NFL Week 11 picks against the spread

Every Week 11 picked and predicted against the spread.

Getting Thursday night picks right apparently mean having terrible afternoons. That’s two weeks in a row where the afternoon games sunk a great week. Back to the .500 mark though.

To the picks!

Point spreads were provided by Bet MGM.

Week 8 record: 7-6

Season record: 73-73

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh

These teams are having this weird Freaky Friday season where the Steelers have the record the Browns should have, and the Browns have the record the Steelers should have. There’s an off chance this is Freddie Kitchens’ final game as the Browns’ head coach.

Pick: Browns (-2.5)

New Orleans (-5.5) vs. TAMPA BAY

The Saints lost to the Falcons last week, which either means they’re not very good, or they’re due to bounce back in a big way in Tampa.

Pick: Saints (-5.5)

CAROLINA (-5.5) vs. Atlanta

PREDICTION: Christian McCaffrey goes off and we really ramp up the “McCaffrey for MVP” conversation where everyone jumps back on the ‘running backs are valuable again’ train way too fast.

Pick: Panthers (-5.5)

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville

This game is the Nick Foles of NFL games.

Pick: Jags (+3.5)

MINNESOTA (-10.5) vs. Denver

There’s a really strong chance John Elway vastly overpays Kirk Cousins sometime in the very near future.

Pick: Vikings (-10.5)

WASHINGTON (-1.5) vs. New York Jets

Do you know who’s going to be the loser in this game? Everyone who watches it.

Pick: Jets (+1.5)

Buffalo (-5.5) vs. MIAMI

The combined winning percentage of teams the Bills have beaten is .214. That is the lowest mark in the AFC by a pretty substantial margin.

Pick: Dolphins (+5.5)

BALTIMORE (-4.5) vs. Houston

There’s not a more fun matchup all year than Lamar Jackson vs. Deshaun Watson. Two young, exciting quarterbacks playing at MVP-caliber levels. Sign me up.

Pick: Ravens (-4.5)

SAN FRANCISCO (-11.5) vs. Arizona

11.5 points is a lot for a team as beat up as the 49ers are, especially since they only beat the Cardinals by three two weeks ago.

Pick: Cardinals (+11.5)

New England (-3.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA

If the Eagles are going to make a Super Bowl run, it’ll have to start Sunday against the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots (-3.5)

OAKLAND (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati

THE RAIDERS ARE FAVORED BY 10.5 POINTS!

Pick: Raiders (-10.5)

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5) vs. Chicago

Mitchell Trubisky has to face a defense with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Hopefully he can turn the TVs off at halftime.

Pick: Rams (-6.5)

KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

There is not a more confusing team in the league than the Chargers, who are either terrible or a Super Bowl contender.

Pick: Chiefs (-4.5)

 

49ers take small dip in power rankings after stumble vs. Seahawks

The 49ers’ fall from the top of the NFL Wire power rankings wasn’t bad after they suffered their first loss of the year.

The 49ers were a 47-yard field goal away from beating the Seahawks on Monday night and maintaining an undefeated record. Instead, Chase McLaughlin’s kick hooked wide left (and then some), and the 49ers eventually lost to the Seahawks. The loss was enough to drop San Francisco one spot to No. 2 in the NFL Wire power rankings.

It’s not a surprise the 49ers finally dropped out of the top spot in Doug Farrar’s rankings. He’s had them there since they downed the Rams 20-7 in Week 6. Baltimore also had a dominant win over the Patriots, followed by a dominant win over the Bengals. There’s not a team playing better football than the Ravens going into Week 11.

The key for San Francisco is not letting losses pile up. Monday night was a heartbreaker, but a game they could have (should have?) won even without their two best pass catchers, George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders.

Farrar explained why the loss isn’t as bad as it seemed:

San Francisco’s drop from the undefeated isn’t that big a deal in the grand scheme of things — they lost to a very good team playing at its best (especially on defense) and did so seriously shorthanded. Kyle Shanahan’s team will try to get things back together against the Cardinals next week.

This is where things get more tough for the 49ers though. They face Arizona in Week 11, Green Bay (No. 5 in the rankings) in Week 12, and then Baltimore (No. 1) and New Orleans (No. 4) in back-to-back road games. Then they’re home for the Rams and Falcons before wrapping up the season in Seattle (No. 6).

With injuries piling up and the schedule getting tougher, it’s going to be an uphill climb for the 49ers to keep themselves ranked among the team’s elite.  However, they’ll have ample opportunities to prove themselves worthy, and if things go right the rest of the way, they’ll have a real claim to be the NFL’s best team at the end of the 2019 season.

Report: 49ers to send representative to Colin Kaepernick workout

11 teams have committed to being at the Colin Kaepernick workout. The 49ers aren’t among them, but they will be soon per Matt Maiocco.

Former 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will work out for NFL teams Thursday in Atlanta. All 32 clubs were invited to attend the session, which was orchestrated by the league. Kaepernick had two hours to accept the non-negotiable terms of the workout.

The NFL on Thursday released a statement that named 11 teams that are committed to attend. The 49ers were not among the 11 listed, but Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports reported San Francisco will have a representative on hand to see the workout in person. A video of the workout and interview will be sent to all 32 teams.

Kaepernick hasn’t played in the NFL since he and the 49ers parted ways prior to the 2017 season. The second-round pick in 2011 played in 69 games and started 58 for San Francisco, including two NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl. He completed 59.8 percent of his throws for 12,271 yards, 72 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Kaepernick also added 2,300 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground, and averaged 6.1 yards per carry.

It’s hard to imagine San Francisco re-signing their former signal caller at this point. They already have three quarterbacks on the roster, and if they thought Kaepernick was a better option than either CJ Beathard or Nick Mullens to back up Jimmy Garoppolo, they likely would have aimed to acquire him already.

However, due diligence is important, especially with quarterback evaluations, so it makes sense the 49ers would want someone in attendance to ensure there’s not something they’ve missed in their evaluation.

 

 

49ers have 14 players either out or limited in practice

The 49ers had 14 players out or limited in practice Thursday.

The 49ers list of injured players is long. It may be so long that they can’t suit up 46 players Sunday against the Cardinals.

14 players were either out of practice or limited Thursday, including tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. They were both out of practice for the second consecutive day.

The NFL season becomes a war of attrition through the final half of the year, and the 49ers are in a fierce battle now. Kittle hasn’t been officially ruled out, but Staley will miss a couple weeks, and DJ Jones is out at least for the Cardinals game. Robbie Gould hasn’t practiced since straining his quad early last week, and Matt Breida re-aggravated an ankle injury Monday night against Seattle.

Here’s Thursday’s practice report released by the team:

Did not participate

RB Matt Breida (ankle)
RB Tevin Coleman (not injury related)
K Robbie Gould (quad)
DT D.J. Jones (groin)
TE George Kittle (knee, ankle)
WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs)
OT Joe Staley (finger)

Limited participation

LB Azeez Al-Shaair (concussion)
TE Garrett Celek (back)
DE Dee Ford (quad)
RB Raheem Mostert (knee)
WR Dante Pettis (back)
TE Levine Toilolo (groin)
CB Ahkello Witherspoon (foot, quad)

49ers heavy favorites over Cardinals despite injuries, last meeting

Injuries didn’t stop the 49ers from giving double-digit points against the Cardinals on Sunday.

The 49ers’ first matchup with the Arizona Cardinals this season was a struggle. San Francisco prevailed 28-25 in the desert, and were holding on for dear life when the clock finally ran out.

Since that game two weeks ago, the 49ers have sustained key injuries, and their task at home Sunday against the Cardinals seems much more daunting than it did prior to their first meeting. None of that played a big role in the betting line though, which started at 13.5, but is down to 11.5 according to BetMGM.

That 11.5 number is still massive, but the quick two-point dip indicates there’s a lot of money coming in on the Cardinals.

It looks like the 49ers won’t have George Kittle again, and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is dealing with a rib injury. Left tackle Joe Staley will miss the game, and running back Matt Breida is also expected to sit out.

Given how well the Cardinals played the last time these teams matched up, it’s hard to rule them out of this game early. 11.5 points feels like way too many. San Francisco is undoubtedly the better team, but the slew of injuries to starters handicaps them some against a division rival.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see those 11.5 points come down even further Friday once injuries are officially announced.

[Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.]

49ers sign familiar DE, place Ronald Blair on IR

The 49ers lost Ronald Blair for the season, so they turned to a familiar face at defensive end.

The 49ers were bit hard by the injury bug Monday night, but the biggest blow came when defensive end Ronald Blair suffered a torn ACL while taking down Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson.

Blair on Wednesday was officially placed on injured reserve, and his roster spot was filled with defensive end Damontre Moore.

Moore might sound familiar because of his terrific preseason showing with the 49ers. He had 2.0 sacks in the exhibition slate, but created a ton of pressure in a relatively large sample size.

His big preseason wasn’t enough to land a roster spot though on a deep 49ers defensive line. Losing Blair put the 49ers in a spot where they couldn’t simply add another DL. They had to match Blair’s skill set, and Moore is probably the closest they were going to find on the free agent wire.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters the team wanted Moore on the roster, but couldn’t make it work at a deep defensive end spot. He also said they were fortunate Moore was available after his strong preseason.

“Yeah, definitely with how well of a preseason he had,” Shanahan said when asked if he was surprised Moore was available. “But it’s tough in this league, especially being a veteran when you don’t have practice squad eligibility. I guess it didn’t work out for him, but with the tape he put on, yeah, we were surprised and felt lucky he was still out there.”

Moore has played in 54 games across six NFL seasons. He also spent time in the Alliance of American Football and played well in the now-defunct league. The 27-year-old has 10-career sacks, although 9.5 of them came in the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

Replacing Blair won’t be easy. He’s a very smart, productive player in the 49ers defensive line rotation. Blair had 3.0 sacks and seven tackles for loss before sustaining his season-ending knee injury.

Moore will get a chance to debut for the 49ers on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium.

Joe Staley out again after finger surgery

A dislocated, fractured finger required surgery that’ll push Joe Staley out of another couple of games.

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The 49ers will once again face life without their starting left tackle. Joe Staley, Monday in his first game back from a broken fibula, dislocated and fractured a finger. That injury required surgery that will keep him out a couple weeks according to head coach Kyle Shanahan.

Justin Skule, who stepped in when Staley broke his fibula in Week 2 against the Bengals, is his likely replacement.

Staley didn’t have his best performance in the team’s 27-24 overtime loss to the Seahawks on Monday night. He looked like a 12-year veteran who hadn’t played a game in two months. Now he’s due to miss more time, but he should be back in time to knock the rust off and get back to playing at a high level in time for a postseason push.

The good news is the team’s play at left tackle didn’t fall off much with the sixth-round rookie Skule in for the starter. He acquitted himself well in six starts, and earned the trust of his head coach.

“I thought he did a very good job,” Shanahan said. “He came in there and stepped it up right away. Did a good job in his first game and I thought he got better each week. We were happy with how he played and I’m glad we had a couple good backups through that.”

They’ll need Skule to play at a high level again with the Cardinals and their very good edge rush coming to Levi’s Stadium on Sunday. Then it’s the Packers in Santa Clara before back-to-back road games in Baltimore and New Orleans, and iit sounds like the 49ers will get Staley back in time for at least one of those games on that road trip.

Nobody knows what’s going on with George Kittle

It sounds like the 49ers will be without tight end George Kittle for another week.

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George Kittle’s availability for the 49ers’ Week 11 showdown with the Cardinals is still up in the air. Maybe.

The star tight end didn’t practice Wednesday after not practicing at all in Week 10 and missing the team’s Monday night loss to the Seahawks. Kittle is dealing with knee and ankle injuries that resulted from a collision on the 49ers’ first offensive snap in Arizona.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan on Tuesday told 49ers reporters during a conference that Kittle was still day-to-day with an uncertain status for Sunday.

“Kittle (is) still in the same boat,” Shanahan said. “Hopeful for (him) this week, but still pretty similar to last week.”

Kittle didn’t practice leading up to the Seahawks game and was officially listed as ‘doubtful’ on the injury report. There was some optimism during the week that he’d be able to play though and miss only one game.

Things got confusing after Wednesday’s practice when Shanahan went on a conference call with Cardinals reporters.

The 49ers head coach told that group of reporters “we won’t have Kittle.” He didn’t mention any change in Kittle’s status in a press conference with 49ers reporters a short time before that.

It appears that Shanahan jumped the gun on divulging the truth about Kittle’s status for Week 11. It didn’t stop with his conference call though. The 49ers clarified what the coach meant when he said the team would be without its top tight end for the second consecutive week.

So he is not, NOT playing. But he’s also unlikely to play.

It was a roller coaster, but it appears that we’ve landed at the start. The 49ers are worried Kittle won’t play, and are preparing again to be without him, but his history of playing through pain and overcoming injuries is keeping them from publicly ruling him out. Shanahan accidentally did the latter prior to the clarification from the club.

While Kittle isn’t officially out against Arizona, it sounds like a repeat of last week where he neither practices nor plays is on the horizon. We’ll know more Friday when the official injury report comes out.

 

6 silver linings from the 49ers’ heartbreaking loss to Seahawks

The 49ers lost on Monday night, but it’s not all bad in Santa Clara.

The 49ers’ first loss of the season couldn’t have gone much worse.  They had opportunities to win, and pushed the Seahawks to the final seconds of overtime, but they couldn’t secure a victory and fell to 8-1 on the season.

It’s hard to glean a lot of good from a contest as gut-wrenching as Monday night, but there are a few positives the 49ers can focus on as moving forward.

Dre Greenlaw was good

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander could’ve been a crucial blow for San Francisco’s defense, especially since the rookie Greenlaw was his replacement. The fifth-round selection out of Arkansas acquitted himself well with eight tackles, a pass breakup and an interception that nearly won the game for the 49ers. He picked off Russell Wilson in the red zone in overtime, and nearly took it back for a touchdown. Greenlaw should be a perfectly suitable replacement for Alexander in the heart of 49ers’ defense.

Rookie WR Jalen Hurd not ready to return to practice yet

The 49ers receiving corps will need to wait longer if rookie WR Jalen Hurd is the answer to their woes.

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Monday night exposed some of the flaws in the 49ers’ receiving corps. They need help at that spot, but reinforcements may have to wait. Third-year slot receiver Trent Taylor is on Injured Reserve with a foot injury, but setbacks have pushed him out of real contention to return in 2019. Rookie wide receiver Jalen Hurd, who’s on IR with a back injury, is eligible to return leading up to Week 11, but head coach Kyle Shanahan said that’s not likely to happen.

Shanahan on Tuesday told reporters attending a conference call that Hurd was checked out last week and didn’t meet enough requirements to get back on the field per Chris Biderman of the Sacramento Bee. The door for Hurd to play in his first NFL season is still ajar though.

That provides a glimmer of hope that the receiving corps could get some much-needed help from the rookie with a diverse skill set.

Hurd is still learning the position after transitioning from running back in his final two years of college, but he was very effective in limited preseason action with a pair of touchdown receptions in his debut. He hurt his back in the lead up to Week 2 of the preseason, then left the second game after just 10 snaps. He’s been out since.

The 49ers on Monday saw nine dropped passes by their receivers, including one that led to an interception, and multiple others that could’ve been picked off after getting tipped in the air by receivers. It was an abysmal showing from a group that had an opportunity step up with George Kittle ruled out before the game, and veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders exiting in the second quarter.

Hurd is a big-bodied slot option who gives San Francisco a physicality they don’t presently have at the position. He’d be a big help for a receiving corps that needs it, but they’ll have to wait at least another week to get the rookie in uniform at practice.