seconds left. If there was ever a time for for Austin to have his signature moment with Dallas, this seemed like it. Apparently, the coaches didn’t let him try.

  • The Cowboys are now tied for first place in the NFC East at 5-4. They’ll try to again separate themselves from the Philadelphia against another NFC North opponent next week in the Detroit Lions, who are 3-5-1.