2022 fantasy football – Page 21

Better than average: Wide Receivers

Small group of wideouts that were tops against secondaries and most are changing for 2022

Every NFL team will use at least two, if not three, wide receivers in each game and as such, logging a top-8 performance against a secondary is already a feat since that defense likely faced about 50 starting wideouts in a season. This is a very impressive feat and turning in the top performance is truly elite.

The top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each wide receivers were recorded for how often their fantasy points were in the top-8, the top-4 and highest allowed versus that specific defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a “better than average” (BTA) score since they are better than the average wideout that faced a defense. It also weights the performances since a No. 1 also counts as a top-4 and a top-8.

Better than average: QB | RB | TE

Bottom line: This is about how well a receiver did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. This is a true measurement of how effective wideouts are when the schedule influences are removed.

TM	NAME	BTA score	Top 1	Top 3	Top 8
LAR	Cooper Kupp	25	4	9	12
KC	Tyreek Hill	18	4	6	8
GB	Davante Adams	17	3	6	8
SF	Deebo Samuel	14	2	3	9
TB	Chris Godwin	13	1	5	7
MIN	Justin Jefferson	11	1	2	8
TB	Mike Evans	11	1	4	6
MIA	Jaylen Waddle	10	0	4	6
SEA	Tyler Lockett	10	2	3	5
BUF	Stefon Diggs	9	1	2	6
CIN	Ja’Marr Chase	9	1	3	5
DAL	CeeDee Lamb	9	1	2	6
LAC	Mike Williams	9	0	3	6
LVR	Hunter Renfrow	8	0	1	7
PIT	Diontae Johnson	8	0	2	6
WAS	Terry McLaurin	8	1	2	5
DET	Amon-Ra St. Brown	7	0	2	5
MIN	Adam Thielen	7	1	2	4
TB	Antonio Brown	7	1	2	4
TEN	A.J. Brown	7	1	2	4
BAL	Marquise Brown	6	0	1	5
CAR	D.J. Moore	6	1	1	4
CIN	Tee Higgins	6	1	2	3
DAL	Amari Cooper	6	1	2	3
HOU	Brandin Cooks	6	1	1	4
ATL	Russell Gage Jr.	5	0	1	4
DEN	Courtland Sutton	5	0	2	3
IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	5	0	1	4
LAC	Keenan Allen	5	0	1	4
PHI	DeVonta Smith	5	0	1	4
SEA	DK Metcalf	5	0	1	4

The interesting part of this is that Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams were two of the top-3 in this metric and yet left for a team with a downgrade at quarterback. Jaylen Waddle proved to be a force as a rookie, but now he has Hill cutting into expectations.

Tyler Lockett also fared well here but also experiences a downgrade at quarterback. Given the sheer volume of wideouts that face NFL defenses, the top wideouts here are truly elite. But many of these receivers have different situations this year with other receivers added to their team (Waddle, Hunter Renfrow, Amon-Ra St. Brown) and several have moved to new teams (Hill, Adams, A.J. Brown, Marquise Brown, Amari Cooper).

Only Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel provided most of their games as top-8 performances versus defenses.

TM	Wide Receivers	Top 1
LAR	Cooper Kupp	4
KC	Tyreek Hill	4
GB	Davante Adams	3
SF	Deebo Samuel	2
SEA	Tyler Lockett	2

Of the five wideouts that managed more than one top performance allowed by an NFL defense, only Kupp still has the same situation. Hill and Adams moved on, and Lockett and Samuel will have new quarterbacks this year.

Better than average: Running Backs

Which running backs fared the best against each NFL defense?

In today’s NFL, split backfields mean there’s precious few running backs who handle a high volume of touches. But there’s also no position that is as sensitive to schedule strength since they handle the most touches in an offense, and opponents typically focus on stopping the run and forcing their opponents to pass. So lodging the most fantasy points allowed by a defense is an impressive feat, and much more so when facing tougher defenses.

The top-8 fantasy performances allowed by each defense were arrayed and each running back was recorded for how often their fantasy points were in the top-8, the top-4 and highest allowed versus that specific defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a “better than average” (BTA) score since they are better than the “average” running back that faced a defense. It also weights the performances since a No. 1 placement also counts as a top-4 and a top-8. The addition of the extra game for every team now means that all eight games are all truly over the average.

Better than average: QB | WR | TE

Bottom line: This is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. This is a true measurement of how effective running backs were with the schedule influences removed.

TM	Running Backs	BTA score	Top 1	Top 3	Top 8
LAC	Austin Ekeler	24	4	8	12
IND	Jonathan Taylor	22	3	7	12
PIT	Najee Harris	14	0	5	9
ARI	James Conner	13	2	4	7
TB	Leonard Fournette	13	2	4	7
MIN	Dalvin Cook	12	1	3	8
CIN	Joe Mixon	11	0	4	7
NO	Alvin Kamara	11	0	3	8
TEN	Derrick Henry	11	2	4	5
CLE	Nick Chubb	10	1	4	5
GB	Aaron Jones	10	1	3	6
JAC	James Robinson	10	1	3	6
ATL	Cordarrelle Patterson	9	1	3	5
DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	9	1	3	5
DET	D’Andre Swift	9	0	3	6
WAS	Antonio Gibson	9	0	3	6
CAR	Christian McCaffrey	8	0	4	4
NE	Damien Harris	8	0	1	7
CHI	David Montgomery	7	1	1	5
LVR	Josh Jacobs	7	0	1	6
SF	Elijah Mitchell	7	1	1	5
BUF	Devin Singletary	6	1	1	4
CLE	D’Ernest Johnson	6	1	2	3
CLE	Kareem Hunt	6	1	2	3
LAR	Darrell Henderson	6	0	1	5
MIA	Myles Gaskin	6	1	1	4
SEA	Rashaad Penny	6	0	2	4
ARI	Chase Edmonds	5	0	1	4
DEN	Javonte Williams	5	1	1	3
DEN	Melvin Gordon III	5	0	0	5
KC	Darrel Williams	5	0	1	4
MIN	Alexander Mattison	5	0	1	4
NYG	Saquon Barkley	5	1	2	2

Austin Ekeler and Jonathan Taylor were both significantly better than the other 2021 running backs though Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey were injured for much of the season. James Conner came through with almost half of his games in the top-8 and a healthy one-in-four in the top-4 allowed by their opponents. Leonard Fournette ended with the exact same numbers.

The bigger surprises were Saquon Barkley, who ranked lowest, and the duo of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, who effectively cancelled each other out in terms of having big games against their opponents. And Gordon is back again.

Elijah Mitchell always seemed so productive when healthy, but fell in the metric even below expectations even considering missing games. Ezekiel Elliott muddled through a PCL injury last year and had one of his least effective seasons. Antonio Gibson may lost some touches this year and that would drop him even further behind.

James Robinson ended well but tore his Achilles plus deals with Travis Etienne showing up, but it was encouraging that he had the workload to accomplish a very respectable score in this metric.

TM	Running Backs	Top 1
LAC	Austin Ekeler	4
IND	Jonathan Taylor	3
ARI	James Conner	2
TB	Leonard Fournette	2
TEN	Derrick Henry	2

Ekeler and Taylor again shined as the only running backs that logged more than two games with the most fantasy points allowed by that defense. Conner already managed two “best games” versus the defenses that he faced and doesn’t have Chase Edmonds there this year.

Better than average: Quarterbacks

Which QBs were the best against a particular defense?

The best measurement of a quarterback is how they fared against a defense relative to all other quarterbacks that also faced that defense. That removes the impact of schedule strength, because the highest game allowed by a great defense may seem average were it against a weak secondary.

The top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each quarterback was recorded for how often their fantasy points were in the top-8, the top-4 and highest allowed versus that specific defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a “better than average” (BTA) score since they are better than the average quarterback that faced a defense. It also weights the performances since a first place counts as a top-4 and a top-8.

Bottom line: This is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. This is a true measurement of how effective quarterbacks were with the schedule influences removed.

TM	Quarterbacks	BTA score	Top 1	Top 3	Top 8
TB	Tom Brady	27	6	9	12
BUF	Josh Allen	25	3	7	15
KC	Patrick Mahomes	23	4	7	12
LAC	Justin Herbert	22	2	7	13
LAR	Matthew Stafford	20	2	5	13
DAL	Dak Prescott	18	1	6	11
GB	Aaron Rodgers	17	1	5	11
ARI	Kyler Murray	16	2	5	9
MIN	Kirk Cousins	16	2	4	10
BAL	Lamar Jackson	14	1	4	9
CIN	Joe Burrow	14	1	4	9
PHI	Jalen Hurts	12	0	2	10
SEA	Russell Wilson	10	2	3	5
TEN	Ryan Tannehill	10	1	1	8
IND	Carson Wentz	9	0	1	8
LVR	Derek Carr	9	0	3	6
SF	Jimmy Garoppolo	8	0	2	6
DET	Jared Goff	7	1	1	5
HOU	Davis Mills	7	0	2	5
MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	7	0	2	5
NE	Mac Jones	7	0	0	7
ATL	Matt Ryan	6	0	0	6
CAR	Sam Darnold	6	1	2	3
DEN	Teddy Bridgewater	6	0	1	5
WAS	Taylor Heinicke	6	0	1	5
CHI	Justin Fields	5	0	1	4
JAC	Trevor Lawrence	5	0	1	4
NO	Taysom Hill	5	0	2	3
PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	5	0	1	4

The top quarterbacks are to be expected, and Tom Brady’s decision to return last year proved to be one of his best seasons. Justin Herbert was second only to Josh Allen in the number of top-8 games that shows how consistently good he was.

Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow fell a bit in this measurement. Jalen Hurts never turned in the most fantasy points allowed by a defense and only twice had a top-4 performance while playing one of the lighter schedules in 2021.

Davis Mills only started ten games as a rookie but half were in the top-8 allowed by the defense and twice he managed a top-4, all while playing in a mostly mediocre offense. That’s promising for this year.

This is the list of quarterbacks that posted the best fantasy game allowed by an opposing defense all year for 2021.

TM	Quarterbacks	Top 1
TB	Tom Brady	6
KC	Patrick Mahomes	4
BUF	Josh Allen	3
LAC	Justin Herbert	2
LAR	Matthew Stafford	2
ARI	Kyler Murray	2
MIN	Kirk Cousins	2
SEA	Russell Wilson	2

No surprises other than there were only three quarterbacks that produced the most fantasy points allowed by a defense more than twice. Brady, Mahomes, and Allen all proved to be true difference-makers.

Fantasy football PPR live draft review

A second PPR draft in mid-May showed a few different patterns emerge.

Much like with our May edition of the Mock Draft Series, out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t write up our final four), here are a few observations from an 18-round, 12-team, PPR draft.

This group was hyper-aggressive with selecting wide receivers early in the first round, especially atop the draft. Four of the first seven selections were wideouts, including Cooper Kupp going No. 3 overall. Detroit running back D’Andre Swift going 12th was the only thing close to a surprise in the opening round. Three tight ends and six receivers went in the second round. The rest were running backs.
The first QB came off the board was Josh Allen was taken with the fifth selection of Round 3, which is the earliest any quarterback has gone in the first three drafts of this series. Justin Herbert went with the final pick in Round 6, followed two spots later by Patrick Mahomes. Only Lamar Jackson (Pick 8:09) would go over the next 24 choices.
In the first 100 picks, 5 QBs, 42 RBs, 44 WRs and 9 TEs were taken. During the PPR draft a week prior, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 8 RBs, 4 WRs
2nd: 3 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 TEs
3rd: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
4th: 6 RBs, 6 WRs
5th: 3 RBs, 8 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
7th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 6 WRs
8th: 1 QB, 6 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE
9th: 5 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 3 TEs
10th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE

My team

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

1:02) RB Austin Ekeler, Las Angeles Chargers: It came down to Derrick Henry being dominant one more time, Cooper Kupp as the safest pick here, or Ekeler remaining healthy. I was most concerned about not having a strong enough RB1 if I chose the wideout.

2:11) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Knowing the drafter at the turn had an elite RB and presuming WR-WR was in play, I went with Evans before another back. It played out as expected. Evans and Keenan Allen were the best remaining WR1s.

3:02) RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: I hoped Chubb would survive the turn, and my Round 2 decision paid off. Injuries and time-sharing concerns are real, but Chubb is a TD machine and gives me a legit RB1 as my second back.

4:11) WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: The debate was McLaurin and Courtland Sutton, who went with the very next pick. McLaurin has proven to be mostly QB-proof and makes for a quality WR2, even with Carson Wentz under center.

5:02) RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots: Three drafts, three Harris selections … it’s not that I’m necessarily a huge fan, but he’s a tremendous RB3. Thanks to Harris’ scoring prowess, none of the remaining backs were definitively better options at this stage.

6:11) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals: A strong draft start afforded this gamble. Hopkins will miss six games, sure, but he’s a borderline WR1 lock in PPR upon his return. It’s not too often you can plug that kind of talent into your WR3 slot.

7:02) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Securing my third-ranked passer in Round 7 ahead of the long end of my wait, Mahomes was tough to let pass. While the WR talent regressed, he makes players around him better and will be fine.

8:11) WR Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers: Lazard may emerge as the top fantasy receiver in Green Bay after the Davante Adams trade. It’s worth a late-round wager to find out. At a minimum, he’s adequate depth for me while Hopkins is out.

9:02) TE Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans: I’m much higher on Hooper’s rebound than most, and since I tend to wait on TEs, this one was a no-brainer. Tennessee’s WR situation is shaky, at best, and Hooper is an ideal fit for the system.

10:11) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants: Can the talented Golladay stay on the field? His quarterback situation could hold him back, but I’m willing to bank on Brian Daboll getting the most out of Daniel Jones. The rest is up to Golladay.

11:02) RB Marlon Mack, Houston Texans: I should’ve taken Tyler Allgeier over Golladay. The rookie went at the turn, forcing a pivot to Mack. A whole lotta “meh,” but he has a chance, which is all one can ask for this late.

12:11) TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: Kmet is one of my favorites for a breakout season, and the third-year tight end covers my backside if the Hooper gamble doesn’t pan out. There’s legit TE1 potential in Chicago’s new offense.

13:02) RB Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions: Since the Mack pick could go either way, a safe, reliable veteran was the target, and Williams fits the bill. Plus, D’Andre Swift has proven to be less than a model of health thus far.

14:11) WR Jamison Crowder, Buffalo Bills: In three years with Buffalo, Cole Beasley was a PPR powerhouse out of the slot, and Crowder should have little trouble assuming the role in this pass-heavy system. He provides excellent value-to-upside ratio.

Rounding out the draft: Arizona Cardinals RB Keaontay Ingram (Round 15), PK Daniel Carlson (Round 16), QB Jameis Winston (Round 17) and Miami Dolphins defense/special teams (Round 18).

2022 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings

Check out our preliminary PPR rankings ahead of the official June 1 release.

The Huddle’s official 2022 fantasy football rankings will be available via our premium membership as of June 1, customizable to your league’s scoring system. The following full-point PPR rankings are meant to tide over gamers until then and will not be updated after the premium package goes live.

Fantasy football mock draft series: May takeaways

Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?

It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. A recently hosted industry mock is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers of defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

In last year’s iteration, every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a lone receiver (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. This time out, we saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2.
Five RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s draft, which mostly consisted of receivers. This year, a half-dozen backs, two tight ends, and a quartet of receivers made up the second stanza.
The first QB came off the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes) last year, and Josh Allen was taken with the last pick of Round 5 this time around. Mahomes went second with the final selection of Round 6, followed by Justin Herbert in early Round 7. Five more went in the next 30 choices.
In the first 100 picks of last year’s draft, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were taken. In this May’s version, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends — no drastic changes. It’s nice to see more owners waiting on quarterbacks, though.
Drafting in the top eight is a great situation this year. You’re bound to come away with a legit No. 1 running back. There’s enough depth at the position to either go with a pair in the opening two rounds or alternate between RB and WR in the first four rounds while still coming away with a strong nucleus.
This theme also was on full display in 2021 drafts. Taking consecutive receivers to close out Round 1 wasn’t the ideal strategy, but the plan was to test it out. The position is so ridiculously deep that gamers can hold off, making the preferred strategy is to come out of the first three rounds with a single receiver.
Quarterback remains quite deep, too, with a viable starter being available into the 12th round. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like last year. Following the consensus top-six TEs — all of whom went in the first five rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 7 RBs, 5 WRs
2nd: 6 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
3rd: 8 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE
4th: 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
5th: 1 QB, 1 RBs, 9 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 1 QB, 3 RBs, 8 WRs
7th: 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
9th: 3 QBs, 6 RBs, 3 WRs
10th: 3 RBs, 7 WRs, 2 TEs

My team

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

1:12) Stefon Diggs: In PPR, his sheer volume alone makes up for the lack of scoring prowess. The Bills actually could lean on him even more this year if Gabriel Davis and Jamison Crowder don’t step up as much as expected.

2:01) Deebo Samuel: I’m not overly worried about the standoff, but Samuel’s aerial exploits may suffer with Trey Lance starting. Samuel also isn’t likely to rush nearly as much as a year ago. Talent usually wins out, however.

3:12) J.K. Dobbins: A WR-WR start was a mistake at No. 12. I should have drafted Leonard Fournette, Javonte Williams or D’Andre Swift instead of Deebo. Dobbins was injured early enough to be healthy, but he’s not an RB1.

4:01) Damien Harris: Choosing an early-down running back with heavy TD dependence isn’t how this was drawn up in PPR. Breece Hall was a consideration, but Harris is a safer RB2 candidate, and that’s what I needed here.

5:12) Josh Allen: Allen’s high ceiling can carry my weak RBs, and I love the Diggs stack. I usually wait on QBs; after seeing all of the value buys, I won’t give in to the temptation again.

6:01) Mike Williams: His all-or-nothing nature is not ideal, but Williams’ role in such a reliable, pass-friendly system makes for a rock-solid WR3 to help offset my shaky RBs. A WR14 finish again? No, but WR25-30 is fine.

7:12) Rashaad Penny: This is what happens when waiting to draft running backs … you start stockpiling risk-reward types at the most volatile position. Penny’s late surge last year was as real as his injury history and backfield competition.

8:01) DeAndre Hopkins: After waiting too long to draft my first running back (insert Deebo joke here), Hopkins presented an interesting flex gamble. Yes, he’ll miss six games, but Nuk’s volume will be a nice addition upon his return.

9:12) Tyler Allgeier: Another RB without a receiving role, Allgeier enters a decent situation for a TD-heavy role. Cordarrelle Patterson’s age-30 breakout won’t be repeated, although both QB options will steal TD opportunities from the rookie.

10:01) Michael Carter: Breece Hall should steal the show, but if he struggles or gets injured, Carter’s versatility will be a welcomed addition to lineups. This sort of high-upside depth is what to look for after a WR-WR start.

11:12) DeVante Parker: Why not? He’s far from a true WR1, but Parker has a reasonable shot to lead this mediocre passing attack in fantasy production. Parker’s biggest enemy, as usual, will be his own body failing him.

12:01) Austin Hooper: Hooper didn’t just forget how to catch once he signed with Cleveland, a team that totally misused his skills. A lack of weaponry for Ryan Tannehill — in a TE-friendly system — piques my interest.

13:12) Khalil Herbert: OC Luke Getsy comes from Green Bay and was no stranger to incorporating a 2-to-1 committee approach in which the RB2 gets enough volume to matter. Herbert did his part last year, so this is a worthy gamble.

14:01) Donovan Peoples-Jones: In Year 2, he took a significant step forward while catching passes from a battered Baker Mayfield. Deshaun Watson is a tremendous upgrade, and Amari Cooper helps draw defensive attention. DPJ is a steal this late.

Fantasy football team previews: NFC West

QB changes, suspension woes, and a chance to repeat dominate the NFC West’s outlook.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy football team previews: AFC West

Huge changes with Denver and Vegas look to turn the division on its head.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy football team previews: AFC South

Plenty of turnover in the division will make things interesting in fantasy.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy football team previews: NFC South

Key coaching changes and QB news have dominated the NFC South’s offseason.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.