Week 12 CFP Implications: Static at the top, chaos at the bottom

Looking at the national College Football Playoff picture after Week 12, a few things are becoming very clear. Let’s start at the top.

This past week, all 25 teams ranked by the CFP selection committee were in action. With so many games, a trend that has been slowly developing over the year came to full fruition.

We haven’t seen many upsets at the top of the game this year. And while we have seen some matchups of Top 15 teams–mostly involving Auburn or Michigan–we have yet to really see top teams get upset, or matchups between serious contenders. (Yes, we have had a few, most notably Alabama-LSU, but there have been far fewer than in most years.) That will change over the final few weeks of the season, whether due to scheduled matchups or conference championship games.

While there haven’t been many upsets at the top of the rankings. We’ve had plenty at this bottom. This past week, three of the committee’s teams ranked 19-25 lost, plus a pretty weak display from Cincinnati, for the second time in three weeks. Don’t be surprised if the committee drops the Bearcats a little after this performance.

What that leaves us with is essentially a two-tier ranking system. And while we can subdivide each tier further, the breakdown of the tiers will be very important.

The Top 17 teams are basically locked into those spots. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn, Baylor, Wisconsin, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Iowa will be the Top 17 teams from here on out. A shocking upset could knock one of these teams out, sure, and Baylor could fall out on its own by losing two of its final three games (to Texas and then again in the Big 12 Championship Game). Other than that Baylor case, though (and assuming no one does something crazy like lose to Northwestern or an FCS team), these 17 teams will be ranked the rest of the way, no matter what, and will like be the Top 17 the rest of the way.

From 18 on down, though, is anybody’s guess. We could see AAC teams stay in, though they’ve been less impressive as the season has gone on. Also, Cincinnati and Memphis still have to face each other. Appalachian State and Boise State can stay ranked by winning out, but one more loss will end any rankings the rest of the way. Maybe SMU slides back in this week.

After that, though, what’s left? What teams are we looking at to be ranked in the back section of the Top 25? Pitt, Virginia, and/or Virginia Tech could slide in, though Pitt plays Virginia Tech this week, and Virginia faces Virginia Tech next week, so only one of those three, at most, will likely be ranked by season’s end. Are we looking at Iowa State, with as impressive a four-loss resume as we’ve seen in a while?

17 teams have basically locked up their year-end rankings, with two weeks left in the regular season. The other eight spots in the Top 25, though, are entirely up for grabs. Who does this help most? Quite clearly, the Pac 12.

Next… How this helps the Pac 12

Kirk Herbstreit ranks college football’s top-four teams

Where is Georgia football in Kirk Herbstreit’s top-four teams.

Kirk Herbstreit ranked college football’s top-four teams on Sunday morning, following an action-packed Saturday in the top-ten.

His rankings actually stayed the exact same, though, seeing as how none of the drama happened at the top, leaving Georgia football at No. 4 after the Dawgs beat Auburn.

I see nothing wrong with that. There was not really a scenario for Georgia to move up and it definitely did not deserve to move down either. No. 4 is a great spot for UGA.

As for Alabama staying at No. 5, I agree with that one, too. I’d leave the Tide where they are until they prove that the Tua Tagovailoa loss is going to hurt as much as we expect it to.

Here is Herbstreit’s top-four and next two in.

 

Where does Alabama go after injury to Tua Tagovailoa?

Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season ending injury that left everyone with one big question on their mind: Where does Alabama go from here? 

On Saturday, Alabama’s star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season ending injury that left players, coaches, and fans with one big question on their mind: Where does Alabama go from here? 

After Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle sprain a little over three weeks ago during the Tennessee game, the same question was asked, but everyone knew the answer was temporary, since Tagovailoa would be returning to play two weeks later against LSU. But this time, it’s different. Although Tua is expected to make a full recovery, he’s out for the rest of the season, so this time, the answer to the question affects the rest of the season.

Nov 16, 2019; Starkville, MS, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (13) is carted off the field due to an injury during the second quarter of the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium. Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

It affects whether or not the Crimson Tide even has a chance to win the rest of their regular season games for a chance at the CFB Playoff. Whoever takes over as QB1 the rest of the season for Alabama won’t just be playing for one game, they’ll be playing at least two. And if Alabama makes it to the CFB playoff, they’ll be leading the Tide through the playoffs as well. So, with all that being said, let’s dive deep into the question: Who will be the new QB1 for the Crimson Tide, and where does Alabama go from here? 

When Tua Tagovailoa left the Tennessee game, we saw backup quarterback Mac Jones come into the game and throw 6 completions for 72 yards. The following week against Arkansas though, Jones impressed the nation with his ability to lead the team down the field, settle into the running game, throw consistent short passes, and also throw deep bombs when needed. He finished the Arkansas game completing 18-22 passes for 235 yards and 3 TDs. Fans left the game knowing that Mac Jones was more than capable at quarterback when he was needed. But when Tagovailoa went down, everyone knew this time was different, including Mac Jones.

Jones, who will more than likely be the starting quarterback for the rest of the season, has to step up more than ever before. Tua Tagovailoa’s younger brother Taulia will lose his redshirt as he will be backup for Jones, and will probably see action during the next two games. 

But it’s not just who will be the new starting quarterback that’s important to note, it’s how the offense and gameplay will change. When Jones started against Arkansas, it gave the running game a chance to develop. Najee Harris had 13 carried for 86 yards and 2TDs, while Brian Robinson Jr. finished the Arkansas game with also 13 carries for 67 yards. Alabama will have to settle into the running game more over the next two weeks. 

Mac Jones will also have to shift from being just a game manager to a game changer. His role in the Arkansas game was to play safe and smart. But now, he will have to add bold to the list of adjectives. Jones will need to take big shots downfield, considering the receiving group he has around him. If Mac Jones can help the offense settle into the running game while also being smart and taking big shots downfield like he did against Arkansas when he threw a perfect 40 yard bullet to Jerry Jeudy, Alabama has a chance to finish the season the way they started. 

Nov 16, 2019; Starkville, MS, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Mac Jones (10) looks to make a pass against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the third quarter at Davis Wade Stadium.  Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

So, where does Alabama go? 

They go back to the basics. 

The offense will work on settling into the running game, Mac Jones will work on his footwork and consistency, and he works on his ability to hit the open man downfield. 

The defense will work on tackling, and not busting coverage. 

Leaders on both sides of the ball will step up, show up, and show out, and make big plays. 

Alabama may have lost their star quarterback, but they didn’t lose the heart, passion, and goal they’ve all shared together since the season started.

And honestly, Alabama will be playing their hearts out for two reasons. One is of course the chance at another playoff berth. But secondly, and most importantly, they’re playing for Tua. The guy who literally put his body on the line for his team. The guy who has now suffered four injuries while at Alabama. The guy who has led them this far. 

Don’t count Alabama out just yet. 

They aren’t stopping here. 

The starting quarterback may be different for the Crimson Tide on Saturday, but the heart of this team still beats the same, and that’s what this team will rely on to win. 

As Nick Saban once said,

“One thing about championship teams is that they’re resilient. No matter what is thrown at them, no matter how deep the hole, they find a way to bounce back and overcome adversity.”

And that’s exactly what this team is going to do.

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Twitter reacts: Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa ruled out for season

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out for the season after suffering a hip injury versus Mississippi State. Tua has been playing shortly after undergoing surgery for an ankle sprain. Here;s what college football Twitter …

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out for the season after suffering a hip injury versus Mississippi State. Tua has been playing shortly after undergoing surgery for an ankle sprain.

Here;s what college football Twitter had to say after Tua’s unfortunate injury:

We wish Tua a quick recovery and hope he can continue to succeed pursuit of his NFL dreams. Tua made his mark in his first career big-time game against Georgia in the National Championship two seasons ago. He’s been outstanding ever since then and has battle through his fair share of injuries and adversity.

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Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa out for season with hip injury

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will miss the rest of the 2019 season with a hip injury

The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost their quarterback for the rest of the 2019 season.

Tua Tagovailoa will indeed miss the remainder of the year after suffering a scary hip injury in Saturday’s win over Mississippi State, per The Athletic’s Aaron Suttles:

Alabama has now confirmed the report with an official statement (via ESPN’s Marty Smith):

Tagovailoa was recently recovered from ankle surgery when he sustained the injury. Many questioned why he was still in the game late in the second quarter with the Crimson Tide up 35-7 over the Bulldogs.

There are still fears that this injury could have an impact on Tagovailoa’s career and his ability to play in the NFL.

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Twitter reacts to season ending injury to Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa

The Alabama Crimson Tide walked away from Starkville with a 38-7 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday. Unfortunately, that victory was overshadowed by the injury to star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With only minutes to go in the first …

The Alabama Crimson Tide walked away from Starkville with a 38-7 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday. Unfortunately, that victory was overshadowed by the injury to star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

With only minutes to go in the first half, Tagovailoa was brought to the ground by two State defenders while throwing the ball away. The collision caused what is being reported as a hip injury to the Honolulu (Haw.) native.

According to Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Reese’s Senior Bowl down in Mobile (Ala.), Tagovailoa’s injury was similar to the one that ended former Auburn running back Bo Jackson’s career in the NFL:

As a result of the news to one of college football’s biggest stars, several people, including those who love and hate Alabama, took to Twitter to share their heartbreak and concern.

And here is one more tear-jerker for Alabama fans, who will forever be recognized for this game-winning touchdown pass against the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2018 National Championship Game.

At the end of the day, this is something that no one ever wants to see. The hope is that Tagovailoa is able to make a full recovery and get back to playing the game he loves.

Either way, keep him and his family in your thoughts!

UPDATE: Tua Tagovailoa will miss the remainder of the 2019 season, according to Aaron Suttles with The Athletic.

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Alabama-Mississippi State: Post-game recap

The Alabama Crimson Tide defeated SEC West rival, Mississippi State with a final score of 38 – 7 to advance their record to 9-1 on the season. With Tua Tagovailoa being carted off the field and taken away in an ambulance, Mac Jones stepped in and …

The Alabama Crimson Tide defeated SEC West rival, Mississippi State with a final score of 38 – 7 to advance their record to 9-1 on the season.

With Tua Tagovailoa being carted off the field and taken away in an ambulance, Mac Jones stepped in and kept the offense alive, but didn’t live up to the hype left behind by Tagovailoa.

Jones completed 7 of 11 pass attempts for 94 yards and no touchdowns.

Overall, the offense didn’t add any notable stats in the second half without Tagovailoa.

The only points scored in the half was a 22-yard field goal from Joseph Bulovas.

The defense stayed strong throughout the entire game, only allowing a lone touchdown early in the first quarter.

Next week the Crimson Tide will welcome Western Carolina into Bryant Denny Stadium, a game that will mean more now that Nick Saban will have to readjust on both sides of the ball to account for injuries.

 

What we know about Tua Tagovailoa’s injury

Find out the latest details on the scary injury suffered by Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

One of college football’s best players, and one of the top prospects in the 2020 NFL draft class, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may have played his final down for the Crimson Tide.

Despite being ahead 35-7 late in the first half against Mississippi State on Saturday, Tagovailoa was still in the game for Alabama, and suffered a scary injury as two defenders landed on him after he tried to scramble out of the pocket and make a throw.

Bama’s star quarterback had to be carted off the field, and was reportedly screaming in pain:

Tide head coach Nick Saban said at halftime that Tagovailoa was supposed to come out after that series:

Tagovailoa was air-lifted to the hospital, per Cecil Hurt of the Tuscaloosa News:

Saban had little information to provide regarding Tagovailoa’s situation at his postgame press conference:

According to Aaron Suttles of The Athletic, Tagovailoa is indeed out for the season:

While many expected the injury to be an aggravation of the ankle injury Tagovailoa had surgery to repair last month, this injury ended up being a new injury to his hip.

The severity of this injury obviously has seismic implications for all involved, from Alabama’s hopes of making another playoff run, from Tagovailoa’s draft stock. Obviously, his long-term health is the most important thing right now, and hopefully he’s able to make a full recovery.

Currently jockeying with LSU quarterback Joe Burrow for the title of next year’s top quarterback prospect, Tagovailoa could face serious concerns about his injury history and durability when NFL teams are evaluating him this offseason.

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Alabama-Mississippi State: Halftime report

The Alabama Crimson Tide leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs 35 – 7 at the half in a game that has displayed Alabama’s dominance on both sides of the ball. Halftime. #BamaFactor #RollTide pic.twitter.com/J85U5ZiNb9 – Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) …

The Alabama Crimson Tide leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs 35 – 7 at the half in a game that has displayed Alabama’s dominance on both sides of the ball.

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who was carted off of the field with an apparent hip injury late in the second quarter, has completed 14 passes off of 18 attempts for 256 yards and two touchdowns.

Mac Jones has stepped up in place of Tagovailoa and will fill his role for the time being if he is able to returns later in this game.

Najee Harris has been the star of the Alabama offense in the first half as he has scored four total touchdowns, three rushing and one receiving.

Wide receiver Jerry jeudy has an impressive 106 yards in the first half off of six receptions.

The defense has also been a major factor for Alabama in this game as Shane Lee came up with an early interception to help the Tide gain a two possession lead.

They have held Mississippi State’s quarterback, Tommy Stevens, to only 28 yards and their star running back, Kylin Hill to only 24 yards on the ground.

Alabama will kickoff to start the second half in Starkville.

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UPDATE: Tua Tagovailoa leaves game after injury vs. Mississippi State

Alabama starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was carted off the field late in the second quarter after getting tackled from behind by two Mississippi State Bulldog defenders while trying to scramble. 

Alabama starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was carted off the field late in the second quarter after getting tackled from behind by two Mississippi State defenders while trying to scramble.

Nick Saban reported to ESPN’s Molly McGrath at halftime that Tua Tagovailoa hurt his hip. Also, the junior quarterback was holding a towel against his bloodied face, which we do not know the extent at this time.

We will keep you updated as soon we we get more official information!

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

 

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE: According to Lyle Cain, the team surgeon, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa dislocated his hip Saturday and will miss the remainder of the season.

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