The FedExCup playoffs continue this week in Delaware with the 2022 BMW Championship, the 2nd round of the PGA Tour’s postseason. Wilmington Country Club is hosting a tour event for the 1st time, so this is a relatively new course for just about everyone in the field.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 BMW Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
It’s a star-studded 70-player field as the game’s top players push to make the Tour Championship’s final 30-man field and attempt to win the FedExCup and its $18 million payout. Will Zalatoris, who won the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, is now No. 1 in the season-long standings, topping world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. The field includes Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas, but the No. 2 player in the world, Cameron Smith, withdrew because of a hip injury.
Wilmington CC is a longer course at 7,534 yards but it’s still only a par-71 with 3 par-5s, two of which are more than 630 yards long. Wilmington doesn’t have the amount of water that TPC Southwind does, but this could be a challenging new course for players.
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BMW Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Jon Rahm (+280)
Rahm gained 2.08 strokes from tee-to-green last week, which ranked 3rd in the field, according to Data Golf. However, he seemed to struggle reading the breaks on the greens all week, ranking in the bottom half in strokes gained: putting (-0.09). I’ll back Rahm in Wilmington where it seems good drivers of the ball will have an advantage.
Rory McIlroy (+230)
McIlroy shockingly missed the cut last week in his 1st start since the Open Championship, which may have been attributed to some rust. He just didn’t look sharp with any club in his bag. Assuming he’s knocked off some of the cobwebs from his time off, he should be back to his regular form at Wilmington CC this week.
Cameron Young (+480)
Young didn’t miss the cut like McIlroy, but he did only finish T-31 – which, to be honest, is a disappointing result for the young bomber. Wilmington should fit his game even better, given his strength off the tee and approaches into greens.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Justin Thomas (+330)
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BMW Championship – Top-10 picks
Will Zalatoris (+190)
Zalatoris’ odds to finish in the top 10 are short this week, but that’s usually the case with him. He’s a top-10 machine, posting 9 top-10 finishes in 23 starts this season – including last week’s win in Memphis. He’s an excellent driver of the golf ball and he won at TPC Southwind despite only hitting 5 of 14 fairways. He’ll turn that around at Wilmington CC and continue his hot streak.
Viktor Hovland (+270)
You can get pretty good odds on Hovland because it’s been a shaky year for him, even though he’s turned it around with a T-4 and T-20 in his last 2 starts. He’s trending in the right direction and his performance in Memphis proves that, showing his T-4 at the Open wasn’t a fluke.
See also: BMW Championship odds, picks and predictions
Cameron Davis (+450)
If you want to get a little bit riskier, make a top-10 bet on Davis. When you look at his last 5 starts, however, it doesn’t seem all that risky. He hasn’t finished worse than T-16 in that stretch and has 2 top-10s, plus a T-13 last week in Memphis. He’s playing better than ever right now and with his length off the tee, he’ll have an advantage.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Collin Morikawa (+240)
- Tony Finau (+190)
BMW Championship – Top-20 picks
Joohyung Kim (+105)
Week in and week out, Kim shows he can hang with the big guns. In his last 3 starts, he went 7th, 1st and T-13. Now with an even smaller field and no cut, I love his chances to come in the top-20 for the 4th straight time.
Denny McCarthy (+250)
McCarthy bounced back from back-to-back missed cuts by coming in 20th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship – and that was despite not breaking par on Saturday or Sunday. He had 3 top-10s in a span of 4 starts from the Memorial Tournament to the John Deere Classic, so he’s been playing well for a few months.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Sahith Theegala (+185)
- Adam Scott (+155)
- Aaron Wise (+135)
BMW Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Aaron Wise (-120) vs. Russell Henley (+100)
Wise and Henley are on a similar tier entering the BMW Championship as good players who may not be ready to fully break through yet. Wise has struggled with his putter all year and did so again at the FedEx St. Jude Championship – even though he still notched a 3rd straight top-35 finish.
Rory McIlroy (-135) vs. Patrick Cantlay (+115)
How often does McIlroy struggle for 2 weeks in a row? It’s rare, which is why I’m going to him in this matchup with Cantlay. It’s not that I don’t like Cantlay in Wilmington, I just think McIlroy’s advantage off the tee will prove pivotal.
Cameron Davis (-110) vs. Davis Riley (-110)
As I mentioned earlier with Davis, he’s playing some of his best golf ever. Riley is a great ball-striker too, but Davis is red hot and I’m riding that momentum on a course that could favor long hitters.
BMW Championship – Top South American
Mito Pereira (+280)
I took Pereira to be the top South American last week and while he didn’t deliver, he looked more comfortable than he has after missing four straight cuts. Joaquin Niemann (+130) is once again the favorite in this bet, but I’ll take Pereira at longer odds.
BMW Championship – First-round leader
Tony Finau (+2000)
Finau only ranks 30th in 1st-round scoring average this year but he’s gone sub-70 in 13 straight rounds dating back to the final round of the Open Championship. He’s the hottest player in the world right now with 2 wins and a T-5 in his last 5 starts. Ride that wave and hope he stays hot on Thursday.
Sungjae Im (+3000)
Im ranks 12th in 1st-round scoring average, and although he only shot even par in Round 1 last Thursday, his 2 first-round scores before that were 65 and 63. He’s very capable of going low to start a tournament.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group D winner: Adam Scott (+350)
For this bet, Scott is up against Tyrrell Hatton (+300), Corey Conners (+300), Brian Harman (+350) and Billy Horschel (+350). It’s a closely contested group with no clear-cut favorite, in my opinion, but Scott is coming into this week in great form after tying for 5th in Memphis. If his putter stays hot, he should emerge as the top finisher in this group.
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