The Seahawks tend to take an old-school approach, with mixed results.
It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason is finally here. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.
These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.
In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Seahawks, who had to settle for the fifth seed in the NFC after a disappointing loss to the 49ers in Week 17. Let’s get to know them…
The Seahawks are known as a run-first team, but no team in the field plays as many pass-catchers. The Seahawks base out of three-receiver sets but will routinely go into four-receiver sets when they actually let Russell Wilson cook. Arizona was the only team that played more 10 personnel during the regular season.
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer gets a lot of criticism for his run-pass balance (and rightfully so) but he’s done a good job of working around Seattle’s offensive line, which isn’t very good. When the Seahawks want to take a shot downfield, they’ll call play-action –which slows down the pass rush — and get Wilson out of the pocket. In the drop-back passing game, Wilson will get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.
The Seahawks are running more man-blocking concepts than they were before Schottenheimer took over the offense, but this is still primarily a zone-blocking run game. There haven’t been a lot of explosive plays, but the run game has consistently kept the offense ahead of the chains. The Seahawks still run the ball too much, but at least they’ve done it from spread sets, which has boosted their efficiency.
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
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The Seahawks defense is a throwback … and that’s not necessarily a good thing. Pete Carroll, in an effort to get what he thinks are his best 11 players on the field at once, plays with base personnel (4 DL, 3 LB, 4 DB) more than any other team by a WIDE margin. No other team in the field plays base more than 26% of the time.
The Seahawks defense is essentially the one you grew accustomed to during the Legion of Boom era. Seattle is still playing a lot of zone coverages with a single safety in the deep middle. The Seahawks are blitzing at about a league-average rate, but when they do so, they’ll almost always play zone coverage behind the blitz. Seattle has rarely left its corners on their own with no safety help.
It hasn’t been a good year for Carroll’s defense. The midseason acquisition of safety Quadre Diggs has helped … some. But the Seahawks are playing too much base defense. While Jedeveon Clowney has consistently beaten his blocker it hasn’t turned into sacks and he isn’t getting any help from the rest of the rush.
When you have Drew Brees your offense doesn’t need to be that innovative.
It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason is finally here. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.
These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.
In this guide, we’ll be looking at the New Orleans Saints, who rolled to an NFC South title but just missed out on a bye with a 13-3 record. Let’s get to know them…
The Saints are one of the few teams that regularly use a fullback, but, at heart, this remains a one-back team. The Saints passing game is at its best with three receivers and a tight end on the field.
This is an old school passing game. The Saints will employ deep drops more than any team in the playoff field. Sean Payton can trust Drew Brees to do so because he gets the ball out so quickly. Despite those deeper drops, this isn’t exactly an explosive offense. Nor does it have to be thanks to Brees’ ridiculous precision. New Orleans does most of its damage on option routes. It’s typically Michael Thomas running those, but Jared Cook has also been involved. The screen game hasn’t been as effective as it’s been in the past — mostly due to the fact that Alvin Kamara has been banged up — but it’s still a significant part of the offense.
The Saints don’t have a terribly diverse running game. It’s mostly zone running plays — they’ll run both inside and outside zone — from under center. They’ll also run a lot of “Duo,” which is a man blocking play without a puller.
SAINTS DEFENSE
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Only four playoff teams play less base than the Saints do, who will use a lot of three-safety looks. Rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is typically that third safety playing closer to the line of scrimmage.
The Saints play a lot of man coverage and they typically do so out of single-high looks. They are not afraid to leave their corners one-on-one outside — especially not Marshon Lattimore, who will travel with the opponent’s No. 1 receiver if need be. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does a good job of mixing up his coverages and employing match concepts that get the deep safeties more involved. He isn’t afraid to dial up a designed pressure and may have to do so more often with Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins going down for the season.
Allen has done a masterful job of creating pressure. Outside of Cameron Jordan, the Saints don’t have any pass rushers who will really scare opposing offensive lines, but the pressure and sack numbers are still there. The strength of this defense is stopping the run, but that may be harder to do without Rankins and Davenport.
The Texans got by with an unimaginative offense and a cobbled-together defense.
It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason is finally here. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.
These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.
In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Houston Texans, who held off the Titans to win the AFC South with a 10-6 record. Let’s get to know them…
The Texans do not utilize a lot of personnel groupings, and it’s not hard to figure out what they’re trying to do based on the players out on the field. Bill O’Brien prefers to pass out of spread sets with three receivers, and when he wants to get the running and play-action games going, Houston will put an extra tight end on the field. The Texans are at their best when they can get DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller both on the field.
O’Brien has heard some criticism for his boring offensive schemes, and, based on Houston’s tendencies, it’s been warranted. The Texans do not do a whole lot in the passing game. They’ll go to empty sets when they want to get the ball out quickly. They use play-action when they want to push the ball downfield. But Houston does not use play-action enough nor does it get Deshaun Watson outside of the pocket (by design), which is where he’d be at his most dangerous. The screen game is non-existent. Despite the lack of variety, the Texans offense has been productive, even if it has been inconsistent.
O’Brien does deserve credit for working around a bad offensive line to create a good running game. Houston uses the threat of Watson’s mobility to even up numbers in the box. Running mostly out of shotgun formations has allowed them to do that. Watson doesn’t run often but he does enough to force defenses to account for him, which has opened up space for Carlos Hyde, who is enjoying a nice bounce-back season.
TEXANS DEFENSE
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As predictable as the Texans offense has been, the defense has been anything but. That’s been out of necessity. Houston’s defense has been hit hard with injuries and the secondary got a midseason makeover.
The Texans do have a bit of a tell in passing situations. When there are two safeties deep, you can bet defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has some sort of zone defense called. When there’s only one safety deep, it’s almost certainly a man coverage. The Texans have been undermanned in the secondary but that hasn’t stopped Crennel from dialing up a lot of creative pressures.
The numbers are really ugly. The Texans can’t get after opposing quarterbacks and the secondary has struggled to hold up in coverage. And as bad as the pass defense has been, the run defense hasn’t been much better. It’s been fine on a down-to-down basis, but Houston has given up too many explosive runs. The Texans are getting J.J. Watt back in time for the playoffs, but you have to wonder how many snaps he’ll be able to play after being sidelined for significant time.
New England’s defense has been great. The offense, though …
It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason is finally here. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.
These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.
In this guide, we’ll be looking at the New England Patriots, who had to settle for the third seed in the AFC playoffs after an uneven finish to the season. Let’s get to know them…
The Patriots have had to tinker with their personnel groupings all season after losing FB James Develin early on. They’ve played more spread out offensive sets after it became apparent that the ground-and-pound approach that worked last January wouldn’t be so effective this season.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Patriots offense look this bad. The results don’t reflect how inept the offense has been thanks to an easy schedule, but the passing game has been disjointed for the last three months of the season. New England’s air “attack” has essentially fractured into two units: One is a spread-it-out, quick passing game; the other is operates out of heavy personnel and leans on deep shots off play-action. Neither has been very effective as Tom Brady hasn’t been as precise as he was at the height of his powers.
Brady wasn’t exactly at the height of his powers last season either, but the Patriots had a running game they could lean on to score points and control the clock. That hasn’t been the case this season. The running game has been fine on a down-to-down basis, but big plays have been hard to come by. Develin’s absence has been felt as New England has had to employ more zone concepts in 2019.
PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Bill Belichick loves his defensive backs, so it’s not a surprise that he’s playing less base than almost the entire league. The secondary deep, and the front seven lacks athleticism, so Belichick has been smart to take that approach.
No team in the NFL plays more man coverage than the Patriots. Stephon Gilmore is the star and has been drawing the opponent’s best receiver every week. When in man coverage, the Patriots will typically keep one safety deep and ask the other to help out on receivers running crossing routes over the middle. New England will reserve zone coverages for obvious passing downs when it will play a lot of Cover 2. Or Belichick will just send the house with no safeties deep. That’s how much trust he has in his corners.
New England has been the best defense all season. The secondary has been key, but Belichick deserves a ton of credit for helping out an underwhelming group of pass rushers with his clever blitz designs. The Patriots coach values big defensive linemen who can hold up in the run game and has to sacrifice pass rush ability in order to keep those guys on the field. The results have justified the approach.
It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason is finally here. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.
These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.
In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Tennessee Titans, who claimed the last wild card spot in the AFC with a 9-7 record. Let’s get to know them…
The Titans will base out of 11 personnel for the most part, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis playing on the outside and Adam Humphries in the slot. Jonnu Smith is the tight end, and Tennessee will put one or two more tight ends on the field when they want to run the ball.
Since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback, the Titans have been one of the more play-action heavy teams in the league. When Tennessee wants to take a shot downfield, it’s almost always off of a play fake. Brown has been Tannehill’s favorite target on those plays. Smith, the tight end, has also emerged as a big-play threat, but he does a lot of his damage after the catch.
Derrick Henry finished the season as the NFL’s leading rusher. He’s known as a downhill runner, but the hulking back has actually done most of his damage on zone running plays. Tennessee’s ground game is mostly run under center, which is how offensive coordinator Arthur Smith likes to run his zone-blocking schemes. That allows Henry to build up momentum before he approaches the line of scrimmage.
TITANS DEFENSE
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Defensive coordinator Dean Pees loves him some defensive backs. The Titans rarely play with more than two linebackers on the field. Former first-round pick Kenny Vaccaro is the third safety on the field when Tennessee plays its sub-packages, but he’s basically a linebacker these days. He’ll play alongside stud LB Rashaan Evans in obvious pass situations. The Titans corner depth has been tested over the second half of the season after Malcolm Butler was put on IR in November and Adoree Jackson missed the last four games. Jackson was back at practice before this week, however. He’ll likely take Tye Smith’s spot in the starting lineup.
The Titans aren’t big on blitzing, but Pees is liable to send pass rushers from anywhere on the field. His “creeper” pressures have given offensive lines fits on third downs. For the most part, the Titans will play zone, but when they do play man, it will almost always be with one safety — superstar Kevin Byard — playing the deep middle and helping to protect the seams.
Even with the defensive backfield getting hit hard with injuries in the second half, the backend of the Titans defense has held up just fine. It’s the pass rush, which has struggled to get home without the aid of Pees. Despite that, the secondary has not given up too many big plays. The front may not put a lot of pressure on opposing passers but it has been stout against the run.
The Bills are led by Sean McDermott’s defense and an offense built to hide Josh Allen’s weaknesses.
It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.
These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.
In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Buffalo Bills, who cruised to the top wild-card spot in the AFC with a 10-6 record. Let’s get to know them…
BILLS OFFENSE
(Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
While offensive coordinator Brian Daboll can throw a bunch of different personnel combinations at an opponent, the Bills have typically stayed in their one-back, three-receiver sets over the second half of the season. That helps spread things out for Josh Allen and create space in the running game. In the passing game, John Brown is the main threat. He has no problem getting open deep but hasn’t had the best connection with Allen on those deeper throws. Cole Beasley has been Allen’s security blanket all season.
Allen is known for his big arm, but the Bills offense has leaned more on the quick passing game to help the second-year quarterback. He’s not taking a lot of deeper drops, and when he does, he typically attacks the intermediate areas, where’s he’s been at his best all season. Allen’s short accuracy hasn’t been ideal, but that hasn’t stopped Buffalo from utilizing a lot of RPO concepts. If this passing game is going to do damage in the playoffs, it will need a bigger threat on the outside. That could be Duke Williams, who played well in Week 17 but wasn’t on the field a whole lot before then.
The Bills boast an average run game, but they certainly have big-play potential now that Devin Singletary has taken over the starting running back job. Buffalo is primarily an under-center run team, but they’ll also go into the gun and get Josh Allen involved.
BILLS DEFENSE
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
The Bills have a stacked secondary and rangy linebackers, so it’s not a surprise that they spend almost all of their time in nickel personnel. They are the one team in the field that hasn’t played with six or more defensive backs on any play during the 2019 season.
This is your typical Sean McDermott defense. The Bills play a lot of zone coverages and do a good job of switching up those looks to prevent the defense from picking up any tells. The same cannot be said about Buffalo’s man coverages, which are typically played with one safety deep and the other lurking over the middle. In Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, they have a pair of versatile safeties capable of executing any concept McDermott wants to dial up. The same can be said about CB Tre’ White.
The secondary, unsurprisingly, has been the rock of the defense all season long. There have been highs and lows for the defensive front. The linebackers aren’t consistently stout against the run, and the defensive line has gone through periods where they haven’t been able to put pressure on the pocket. But as long as the secondary is intact, the Bills defense will be formidable.
The Vikings have built the perfect offense for Kirk Cousins and Mike Zimmer has found some tricks on defense.
It’s been a long NFL season, but the postseason. Now, you probably didn’t get to study the entire playoff field in-depth during the regular season. No worries. We’ve put together guides that will help you become an instant expert on all 12 teams making up the field.
These guides will tell you how each team uses its personnel on both sides of the ball, what its strategic tendencies are and how efficient the team is based on several advanced metrics.
In this guide, we’ll be looking at the Minnesota Vikings, who had to settle for the sixth and final seed in the NFC with a 10-6 record. Let’s get to know them…
VIKINGS OFFENSE
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No team uses fewer three-receiver sets than the Vikings, which makes a lot of sense because there isn’t a ton of receiving talent behind Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen. And Minnesota has two good tight ends in Kyle Rudolph and rookie Irv Smith Jr. plus a good fullback in C.J. Ham.
Gary Kubiak is technically just an advisor on the Vikings staff but his fingerprints are all over this offense. Just look at that play-action rollout number! Classic Kubiak. The dropback passing game isn’t terribly inventive but it’s the play-action game that has carried this passing attack all season. Minnesota also has a deadly screen game off of those play fakes. After a slow start to the season, offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski found his footing and helped design an offense that perfectly suits Kirk Cousins.
The Vikings are running the classic Shanahan/Kubiak run game. It’s all from under center — no other team in the playoff field is running from shotgun less often — and it’s almost all outside zone. The offensive line may not be the best in pass protection but it has been excellent in the ground game. But for the running game to be at its best, Dalvin Cook needs to get healthy.
VIKINGS DEFENSE
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Mike Zimmer will almost always match whatever personnel the offense puts out on the field. If it’s only two receivers, he’ll play base. If it’s three or more receivers, he’ll go to his sub packages. No matter what package the Vikings are in, the stars of the defense — LB Eric Kendricks and safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris — will be out on the field.
We’ve seen a philosophical shift from this Vikings defense over the last year-and-a-half. Zimmer is playing more four-deep coverages which allow him to guard against passes down the seams. Minnesota is now a quarters team but when they want to play man, they’ll do so with only one safety deep for the most part. Zimmer is known for his double A-gap blitzes but he didn’t show those looks as often in 2019.
With Minnesota backing off in coverage, they have been vulnerable to dinking and dunking — but that’s by design. Zimmer dares offenses to patiently move the ball down the field, waiting for one slip up that ruins a drive. As a result, Minnesota hasn’t allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game. As a whole, the Vikings defense has done a good job of limiting big plays.
More so than other NFL season, there seems to be a clear line between the real contenders and the rest of the field.
It’s finally over. After 17 long weeks, very few of which actually made any sense, we’re finally getting to the main event. The NFL playoffs are here.
The NFL is known for its parity, but more so than other seasons, this year, it feels like there’s a clear line between the teams that are actually capable of winning the Super Bowl and those that are just along for the ride.
So that’s how we’ve structured these power rankings. Up first, we’ll take a deeper look at the four teams that have what it takes to lift the Lombardi Trophy a month from now. Then we’ll sort out the rest.
It’s crazy how much the perception of the Ravens has evolved since the offseason. After an exodus of defensive veterans, it was assumed this would be a year of transition for the defense. And the same could be said for an offense that would have to shift its identity for the first full season of Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback.
The transition didn’t take long. From the jump, the offense bulldozed opposing defenses. Greg Roman designed an exquisite scheme for his young quarterback, who has been the engine for this option-based rushing attack that is arguably the best we’ve ever seen. As if the Ravens’ perfectly executed exchanges at the mesh point didn’t give defenders enough trouble, Roman’s league-leading use of pre-snap motion further complicated things for overwhelmed opponents just trying to line up in the right run gap. And even when defenses did manage to get everyone aligned properly, they still had to tackle Jackson, which proved to be an impossible task.
Now throw a heavy dose of play-action passes designed off the complex run game, and defenses didn’t stand a chance — especially with Jackson making great strides as a pocket passer. Even when defenses somehow did manage to get the Ravens to fourth down, John Harbaugh would just fo for it anyway. Getting this offense off the field hasn’t been easy.
Early in the season, though, the defense wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain. Those offseason concerns about the defense appeared to be warranted, as the pass rush struggled to get pressure on opposing passers and the secondary couldn’t stop blowing coverages. Defensive coordinator Don Martindale eventually adjusted. The Ravens started blitzing more — A LOT more — and played Earl Thomas closer to the line, where he could be more disruptive as a pass defender. A midseason trade for Marcus Peters helped to shore up the cornerback group. And with Martindale’s aggressive blitzes getting home and the coverage improved, it wasn’t long before Baltimore’s defense was keeping pace with its offense.
As we head into the playoffs, the Ravens arguably have both the league’s best offense and defense. Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric has them pegged as one of the best teams of the last 35 years.
If there is one team that can challenge the Ravens, it’s this one. In fact, the Chiefs are the only team in the playoff field with a win over Baltimore this season. But that came at the beginning of the season when the Ravens defense hadn’t found its footing yet.
But the same could be said about the Chiefs offense. It’s been an uneven season for the league’s most explosive offense — especially in the red zone — but Kansas City is getting healthy at just the right time. The passing game is still explosive as ever, and it will have to be if the Chiefs stand a chance at beating the Ravens.
I may have been more optimistic about the defense before rookie safety Juan Thornhill left the win over the Chargers with a knee injury that will force him to miss the playoffs. Thornhill, along with Tyrann Mathieu and new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, helped turn around what had been one of the league’s worst pass defenses a season ago. With those improvements, the Chiefs defense was no longer the crippling weakness it was a season ago.
But with Thornhill out, the match coverages Spagnuolo installed might be more difficult to execute. That remains to be seen. What we already know is that this Kansas City run defense remains awful, which will be a problem with Baltimore likely standing in the way of a Super Bowl berth.
My view on the 49ers has pretty much remained the same since September. This team is capable of beating any team in the league — as evidenced by the road win in New Orleans and the narrow loss in Baltimore — but I’m still wary of Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan’s game management.
Garoppolo is undoubtedly a talented thrower — especially when his first read is open — but when the picture isn’t clear, his decision-making and accuracy take a hit. Shanahan’s finely-choreographed offense obviously helps in that regard; I just wonder what will happen if the 49ers run into a defensive coach capable of putting together a gameplan that rivals whatever Shanahan cooks up. If an opposing team can force Garoppolo to go beyond his first option more often than not, this offense could sputter.
As for Shanahan’s game management, this becomes a much larger issue in the playoffs when teams are evenly matched and the margins are slimmer. Clock management has been an issue for him throughout his time as the 49ers coach and he’s still too conservative when it comes to fourth-down decisions and run-pass balance. A decision to punt the ball on fourth-and-1 against the Seahawks on Sunday night nearly cost his team the NFC West.
Kyle Shanahan's decision to punt on 4th-and-1 from the 49ers' 30-yard line with 2:34 left cost SF just over two percentage points of win probability, per ESPN's model.
The 49ers had an 81.9% chance to win by punting and would have had an 84% chance to win by going for it.
Shanahan needs to be a bit bolder if the 49ers are going to win it all.
With all of that said, the 49ers have to be considered the favorites to win the NFC. Shanahan is the best offensive play-caller in the league right now, the road to the Super Bowl goes through San Francisco Santa Clara, the defense has taken a step back but could be getting healthy just in time for the playoffs and the first-round bye gives them a distinct advantage over the other real contender in the conference…
As crazy as it sounds, the biggest concern for the Saints headed into the postseason might be Drew Brees. Don’t get me wrong: Brees is still absurdly efficient but there’s no denying that this New Orleans passing game lacks a downfield element and has lacked it for over a year now. With a trip to Lambeau looming, Brees’ play outside of the comfort of a dome is also troubling. The 40-year-old quarterback could look 45 if we get some classic Green Bay weather two weeks from now.
Alvin Kamara’s unconvincing return from a high ankle sprain is another concern. He found the end zone twice in the Week 17 win over Carolina, but he hasn’t looked like the same explosive runner we had grown accustomed to over the past two years. His yards-after-contact and evaded tackle numbers are way down, and Sean Payton has had to adjust the way he’s used Kamara as a receiver. Maybe the second-half emergence of Jared Cook, along with Michael Thomas’ reliable brilliance, will be enough to offset what they’ve lost from Kamara, but I don’t know if that will be the case if Brees isn’t playing at a high level.
At one point in the season, it was the Saints defense that was carrying the team. Dennis Allen’s forward-thinking defensive scheme, which prioritized pass defense by defending the run with as few numbers as possible, was much easier to pull off before the massive injuries to Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins. Without those two monsters on the line, New Orleans has had a more difficult time defending the run without committing an extra guy in the box. Obviously losing their pass rush contributions was a big blow, as well. This defense is still solid from front to back. It’s just not nearly as impressive as it was a month ago.
On paper, the Saints still look like the most balanced team in the NFC, but they’ll have to go through Green Bay and San Francisco on the road to make a run to the Super Bowl … and do it without the benefit of a bye.
It feels like blasphemy to exclude the Patriots from the group of real contenders, but they haven’t given me any reason to put them in it. The offense is a drag to watch, the defense is good but no defense is reliable week in and week out (as we saw in Week 17), and now the Pats have to win three consecutive games, including two possible road games against the Ravens and Chiefs, just to make it to the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick is the best coach in the playoff field, but there’s only so much he can do with this roster. Unless Tom Brady somehow turns back the clock and rediscovers his fastball (and precision, for that matter) New England’s streak of AFC title game appearances is going to end.
We were one Seahawks touchdown away from the Packers winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. I still can’t wrap my head around that. What does this team do well? It isn’t great at passing the ball, and the defense is prone to long stretches of ineptitude. The only hope is Aaron Rodgers going Super Saiyan and playing like the elite quarterback he used to be. Yes, you read that right. Rodgers has missed too many throws and is coming off arguably his worst performance of the season in Week 17. He isn’t what he used to be. At least not consistently. And if Rodgers isn’t performing at an elite level, I don’t think it’s too hot of a take to say that Green Bay might be the worst 13-3 team in NFL history. The numbers back it up.
Props to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have to be the team nobody in the NFC wants to face.
Green Bay is the 49th team to go 13-3, but the only team clutch enough to do so while outscoring their opponents by less than 4 points per game. pic.twitter.com/yCNfKlbakE
If you were just looking at the Vikings’ efficiency numbers, you might be able to talk yourself into them being Super Bowl sleepers. Good luck with that. I’m not falling into the trap. These are the Vikings we’re talking about, after all. They will find some excruciating way to lose. I don’t think their fans are expecting anything less than a soul-crushing end to this season. We’ve also got Kirk Cousins in a high-pressure situation here. Earlier in the season, it looked like Cousins was ready to exercise those “clutch” demons and then he laid an egg in the NFC North decider against the Packers in Week 16. Same old Kirk. I also don’t trust Mike Zimmer to properly manage a game in crunch time.
The Seahawks are lucky to be in the playoffs. They enter the postseason with the worst point-differential of any NFC team. Yes, even the Eagles, who only managed to win nine games, have them beat in that category. In fact, three NFC teams that didn’t make the playoffs — the Rams, Buccaneers and Cowboys — had a better point differential than Seattle this year. So why aren’t they lower on the list? Well, Russell Wilson exists, and as long as that’s the case, the Seahawks will be in any game.
I’m not going to pretend like I know what to make of this Titans team. Ryan Tannehill is probably little more than an above-average quarterback, as he’s been for his entire career. Or maybe he’s the best quarterback in the league, as the stats indicate. I’d say it’s probably somewhere in the middle, but a matchup with the Patriots defense will, in all likelihood, make him look worse than that. I’m more concerned with the other side of the ball, however. Houston is the only playoff team with a worse pass defense according to DVOA. And if the Patriots can pass the ball effectively, the Titans won’t stand a chance on the road in New England.
The Texans are capable of beating any team on this list. Unfortunately, they’re also capable of losing to any team on this list, and it’s been a while since we’ve seen the good version of the Texans. I just can’t get the Broncos game out of my mind. As good as Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins are, the offense has been inconsistent and any slip-up by the offense will likely end Houston’s season because that defense is baaaaaaad.
The Bills may very well be the best-coached team in the field outside of New England. And after a brief midseason lull, Sean McDermott has the defense playing at an elite level again. Two problems, though: Buffalo will be stuck playing on the road throughout the playoffs and the passing game, led by the inconsistent Josh Allen, is statistically the worst in the field. That’s a lot to overcome for a team with very little playoff experience. The Bills are capable of springing an upset of Houston but that’s this team’s ceiling.
On paper, the Eagles are a lot better than this ranking. But how do you look at this active roster and have any confidence in it beating a good football team? The pass defense is unreliable, and with Russell Wilson coming to town, that could cause some problems. If Philly falls behind early, it’s hard to see them pulling off a comeback throwing to Greg Ward and a bunch of other receivers you’ve never heard of.
