Tag: 2022 fantasy football strategy

Is 2022 the year David Njoku finally lives up to his potential?

New quarterbacks and less proven competition await David Njoku.

As we revisit the Cleveland Browns’ passing game, having discussed their receiving corps last month, we must once again open with the status of quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was subjected to a three-day disciplinary hearing in late June with post-hearing briefs due on July 12. With training camp now just over a week away, we should expect to learn the length of Watson’s suspension at any point. Speculation has the QB’s suspension ranging anywhere from a few games to a full season, but until we get official word it’s meaningless chatter.

With Baker Mayfield now a member of the Carolina Panthers, veteran Jacoby Brissett stands ready to make however many starts are needed to cover Watson’s suspension. The journeyman has started 37 games in his career across three franchises, compiling a 14-23 record and a 36-to-17 TD:INT ratio in that time. Brissett is as prototypical a game manager as you’re like to find on an NFL roster — he averaged 218 yards and a touchdown per game in five starts with the Miami Dolphins last year. Cleveland also will look to add another veteran passer should Watson miss time.

Although clearly the Browns’ passing attack would be much more potent with Watson at the helm, the strength of their running game should keep defenses from focusing on the pass. To that end, we saw Case Keenum (now with the Buffalo Bills) go 2-0 in his two starts for Cleveland while throwing for 375 yards and three TDs in a role like what Brissett would fill. Those are modest numbers, but outside of wide receiver Amari Cooper there aren’t a lot of proven targets, so the tight ends should see action.

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB Chris Carson, Seahawks

What does the future hold for Carson after neck surgery?

Running back Chris Carson has been one of the great NFL stories in recent lore – a seventh-round draft pick in 2017 with no guarantee of making the Seattle Seahawks‘ roster in the post-Marshawn Lynch era to the featured back who posted back-to-back seasons with more than 1,150 rushing yards. He never seemed to have a career locked down for himself, especially when the Seahawks used a first-round pick in 2018 on RB Rashaad Penny.

Overcoming long odds, Carson was the man and it looked to stay that way — until last season when he suffered a severe neck injury that ended his season after just four games and required a significant surgery to repair the damage. Unlike other routine surgeries, neck injuries are a different topic completely. The can end athletic careers, much less one of running backs who have large men with bad intentions and often a full head of steam chasing them down every time they get their hands on the ball.

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The Seahawks have put no timetable on when – or if – Carson can return. In an interview during Seattle’s OTAs, head coach Pete Carroll referenced Carson in the past tense a couple of times – giving the clear insinuation that he may never be coming back to resume his NFL career. While he said all the right things in terms of the Seahawks players being a family and sticking by their injured brothers when they’re down and uncertain about their future, Carroll sounded much more resigned to the idea Carson may not want to come back to resume his career for quality of life concerns.

His biggest hurdle may end up being Carson’s inability to get medical clearance from the Seahawks’ doctors. In the case of neck injuries, there is a very high standard that needs to be reached before clearance is given, and those types of injuries are the result of as many retirements as returns to field.

The Seahawks re-signed Penny in the offseason to hedge their bets in the event Carson can’t come back from his neck injury and doubled down by drafting Doak Walker Award winner Kenneth Walker III from Michigan State in the second round of the 2022 draft. Seattle has a lot of needs, and quarterbacks were available. That move spoke volumes.

Throw in carryover players DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer and Seattle has a stable of running backs who can get along just fine whether Carson is there or not.

Fantasy football outlook

It’s always tragic when a career is cut short by injury and a player’s dream dies with it in his 20s, but there are other factors that need to come into play outside the entertainment world of the NFL.

Carson fulfilled his dream of playing in the NFL and earning a second contract that potentially sets him up for life after football. Some players are willing to accept the risks, but in this case, don’t be stunned if Carson eventually announces his retirement without every playing again. It may not be in the coming weeks or months, but his fantasy value has dropped off the table, because he doesn’t need to make a business decision. He needs to make a life decision. Carson has no fantasy value at this point.

Fantasy football injury outlook: WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers

Where does Godwin’s rehab stand, and is he worth the risk in fantasy?

In Week 15 of the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin, the most targeted player in Tampa Bay’s pass-happy offense, suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament. As is often the case, the timetable for returning to full speed from such an injury is nine to 12 months, especially for wide receivers putting a lot of pressure on healthy ligaments when making separation-creating cuts.

In trying to determine the prognosis for any injured player recovering in the offseason, there are two primary factors that are taken into consideration – what is the team saying about the extent of the injury, and did the organization come up with a backup plan.

In the case of the Buccaneers, it was both.

The team sent out a positive sign this spring when, despite the injury, the Buccaneers signed Godwin to a three-year contract extension worth $60 million with $40 million in guarantees. In the salary cap era, teams don’t make that kind of financial commitment without having a high level of confidence that the injured player will return to pre-injury form.

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However, Tampa Bay also signed Russell Gage, formerly of the Atlanta Falcons, to a three-year contract in free agency. Ideally, Gage would be the No. 3 receiver in the offense, but the deal is worth $30 million – a heavy tax to pay for a No. 3 receiver. It would appear that the Bucs wanted to make sure that Tom Brady has the weapons he needs as he returns for another run at a Super Bowl, and TB12 himself recruited Gage, so it’s hard to say if there’s more to it than that….

The arrival of Gage gives Tampa Bay options when it comes to how it approaches the timetable for Godwin’s return. Earlier this month, Bucs officials said that Godwin is progressing well with his timetable to return, which would be little to no contact in training camp and the preseason and determining in Week 1 if he is healed enough to be a full-time player. Gage gives the team insurance either way.

Fantasy football outlook

He hasn’t been seen on the field in real-world football situations, leaving some to speculate as to whether Godwin will be able to be on the field Week 1. Fantasy auctions and drafts will come and go before anyone has a true handle on the level of readiness Godwin has, which could play into the hands of owners who are willing to take some risks.

With the uncertainty, Godwin could be devalued on draft day. At best, he will be a low-end WR2 in a conventional league. That said, all accounts coming out of Tampa Bay say his rehab is going as hoped and his target date for a full return is Week 1. In this case, don’t let his injury prevent you from making a move on him because, as a low-end WR2, he’s a value pick if he’s good to go. Just prepare for a sluggish start to his sixth pro season, and draft accordingly because of his long-term track record of durability issues.

Fantasy football: Checking in on Carolina’s tight end situation

Is there anything of note to be found for fantasy purposes?

If you’re looking for a situation that’s rife with uncertainty and has no shortage of variables, then you have arrived at your destination because seemingly everything with the Carolina Panthers is in a state of flux. That starts at the top where head coach Matt Rhule could be entering a make-or-break campaign just three seasons into a seven-year, $62 million deal that convinced Rhule to leave Baylor.

He’ll turn to Ben McAdoo as his new offensive coordinator, a curious move given McAdoo hasn’t filled a high-profile role since being fired as the New York Giants head coach following the 2017 season. In fairness, he has proven to be a competent play-caller.

Things remain murky at quarterback as well with incumbent Sam Darnold now joined by former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, who was acquired from the Cleveland Browns, marking the second straight offseason the Panthers have traded for a quarterback from the class of 2018. Beyond an encouraging start, Darnold was mostly unimpressive last year and would seem to be on the outside looking in as we head into training camp despite the expected “open competition” talk.

Mayfield suffered through a difficult 2021 that saw the Browns lose confidence in his ability to lead them where they wanted to go and ultimately prompted a trade for Deshaun Watson. Once that move was made, Mayfield’s fate in Cleveland was sealed. While Mayfield is far from a sure thing, don’t read too much into his struggles last year as he played through a difficult shoulder injury that required offseason surgery to correct. Prior to that, the former Oklahoma Sooner averaged 3,705 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions per season; the turnovers are an issue to be sure, but he’s been more successful than Darnold.

During his time in Cleveland, Mayfield worked with some talented tight ends, most notably David Njoku and Austin Hooper (now with the Tennessee Titans). A year ago, that tandem combined for 74 catches, 820 yards, and seven TDs. Those aren’t huge numbers, but if limiting Mayfield’s interceptions is a focus it could lead to shorter throws to tight ends as well as talented but oft injured running back Christian McCaffrey. With that in mind, let’s look at the top two tight ends in Carolina.

Digging deep: Is there any fantasy football value among Indy’s tight ends?

Can Matt Ryan get the most out of this group?

A season ago while with the Atlanta Falcons, new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan connected with tight ends Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst a combined 94 times. In fact, only once during the veteran’s final five seasons in Atlanta did the team fail to have a tight end catch more than 50 passes in a year — and that was 2017 when current Tennessee Titans tight end Austin Hooper caught 49. Go back even further and you’ll see the prolific numbers Tony Gonzalez put up during his time with the Falcons. Bottom line, Ryan has a long history of targeting his tight ends.

Now the question becomes what does head coach Frank Reich want to do? With four different starting quarterbacks in four years, it’s hard to get a read. In 2018, Andrew Luck’s final year, tight ends were targeted 168 times. In 2019, it was 146. In 2020, it fell to 119. Last season, it was just 103. Clearly, that’s a downward trend, but things could tick upward in 2022 with Ryan taking over a team that has only one established wide receiver in the form of Michael Pittman Jr.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs: What to expect in fantasy football

Here’s how the Tampa backfield should shake out in 2022.

The running back room for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a different look this season after the team allowed Ronald Jones to leave via free agency.

While the exodus of Jones wasn’t unexpected, it does create a void, since he had been the team’s leading rusher in 2019 and 2020 and was No. 2 to Leonard Fournette last season.

New Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles inherits a veteran, playoff-tested team that won’t have a lot of positional uncertainty. However, the running back battle behind Fournette will have to clear itself out during training camp and the preseason.

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Fantasy football injury outlook: Odell Beckham Jr.

The timing of OBJ’s injury certainly doesn’t help his cause.

In the early portion of his career, Odell Beckham Jr. was rewriting the history books with the New York Giants. Four years and three teams later, Beckham is at a career crossroads and currently powerless to do anything about it.

Beckham remains an unsigned free agent and likely will be for some time after tearing his left ACL twice in two years. What makes Beckham’s current status different than most players coming back from injury is the timing of when it happened and his contract situation.

When Beckham tore his ACL in late October 2020, it took him 11 months to return. He didn’t make it back on the field until late September 2021. He missed training camp, preseason, and the first two regular season games, which wasn’t unusual. The timetable for coming back from a torn ACL is historically nine to 12 months, depending on the severity. The earlier in a season an injury occurs, the better the chance to be ready for the start of the following year.

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That is what makes the Beckham’s second ACL tear so daunting. It didn’t happen in October or November. It happened Feb. 13, 2022, in Super Bowl LVI. Beckham has recently claimed he played the second half of the 2021 season with the torn ACL, but it wasn’t diagnosed until it tore for good on the biggest stage of them all.

There are two components to Beckham’s recovery that are problematic: The first is the ability of his knee to recover from a second tear in less than 17 months. That’s a lot to ask of a young player, much less a player who turns 30 in November. The healing process slows with time, and there can’t be any setbacks to his progress in rehabilitating the injury, because he’s already likely looking at midseason at a minimum before a potential return.

Second, and perhaps worse, is that Beckham is a free agent. Effectively run out of town in both New York and Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams signed Beckham for the remainder of 2021 as a mercenary for hire. He isn’t rehabbing at a team facility with its in-house medical personnel. He’s on his own, which creates its own set of issues in trying to get a new contract, but OBJ at least knows what it takes to rehab this specific injury.

Any team willing to pay Beckham before the start of the season will be making an investment on a player who will miss the first half at a minimum. Given how tight salary cap dollars are, especially for established teams with highly paid quarterbacks, there won’t be a robust market to sign Beckham among legitimate contenders unless he’s willing to sign another team-friendly deal like he did with the Rams last year.

Fantasy football outlook

If Beckham wants to have a career that lasts another four or five years, the best advice he can be given is to spend 2022 rehabbing and sign a deal with a team for 2023 when he’s fully healthy. Any team that signs him during this season will be doing so simply to have a part-time guy – and will likely pay accordingly. His best landing spot at this point is to re-sign with the Rams and not rush back. Don’t be shocked if you don’t see OBJ at all this season.

Should he ink with a team prior to the heart of fantasy football draft season, Beckham can be left to the wire in all but the deepest of leagues or those with multiple IR spots. He very well may flash a time or two in 2022, if given the opportunity, it will require a roster spot being absorbed for most of the fantasy campaign. That’s too much risk and not enough return on a draft-day investment.

Fantasy football mock draft series: June takeaways

Recapping a recent fantasy football PPR draft and more!

It is well into June, and fantasy football drafts are churning along. A recently hosted industry live draft is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks, here are a few observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

  • In last year’s iteration, Round 1 saw nine running backs, two receivers and a tight end come off the board. This time out, we saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2 and Justin Jefferson as the third selection.
  • Six RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s draft, followed by one fewer receiver and another tight end. This year was no different.
  • The first QB came off the board in Round 3 last year, and Josh Allen was taken with the opening pick of Round 5 this time around. Justin Herbert went just two picks later, and only a pair of passers came off the board in the next 31 selections (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes).
  • In the first 100 picks, eight QBs, 38 RBs, 45 WRs and nine TEs — no significant changes from the May version when six QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends.
  • This was the first time I had selected from the No. 1 hole, and there’s one and only choice to be made to create a stress-free situation.
  • Having the first pick meant my second and third selections were chosen consecutively, which effectively means the order is irrelevant. Coming out of the first three rounds with at least two running backs is almost always my plan when selecting in the first four spots. Wide receiver is so ridiculously deep that gamers can hold off, making the preferred strategy is to come out of the first three rounds with a single wideout.
  • Quarterback remains quite deep, too, with a viable starter being available into the 13th round. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like last year. Following the consensus top-six TEs — all of whom went in the first five rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz.
  • I was not entirely sure what to expect for my first receiver entering the draft, since many owners in this league tend to favor wideouts early, but it worked out nicely as you’ll read in a moment.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 7 RBs, 5 WRs
2nd: 6 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
3rd: 7 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE
4th: 2 RBs, 8 WRs, 2 TEs
5th: 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 2 QBs, 1 RB, 7 WRs, 2 TEs
7th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 3 QBs, 6 RBs, 3 WRs
9th: 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 7 WRs
10th: 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE

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My team

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

Tips to consistently draft a fantasy football champion

Simple methods and tips to create a consistent winner in your fantasy football leagues.

When formulating the basis for this article, my brain went into hyperdrive trying to decide where to begin. There are countless tips and pieces of advice to be dished for each nuanced way of playing the game. To spare this from becoming a 200-page dissertation on all things fantasy football, the focus is the most common methods to build a consistent winner in traditional league designs.

Also see: Fantasy football draft guide

Before we dive in, be sure to check out the following article for tips on which pitfalls to avoid.

All set? Great. Let us dive into the preparation stage, shall we?

Draft prep 101

  • Study, study, study. While subscribing to The Huddle gives you an undeniable edge, we also offer plenty of free pieces to help along the way. Also, there is a bunch out there that is not just ours. For as much as we love creating new winners, I’d be remiss to pretend like gamers should rely on an exclusive site. My most sincere advice: Blend our premium product with some free sites’ offerings and adapt what works best for you.
  • Mock draft … but not in the old-fashioned way. Utilize the glory that is a best-ball draft. People put real money on the line, and there is no roster management. When there’s nothing at stake, drafters aren’t as likely to take it as seriously, thus skewing the results and mucking up what could be learned. Even though best-ball drafts require a little different strategy, there’s still a huge parallel to traditional formats, particularly in the front half of the draft.
  • Don’t assume owners will be casual about a league, no matter how friendly the participants are with one another. Some formats cater to newbies, and if you’re not ready to put in the work before a draft and during the season, pursue one of those formats. It is fair to presume a two-QB, superflex league that scores first downs and completions will be far more hostile an environment than the 12-team, standard-scoring, vanilla league. I’ve played in way too many home leagues where a buddy joins only to give up after being thumped in the first month of the season. That severe lack of competitive juices isn’t fair to anyone in the league. This same sense can be applied to picking the right league.
  • Tinker. Test out different draft spots and strategies. Take notes of what you tend to see happen after the first round if you go, say, RB, or pick an early wideout. What are you left with on the way back? What would it have looked like with a different course of action. None of this is meant to second-guess yourself but rather open your eyes to different scenarios.
  • But don’t tinker too much. Let’s face it: We all have our preferences and tend to stay the course for what has worked before, but it can do a disservice to accounting for changing trends. Remember when “Zero RB” was en vogue and people loaded up on early wideouts only to be crushed by the teams that stayed true to building a balanced roster? That’s not even meant to be an argument for RB-heavy drafting early on. The point being, sometimes we get too cute. People want to stand out from the crowd and be innovative, yet there are only so many ways to remake the wheel.
  • There’s a reason people prefer Classic Coke to one of the modern twists, or why little kids ask to hear the same bedtime story every night of the week for a month straight. Tried and true works, and people are looking for comfort. While we’re all going to have a horrid season here or there, even more so if you play in a million leagues, something can be said for accepting the prospect of defeat. I’m not saying settling for defeat, but acceptance of its eventual inevitability. Big difference. Understand you are not going to win every single year in the same league. But also realize the best chance of winning is consistently utilizing proven methods for success.

Life lessons aside, you’ve studied up, formulated some ideas of player worth and mocked a few times — I like to get at least five mocks in before my first real draft. It’s hard to get a good feel for any consensus reads with only one or two drafts.

You’ve done yourself no service by ignoring the news. Look at how many players were injured in the first week of training camp alone. Don’t let your hard work go to waste over not keeping up with the NFL’s daily ongoings.

To piggyback on the last point, familiarize yourself with all teams. While you mustn’t know that backup long snapper, at least be able to recognize the starting skill players. A fun way to do this is by playing a specific video game that will remain nameless.

So you have kept up with what’s in the headlines? Great. How’s that strategy coming along? Work-in-progress. Are you rigid or willing to be flexible when necessary? Only you can answer this in the heat of the moment. How do you even know when is the right time to deviate? Experience.

Questionable practices

So many concepts and tools are thrown at gamers and treated as if they are the only way to do it. Call me contrarian, but I beg to differ. Anyone with a decent amount of fantasy experience and a hint of objectivity will admit there’s more than one way to hoist the fake Lombardi Trophy.

That said, here are a few pitfalls to avoid along the way when trying new things:

  • Average draft position (ADP) is no better than a guideline and, in many situations, drastically hinders creativity. Too often, fantasy enthusiasts are sold this bill of goods that ADP is in effect how you should draft. Nonsense. I tend to ignore it after the first few weeks of mocking, and it’s of no use to me into the final month of drafting. The only value I find in between is to utilize ADP for checking out weekly trends … which guys are moving up and down. Buuuut … if you have been following the news, you’re going to have a finger on the pulse of trends.
  • Player trends are nice to see in a macro sense before a draft, but getting caught up in a positional run during a draft is a quick way to screw up. Let everyone else do their thing. Control what you can control. In this scenario, it is being disciplined.
  • Ignoring last year’s results is skilled artistry. Way too may people fall back on the “well this happened last year” mindset. It’s also why people become so surprised when a player breaks out. Last year was last year, and short of a few unique situations, it should remain in the past. Coaching and system changes, personnel moves, schedule swings (long home/away stretches), chemistry, game flow, injuries … the list goes on and on. All of those aspects of a game that are so dependent on a team effort have too large of an impact on fantasy results to assume they’ll matter a year later. Heck, most of those things wildly swing from month to month in a given season.
  • The same goes for people obsessed with fantasy strength of schedule, particularly those focused on the fantasy playoff matches in August. By being enslaved to this highly subjective metric, you’re attempting to predict the future based on inapplicable, if not faulty, data. You’re saying, “Player A’s schedule in Weeks 15-17 are favorable because those three teams were positional pushovers last season.” Think about that in relation to how teams fell off or improved year over year, and also apply it to inseason fantasy SoS. You are far better off learning the intricacies of which players tend to perform better against certain coverages or defensive schemes, etc. Pay more attention to how defenses handle running backs in zone-blocking schemes vs. power-blocking or hybrid systems. What about receivers vs. press-man or zone? Like with most situations in life, making a blanket determination is a terrible plan. It’s really stems from the absence of having a plan.
  • Focus on opportunity over talent, especially at running back. The offense even may be mediocre, but if the backup running back ascends into the starter’s spot, he usually has more value than almost every part-time, situational back.
  • Expecting a specific player to be available is a problem waiting to happen. All too often I hear from owners stating something to the effect of, ” Player A or Player B will be my pick at No. 8 overall (for example), so I intend to come back in Round 2 with Player C or Player D.” … It’s nice to have a group of players with whom you’re comfortable making your pick, but don’t fall into the trap of banking on a specific name. Focusing on a position is fine, as long as you’re willing to adjust your strategy, when necessary.
  • Some sources tell fantasy players to go for broke with their draft strategy — and it’s the right move … sometimes. For new gamers or those trying to feel their way through unfamiliar strategies or league formats, aim for the middle as your floor. I mean this as your goal should be to field a competitive team each week, not necessarily shoot for the highest score. Why? The playoffs. In classic head-to-head setups, the goal should be to get into the playoffs, especially for novices. Sure, a first-round bye is helpful, but get into the postseason and you have a chance that six other league mates do not. Simplistic thinking for a simplistic situation. Swinging for the fences in every draft may connect now and again, but the odds are against consistently being competitive.

Personal preference

Everyone has their own preferred way of constructing a team, and we all have experimented with different fashions of building a roster. Some have worked well one year and not so much the next. But no matter how much we experiment, we need a fundamental blueprint. Every game plan should have a core set of principles. Barring some radically unexpected situation, abiding by these rules is a sound way to produce consistently strong rosters.

For me, some tenets include:

  • Avoiding early QBs. A quarterback rarely enters my brain until the sixth round before I will entertain drafting the position in standard leagues. There’s just way too much value later on to consider one without a slide.
  • I tend to come away from the first six rounds with three running backs and a trio of receivers. Most of my recent drafts have produced running backs in the first two picks, followed by a pair of receivers and then which ever of the two positions provides the best value. I have taken three straight RBs to open a draft more than once this year, and it becomes awfully dicey to field a stout receiving corps doing it this way. This works easier in casual formats, because players tend to reach for QBs in comparison to more competitive setups. If I can establish a starting core of three running backs and as many wideouts in the first eight picks, the rest of the team generally falls into place.

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  • I almost never draft a tight end before Round 6, and if you do, it becomes even more important to avoid quarterback until later on. Admittedly, there’s a massive drop-off from the top six guys down to the next tier of players. I am confident in my ability to draft two tight ends late and play the matchups, a strategy not recommended for casual players.
  • In classic scoring, never draft a kicker until Round 16, and I don’t draft defenses before the 15th. No exceptions. In typical leagues, never draft a second defense, and a second kicker has no business being on a traditional roster after a draft.
  • Bye weeks are mostly meaningless to me. There are situations where I try to avoid having two players with the same bye, such as quarterbacks or tight ends with early byes. For late-season byes, I can make up for it and carry a third QB for a week. The same applies to tight ends.
  • This year, I prefer to draft out of the middle of the first round. This works the best if one follows my target of an even split of RBs and WRs in the opening eight rounds. It may not work as well for someone wanting to have each a QB and TE by the end of Round 4. I have found that the best blend of talent comes out of the middle slots in a 12-teamer this summer.

Address your shortcomings

I’ll assume in this segment players have tried the game but with little success. The concepts still apply to first-time players, but it’s easy to start out starry-eyed and quickly get beaten down in fantasy after several failed efforts.

It should go without saying that for as much as fantasy footballers look to others for advice, the person drafting the team is responsible for their decisions. This goes along way in feeling comfortable with the build of your roster, and it is also instrumental in holding oneself accountable.

Think of the golfer who has played casually for years and continues to slice the ball but cannot seem to figure out how to improve. Eventually, they either get discouraged and quit, or they play to the weakness of their game and remain stuck in neutral. They, in some cases, don’t know better, or, in others, won’t make the effort to change. This is a common problem that is easy to fix, if the player is willing to 1) acknowledge there is a problem 2) actually seek a change in their swing.

It’s no different in fantasy football. Owners who consistently finish poorly need to recognize the error of their ways and look to make corrections to the process. It’s not that these owners are just bad at playing the game. Sometimes they get bad advice. I’ll be the first to admit when I give poor individual player advice, but the concepts and reasoning can be right in a losing effort. To go back to golf for an analogy, one can strike a great shot that has an unfortunate bounce. Anyone who has hit a flag stick on approach only to see the ball ricochet into an unplayable lie knows the feeling.

No matter how much advice — good or bad — one receives, there always will remain a layer of reasoning involved. I don’t like telling someone which player to start without explaining how I arrived there, but rather give them the tools to learn what to look for in similar situations.

This requires traffic to flow in both directions, of course. Some people don’t want to think beyond the scope a “start Player A or B” view of fantasy football, and that’s all right. Just be sure to realize to which camp you belong.

The most consistent winners understand how to spot bad advice and also how to affirm their own beliefs of a situation. The better you become at playing fantasy football, the more often your line of questioning is mostly seeking confirmation or a challenge to your own thoughts.

In closing

The biggest takeaway I can offer is to always question the why of a fantasy scenario, someone’s advice, your predicament, etc. The sooner you understand how to apply concepts and practice principles, the more consistent you will be in the standings.

Fantasy football: Players entering a contract year in 2022

Which players may have added incentive this season?

While simply entering a contract year is not a guarantee of increased fantasy football production, us gamers look to unearth any extra motivation that may help real-life players put put our fake squads over the top.

The key when evaluating such data is to treat it as another piece of the puzzle and not get too caught up in this extra info. The salary cap increased as usual this year after a dip during the height of the pandemic. We’ve seen a wild offseason of player movement this offseason — somewhat due to last year’s uptick in one-year deals creative a deep class of free agents at wide receiver. Well, receivers are deep yet again, and running back shows a few promising names as well, so look for it to continue into 2023’s free agency season.

The data is based on USA TODAY Sports’ partner Spotrac.com’s free-agent charts.

Notes: All players listed below will be unrestricted free agents as of March 2023, focusing on those who have made a dent in fantasy in recent years or could be in position to matter. Ages reflect how old the player will be upon the opening free agency. Players in bold font are considered to have the most to gain from a strong season.

2022 contract-year players