When will the Lions win? Breaking down the remaining schedule

Breaking down the remaining Detroit Lions schedule and the chances for victory against each opponent

There are just six games left for the Detroit Lions to avoid the ignominy of another winless season. Now 0-10-1 after losing a winnable game against the visiting Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving, it’s getting very late in the year to try and break the seal on the win column.

It’s not going to be easy. The Lions will not be favored in any of their remaining six matchups. The teams on the schedule have a combined record of 37-29 and all but one are within a game of a postseason berth.

Here is how the Lions schedule looks for the rest of the season and their chances of winning each game.

When will the Lions win? Weighing the chances of victory against each remaining opponent

Going game-by-game, here are the Lions chances at picking up a win against each of Detroit’s remaining foes

With Sunday’s 34-11 loss at home to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Detroit Lions fell to 0-6 under head coach Dan Campbell. The Jacksonville Jaguars avoided that dubious record by snapping their 20-game losing streak and beating the Miami Dolphins earlier that day, leaving the Lions as the NFL’s lone winless team.

When will the Lions win? It’s going to require a better effort and execution than the team showed against Cincinnati to beat anyone, but there are some potential “Ws” on the remaining 11-game schedule.

Going game-by-game, here are the Lions chances at picking up a win against each of Detroit’s remaining foes.

8 bold predictions for the 2021 Detroit Lions

8 bold predictions for the 2021 Detroit Lions on the eve of the Week 1 kickoff

It’s time for the season predictions for the 2021 Detroit Lions. With so many new faces in important places and so little preseason action to base anything off, the subtitle here is definitely “predictions sure to be proven absurdly wrong”, so keep that in mind as you read through them.

Without further ado, here is what the look into the crystal ball says for the Lions in the upcoming season.

Frank Ragnow leads the way for Lions players in latest Madden 22 ratings

The Madden ratings were not kind for the Detroit Lions, but there are notable ratings that are quite interesting among the team

In the midst of the opening of training camp, EA Sports released their latest Madden 22 ratings for every player and team. With the new regime in place, not many people have high hopes for the Detroit Lions this coming season, and it showed with the ratings that were given to the team and players.

With only five players managing to receive an 80 overall rating or higher, the team came at a 74 overall rating, coming in at third-worst in the league behind the Carolina Panthers (73 overall) and the New York Jets (72 overall).

Frank Ragnow comes in as the highest-rated Lion with an 88 overall rating, which was good enough to (barely) crack Madden’s Top-100 players — coming in right at 100. To no surprise, he is the lone Lions representative. Ragnow is easily the best player on the Lions and will be looked upon as a cornerstone for the organization going through a rebuild.

T.J. Hockenson follows with an 85 overall rating, landing him as the 8th-best tight end in the league. That seems disrespectful considering who is ahead of him: Hunter Henry, Rob Gronkowski, and Austin Hooper. None of those three tight ends came near what Hockenson produced last year and it leaves you scratching your head.

Next comes Michael Brockers (82 overall), who will be looked upon providing a veteran presence, especially for the two rookies, Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill, while providing a force up the middle. Trey Flowers comes in with an 81 overall rating as a right outside linebacker, following suit to his position change from end. He will be a player to keep your eye on with the new coaching and see how he responds.

Finishing out the top five lands us in the special teams category with Pro Bowl sensation punter Jack Fox with an 80 overall rating. Fox lit the NFL on fire leading, averaging 49.1 yards per punt, ranking third in the league, and was easily was one of the better players for the Lions last season.

To round out the top ten Lions, Jamie Collins (79 overall), Tyrell Williams (79 overall), Romeo Okwara (79 overall), D’Andre Swift (78 overall), and Taylor Decker (78 overall). Jamaal Williams finishes outside the top ten with a 77 overall rating, but interesting how close the two running backs are rated.

For the rookies, Penei Sewell comes at a respectable 75 overall, landing him eighth among rookies. McNeill and Onwuzurike each earn a 71 overall rating, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Amon-Ra St. Brown receive a 67 overall rating, Derrick Barnes gets a 66 rating, and Jemar Jefferson lands with a 64 rating.

Since these two are tied at the hip with comparisons, Jared Goff comes in with a 77 overall rating, while ex-Lion Matthew Stafford receives an 83 overall rating.

Other interesting rating nuggets for the Lions:

  • Brockers comes in with the highest tackle rating with a 96, ahead of Aaron Donald with a 95.
  • Williams ranks as the third-best back in the carrying attribute with a 97 rating. Also, rates at the 20th-best back in stiff-arm with an 85 rating.
  • Melifonwu ranks as the 18th-best player (95 rating) in the jumping rating, the best among rookies
  • Goff ranks as the 11th best (86 rating) in medium throw accuracy, 12th best quarterback (88 rating) in the play-action category, and short-throw accuracy (90 rating). But comes at 29th overall with an 89 throw power rating.
  • Kalif Raymond rates as the fastest Lion with a 94 rating in the speed section.
  • Ragnow comes in as the 13th-toughest player rating with a 98 overall, but it should be a 99 considering he played with a broken throat.

USA TODAY’s win projection for the Lions is a harsh reality check

The USA TODAY win projection for the Detroit Lions is a harsh reality check

The Detroit Lions are at the beginning of a rebuild, something the team itself has readily acknowledged. And the stark reality of just what that means in the short-term after the failed Bob Quinn/Matt Patricia reign is starting to materialize.

In short, it means a lot of predictions of a lot more losses than wins in the 2021 season for the Lions. That’s certainly true with USA TODAY’s projection from analyst Nate Davis.

Davis pegs the Lions to finish with a 3-14 record in head coach Dan Campbell’s first season at the helm in Detroit. It’s the second-lowest win total amongst the projections, with the Houston Texans predicted to bottom out with a 1-16 season.

There is an optimistic tone for the long-term, but it’s drowned by the foreboding schedule Detroit faces,

Detroit Lions (3-14): The philosophical overhaul is intriguing – including the expected re-emphasis of the run game – and new GM Brad Holmes has amassed future draft capital that should spark an about face. But the holes on this roster make you wonder if the win total will rival the amount of kneecaps bitten this season – especially with the September calendar serving up the 49ers, Packers and Ravens.

Expect to see a lot of projections with the Lions in the 3-5 win territory and a last-place finish in the coming weeks.

D’Andre Swift: Why holes in his rookie game tape hurt his production projections

Swift has strong potential at RB but has a few issues that cloud the projections

Lions fans have high hopes for second-year running back D’Andre Swift. But an in-depth review of Swift’s rookie year and athletic profile pours a little salt into the Honolulu blue Kool-Aid.

Matt Waldman of Football Guys wrote out a thorough breakdown of Swift and how he projects for Detroit in his second season. In his ongoing series The Gut Check, Waldman offers a measured, balanced breakdown of Swift through the lenses of both a fantasy football perspective and a draft evaluation/review sensibility.

Among Waldman’s points, some of which many Lions fans won’t necessarily want to hear but need to respect:

  • Swift lacks great acceleration
  • Very good at making defenders miss initially
  • He tried too hard to copy Adrian Peterson’s jump cut
  • Lapses in vision jump off his tape

Football Guys does this to evaluate fantasy prospects, and Waldman’s piece is designed to rationalize why Swift doesn’t belong as a top-15 fantasy football RB. Swift is currently RB No. 21 in average draft position in completed fantasy drafts this offseason.

I reached out to Waldman to see if he had any words for Lions fans who might get flustered by a projection that doesn’t include Swift near the top.

“There’s no doubt that Swift could emerge as a production leader for the Lions,” Waldman said. “Chiefs fans felt the same about Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Last year, I studied Edwards-Helaire and noted points about his game, the Kansas City scheme, and the surrounding talent that would keep him out of the top 10 in production at his position. When it comes to this high of a production bar, talent isn’t enough, especially when taking into account the scheme, personnel, and Swift’s 2020 film. At this point, there’s enough variability of outcome that I’d rather presume he’ll do good work but fall short of the top tier.”

Waldman did note in the article why it’s such a good idea to pair him with between-the-tackles pounder, Jamaal Williams. It’s certainly a worthwhile read from one of the most respected tape evaluators around.

T.J. Hockenson predicted as Lions MVP in 2021 by NFL.com

Hockenson gets the nod as the Lions MVP projection from NFL.com

There is no clear-cut choice for the best or most important player on the Detroit Lions roster entering 2021. It makes picking out who will become the team’s MVP a little more difficult than for some other squads.

One analyst, Dan Hanzus of NFL.com, projects third-year tight end T.J. Hockenson to run away with the Lions’ most valuable player nod in the coming season.

The explanation on why Hanzus chose Hockenson,

The former No. 8 overall pick made significant strides in Year 2, earning a Pro Bowl nod for his efforts. Hockenson has the ability to become one of the top playmaking tight ends in football if he can find chemistry with new QB Jared Goff. The 24-year-old authored an impressive close to Lions minicamp, and the unimpressive nature of Detroit’s wide receiver corps means Hockenson is set up to be a high-volume contributor in Dan Campbell’s offense. The Lions badly need core players to emerge in what figures to be a rebuilding year for the franchise. Hock fits the mold.

Considering the top talents on offense other than Hockenson are linemen Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker, and nobody really knows what to think yet of the new-look defense, it’s probably a safe bet to tab Hockenson for the MVP.

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Lions roster barely escapes being judged worst in the league by PFF

Detroit’s overhauled roster has a lot of major question marks entering 2021

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It’s a long way to the top for the Detroit Lions. The new-look Lions saw an exodus of talent this offseason, from longtime franchise QB Matthew Stafford to future Hall of Fame RB Adrian Peterson to the team’s top four wide receivers in 2020. And that’s not even getting to the 32nd-ranked defense in both points and yards allowed a year ago.

The Lions are starting from the NFL’s basement in 2021. They are just one step above the dirt floor that is the tumultuous Houston Texans in Pro Football Focus’s preseason roster rankings.

The graphic from PFF illustrates how far the Lions have to climb up from the ashes of the Bob Quinn/Matt Patricia era.

While it’s not broken down by position group, the radical overhaul in several areas of the roster (QB, WR, DL, RB, CB, K) reflects a Lions team that is at the very beginning of a major rebuild under new GM Brad Holmes. The massive change isn’t likely to achieve instant success, not even with a fresh coaching attitude under energetic new headman Dan Campbell.

PFF isn’t the only outlet that will project the Lions to be among the very worst teams in the NFL in 2021. Detroit sits in the 30-32 range in nearly every contemporary NFL power poll entering training camp season. It’s something long-suffering (and there is no other kind) Lions fans will need to get used to in the coming weeks.

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Watch: Lions schedule breakdown and reaction with Detroit Lions Podcast

A week-by-week projection and breakdown of the 2021 Detroit Lions schedule

The latest episode of the Detroit Lions Podcast featuring Lions Wire editor Jeff Risdon is now available. In this episode, the crew breaks down the Lions’ 2021 schedule week-by-week, with predictions and matchup analysis for all 17 games.

Among other topics:

  • The tearful rank Ragnow press conference and “reading the room”
  • The Los Angeles Rams’ ponderous draft strategy without Brad Holmes in their front office
  • How the Lions’ predicted finish impacts their 2022 NFL draft options
  • The media overkill of the NFL schedule release
  • Penei Sewell tests positive for COVID-19 and will miss this weekend’s rookie minicamp, and why it could be a lot worse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yy-jVeobbwc

Ep: 341 – Lions 2021 Schedule Reaction – Detroit Lions Podcast

Lions schedule predictions: Picking each game in 2021

Predicting each game on the Lions regular season schedule in 2021

With the 2021 schedule release and the considerable fanfare around learning the Detroit Lions slate of games, it’s now time for the “schedule game.”

Game by game, week by week, how will the first year of the Dan Campbell coaching era turn out for these Lions?

Here’s an early guess at the outcome for each of the team’s 17 games.

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