2022 U.S. Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2022 U.S. Open, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The third major of the year also happens to be the toughest test in golf.  Of course, I’m talking about the 2022 U.S. Open Championship, which will be held in New England at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., one of the oldest clubs in the country.

Last week’s RBC Canadian Open was a nice warm-up for America’s 122nd championship, but no course this year can truly match the grit and resilience that will be required of those teeing it up this week. Below, we look at the 2022 U.S. Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

As it always does, the U.S. Open will feature almost all of the top players in the world. Defending champion Jon Rahm is among the favorites, as is the reigning PGA champ Justin Thomas and Masters champ and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Players who joined the LIV Golf tour are also eligible to play at The Country Club, so Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson will be teeing it up, too. Tiger Woods is the most notable player not in the field, opting to skip the U.S. Open to get ready for The Open in July.

The Country Club has hosted the U.S. Open 3 times before, most recently in 1988. It hosted the tournament in 1913, just the 19th playing of the U.S. Open. It’s a par 70 and will play 7,264 yards this week, so it’s not the lengthy brute that Torrey Pines was last year (7,600-plus yards, par 72). The rough will be treacherous, the greens are tiny and undulating, and the fairways aren’t very wide. In other words, it’s going to be a grind for these players to simply keep it in the short grass and hit greens.

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U.S. Open – Expert picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:54 p.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+1000)

Love the player, but don’t love the line. McIlroy is the outright favorite at +1000, which doesn’t offer as much reward as I would like, largely because he just won the RBC Canadian Open over Justin Thomas, Tony Finau and a host of other quality contenders.  But he’s playing too well right now to ignore.

He has 4 top-10s finishes including a win, in his last 5 starts, plus a T-18. And what he showed last week with his wedges gives me a lot of confidence in his game at The Country Club. If he can dial in his wedges and irons to go with the weapon that is his driver, he’s going to be tough to beat.

Jordan Spieth (+2000)

Spieth is in the midst of a great season. In his last 5 starts, he has a win and 2 other top-10s, plus a T-18 at the Memorial Tournament. He ranks 10th on tour this season in Strokes Gained: Tee to green and he’s tied for 20th in SG: Around the green. That’s a fantastic combination on a course that requires pure ball-striking and magic around the greens.

His line of +2000 is representative of his chances to win this week, so I like the value.

Shane Lowry (+3000)

Lowry is somewhat of a sleeper among the favorites, even at +3000. He has the all-around game to contend this week, from his length off the tee to his iron play, which ranks 9th in SG: Approach the green. He’s fresh off a T-10 at the RBC Canadian Open, finishing with a final-round 66 Sunday to surge up the leaderboard.

I love his chances in Brookline, even if his recent track record in the U.S. Open isn’t great.

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U.S. Open picks – Contenders

Max Homa (+4000)

Homa didn’t play in Canada last week, but he tied for 5th in his last start at the Memorial. He’s playing the best golf of his career right now and he showed at the PGA Championship that he’s ready to contend in majors, tying  for 13th at Southern Hills.

After never making the cut at the U.S. Open, he’s got a good chance to break through and be around on Sunday this week.

Justin Rose (+6000)

Rose had a legitimate shot to post just the second 58 in PGA Tour history at the RBC Canadian Open, but he bogeyed 2 of his last 3 holes to shoot 60 – still an incredible round. It seemed like every approach into the green was bound to finish inside 5 feet from the hole. He’s striking the ball beautifully heading into the U.S. Open.

The 2013 U.S. Open winner has what it takes to grind it out in tough conditions, and he’s been remarkably accurate as of late.

Patrick Reed (+8000)

The reception from fans may not be the greatest for Reed after he joined the LIV Golf tour, but he’s a player who welcomes scrutiny. Reed seems to have turned a corner with a T-7 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and on a course where the short game will be critical around these greens, Reed fits well at The Country Club.

U.S. Open picks – Long shots

Russell Henley (+10000)

This isn’t the week to go crazy with long shots. The best players typically separate themselves at the U.S. Open, with long shots rarely making much noise. Henley is the flyer I like this week, though, ranking 14th in SG: Tee to green and 24th around the green. That’s a recipe for success, and he’s fared well in this championship before with 3 top-30s, including T-13 last year.

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