Tag: 2020 NFL Offseason

Ranking the 50 best 2020 NFL free agents by value

Building a great NFL team is all about paying the right price for the right talent.

Welcome to yet another ranking of the top NFL free agents available this offseason. This one is probably a bit different from the others you have read, as it’s not based entirely on the skill of the players. The expected contract values (we’ve used OverTheCap.com‘s projections, via Pro Football Focus, to figure those out) are a big factor.

In a league with a hard salary cap, finding good value is nearly as important as finding talented players. I’ll use an example from last offseason: Trey Flowers was seen as a better player than Justin Houston, but the former cost Detroit $90 million ($56 million guaranteed) while Indianapolis spent $24 million ($18.5 million guaranteed) on the latter. That’s a big reason why we had Houston ranked as the third-best free agent available in last year’s version of these rankings, while Flowers didn’t crack our top-20. And guess what? Houston ended up having the better season.

So that’s how these rankings were put together. With that out of the way, let’s rank some free agents…

The 25 best values available

1. Dak Prescott, QB (age: 26)

Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $165 million

If Jerry Jones lets Prescott get to free agency, it will be the biggest mistake of his time as Cowboys owner. The payout will be monstrous, but Dak is a quarterback with few weaknesses who is capable of carrying a franchise for the next decade. It’s hard to overpay for a guy like that.

2. Philip Rivers, QB (age: 38)

Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $58 million

The perception of what Rivers is as this point of his career is way off. Sure, he basically has no arm strength left, but he’s still one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the league and can still make plays down the field — provided they are not too far downfield.

I have him ahead of Brady on this list for two reasons: (1) He’s more accurate than the six-time Super Bowl champ, and (2) he’ll cost his new team a lot less money than Brady will.

(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

3. Tom Brady, QB (age: 42)

Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $60 million

Brady still has plenty of ability, but he’s not as precise as he once was, and his age is really starting to show up on film. One area where he’s clearly declined: Throwing on the move. Not too long ago, Brady was one of the league’s best quarterbacks at navigating the pocket and making throws with bodies around him. That combined with his precision allowed him to elevate his supporting cast. I don’t know if that’s the case anymore but he’s going to command that type of money.

4. A.J. Green, WR (age: 31)

Over the Cap projection: 3 years, $50 million

The last time we saw Green, he was still playing at an elite level. Of course, that was a season and a significant injury ago, but Green got word from Dr. Robert Anderson that the ankle injury that kept him out all of last year should have no lingering effect on his career. When healthy, Green is a true No. 1 receiver who will earn targets all over the field. The Bengals would be wise to keep him around to help aid Joe Burrow’s transition into the NFL.

5. Amari Cooper, WR (age: 25)

Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $100 million

Cooper is the most promising receiving available this offseason but the cost will be steep. While he is one of the better receivers in the league, I don’t think he’s quite in that elite class, and his short-term ceiling might be lower than Green’s if the 32-year-old does, in fact, make it back to full health.

6. Devin McCourty, S (age: 32)

Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $20 million

The long-time Patriots safety isn’t widely viewed as the top safety available this offseason, but there isn’t one I’d be more comfortable paying. Justin Simmons is a close second but figures to sign a much bigger deal. McCourty is a reliable center fielder who can drop into the box and play man coverage.

7. Andrew Whitworth, LT (age: 38)

Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $11 million

The 2019 season did not go as planned for Whitworth but he’s still a very good blindside protector who won’t harm a team’s salary cap situation. Penalties were up for the veteran last season but his pressure and sack numbers remained near the top of the league. Any tackle-needy team ready to compete for a playoff spot should give Whitworth a look.

8. Justin Simmons, S (age: 26)

Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $57 million

Of the young safeties available in free agency, Simmons is my favorite. He’s a good athlete whose instincts show up on film. He can drop deep or cover slot receivers. Anthony Harris is viewed as the top safety available but Simmons is a far more active player. The Broncos should slap him with the franchise tag and try to work out a long-term deal.

9. Chris Jones, DT (age: 25)

Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $72 million

I’d typically advise against paying a defensive tackle the kind of money Jones will likely get, but he’s a rare one who can dominate a game — as we saw in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory. Jones was arguably the best player on the field that night.

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

10. Jameis Winston, QB (age: 26)

Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $27 million

I’ve written at length about why I’d take a long-term bet on the talented Bucs quarterback. You can read my extended thoughts here. A short summary: Outside of the interceptions, Winston is one of the league’s most productive quarterbacks and it’s unlikely that his poor interception luck will continue. He’s never going to be a single-digit interception guy, but he should be able to cut his interception total in half without sacrificing his big-play ability. Perhaps he was just a LASIK surgery away from reaching his full potential.

11. Cory Littleton, LB (age: 26)

Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $48 million

The Rams’ poor cap management will catch up to them this offseason, and losing Littleton will be the most impactful loss. He’s been one of the best linebackers in the NFL over the last two seasons thanks to his rare coverage ability and play-making range. Every team can use a scheme-diverse player like that in the middle of their defense.

12. Anthony Castonzo, LT (age: 31)

Over the Cap projection: 3 years, $39 million

Sturdy left tackles like Castonzo don’t often make it to free agency, and I doubt it will happen this offseason, as the Colts have enough cap space to tag him if they can’t work out a long-term deal with the 31-year-old. Castonzo is a reliable run-blocker but his work in pass protection makes him so valuable.

13. Hunter Henry, TE (age: 25)

Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $10 million

Henry has the talent to be one of the league’s best tight ends, but injuries and inconsistency at the catch point have prevented him from getting to that level. He’s an OK run blocker and route runner, and while his big frame and athleticism make him a threat in the red zone, he does let a lot of 50/50 balls get away from him. If Henry gets to the open market, he’ll be paid like a top-tier tight end, but he’s just a cut below that at this point in his career.

14. Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE (age: 27)

Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $105 million

Box score watchers may not appreciate Clowney’s game, but he’s established himself as one of the league’s dominant edge defenders. Despite seeing a high number of double teams during the 2019 season, Clowney still managed to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, finishing seventh in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric. So why is Clowney so low on this list? Well, the rest of the NFL knows how good he is, and the bidding way will inflate his contract value.

(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

15. Byron Jones, CB (age: 27)

Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $80 million

With Dallas needing to pay Dak and Amari, Jones could be the odd man out. But don’t feel too sorry for him. If that happens, Jones will be considered the top cornerback on the market and should fetch a deal that makes him one of the richest defensive backs in NFL history. I’m not sure if he’s capable of living up to such a deal. Jones is a decent man corner but not one who’s going to shadow a top receiver. He’s a good No. 1 and a top-end No. 2.

16. Teddy Bridgewater, QB (age: 27)

Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $18 million

I’m just going to choose to ignore that report saying that Bridgewater could command up to $30 million a year (it’s that time of the year) because if that were actually the case, he’d be a lot lower on this list. Based on the last few weeks of his tryout as the Saints starter, Bridgewater looks like a league-average starting QB who could produce like an above-average one with the right pieces around him. If a team can get that kind of production for around $20 million a season, it’s a win.

17. Ryan Tannehill, QB (age: 31)

Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $25 million

I’d put Tannehill in the same boat as Bridgewater, but with the former enjoying a longer run of success in 2019, he could (and should) command more money. If I had to pick between the two, I’d pick the cheaper option. Tannehill’s advanced metrics were among the best in the league in 2019, but a lot of that could just be noise. He was unusually efficient on play-action and pressured dropbacks, which tend to be volatile year-to-year. It’s unlikely that Tannehill will once again perform like a top-five — or even top-10 –quarterback, but “league-average” starter is doable.

18. Shaquil Barrett, EDGE (age: 27)

Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $66 million

I can say one thing about Barrett’s breakout season: It wasn’t a fluke. Now, I don’t think he’s going to rack up 19.5 sacks again, but the pressure numbers he’s put up in the past while playing in a reserve role suggest he’s more than a one-year wonder. Barrett isn’t a dominant edge rusher by any means, but with his athleticism and a relentless motor, he will hover around the 10-sack mark for years to come. I don’t know if that kind of production is worth the money he’ll get this offseason, but there are worse ways for teams to spend their cap dollars.

19. Breshad Perriman, WR (age: 26)

Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $7 million

In terms of receiving talent, Perriman isn’t in the top-five of this free-agent class, but he’s going to be cheap and he has a skill set that a lot of teams could use in their receiving corps. During his time in Tampa, Perriman proved he can be a dangerous deep threat, but he also showed his chops as a potential No. 1 target during the absence of Mike Evans late in the season. Perriman has that kind of ability; there’s a reason he was drafted in the first round. He’s a better route-runner than he gets credit for, and it appears he’s gotten over the injury issues that sabotaged his early career.

20. James Bradberry, CB (age: 26)

Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $68 million

Bradberry’s numbers don’t do him justice. That’s just what happens when you play in the same division as Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and Mike Evans. And Carolina asked him to shadow those guys during those games, which led to some ugly highlights. But Bradberry is a smart zone corner who can play sticky man coverage against lesser receivers. He’s not a No. 1 corner, but he can be a high-end No. 2.

Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports

21. Emmanuel Sanders, WR (age: 32)

Over the Cap projection: 3 years, $30 million

Sanders is on the wrong side of 30 and he’s no longer a receiver that’s going to scare defenses down the field, but he still knows how to get open and move the chains. For a team that’s lacking a third-down security blanket for its quarterback (and doesn’t have a ton of cash to spend), Sanders is an ideal target.

22. D.J. Reader, DT (age: 25)

Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $54 million

Had Reader hit the market two years ago, he would have been much lower on this list. But the run-stuffing behemoth has steadily improved as a pass rusher to the point where the Texans could keep him on the field on third downs. Reader is going to get paid, but if he continues on his current track, the contract he gets this offseason could look like a steal a year from now.

23. Joe Thuney, G (age: 27)

Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $68 million

Thuney was one of the few bright spots on a Patriots offensive line that took a major step back in 2019 after serving as the engine for the team’s Super Bowl run the previous season. He’s a solid pass protector and a good run blocker. Thuney’s not going to transform an offensive line, but he will improve it.

24. Robby Anderson, WR (age: 26)

Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $53 million

I love Anderson’s game. He’s one of the fastest receivers in the league and he knows how to track a deep ball. But he’s not a versatile route-runner and his small frame limits his ceiling. He’s more of a complementary No. 2 than a guy capable of carrying a receiving corps. And that’s fine! But projections from Spotrac and Over the Cap suggest Anderson could bring in an average salary ranging from $12 million to $16 million a season. That’s a bit much for a complementary piece.

25. Brandon Scherff, G (age: 28)

Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $70 million

If not for injuries, Scherff would be a lot higher on this list. He’s going to get paid like one of the top guards in football this offseason. He’s that good, but he’s also missed 13 games over the past two seasons, so whichever team forks over that money will be taking a huge risk.

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The best of the rest

26. Jack Conklin, T (age: 25)

Conklin is headed for a big payday but he’s a better run blocker than pass blocker, and the latter is more important in today’s NFL.

27. Chris Harris Jr. (age: 30)

Not too long ago, Harris was one of the best cover guys in the league. That’s no longer the case, but moving back to the slot full-time could rejuvenate his career.

28. Tre Boston, S (age: 27)
29. Anthony Harris, S (age: 28)

I don’t get the fascination with Harris, whom Pro Football Focus graded as the NFL’s best safety over the past two seasons. He’s fast and has good ball skills, but he rarely makes plays that aren’t right in front of him and isn’t at all interested in tackling. There isn’t much of a difference between Harris and Boston, and the latter seemingly has to wait until training camp to get signed every season. If I’m a team looking for a free safety this offseason, I’d take Boston, who won’t cost nearly as much.

30. Robert Quinn, DE (age: 30)

It seems like Quinn has been in the league forever, but he’s still only 30 and coming off an 11.5-sack season that was backed by impressive advanced metrics.

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

31. Arik Armstead, DE (age: 26)

Landing back in San Francisco, where he has a clearly defined role that suits him perfectly, would be best for the big defensive end, who is more of an edge setter than a dominant pass rusher.

32. Jimmie Ward, S (age: 28)

Ward is a jack of all trades but a master of none. He’s an OK free safety and slot corner, but don’t expect him to change games from either of those spots. Still, his versatility will be valued.

33. Austin Hooper, TE (age: 25)

Hooper has put up some impressive numbers in Atlanta — which has earned him two Pro Bowl nods — but he’s a scheme-reliant tight end who is better at finding holes in zone coverage than he is beating the man across from him.

34. Jason Peters, T (age: 38)

Age and injury are the two major concerns, but when the future hall-of-famer is on the field, he can shut down even the best pass rushers.

35. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S (age: 27)

Clinton-Dix never quite lived up to the pre-draft hype, but he’s proven to be a league-average safety who can make some plays … while also giving up some big ones in the process.

36. Joe Schobert, LB (age: 28)

Two decades ago, Schobert may have been playing safety. He’s a useless run defender but his coverage skills make him a valuable linebacker in a pass-happy league.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

37. Yannick Ngakoue, DE (age: 24)

I don’t know how to feel about Ngakoue. He’s a good pass rusher, for sure, but he’s going to demand top tier money and he’s not quite at that level. While Ngakoue will be productive over the course of his new contract, it’s almost a certainty that he’ll be overpaid.

38. Javon Hargrave, DL (age: 27)

Hargrave has improved just enough as a pass rusher to make himself a valuable commodity. He’s still a run-stuffer, first and foremost, but he can also provide some early-down pressure and won’t cost his new team too much cap space.

39. Brian Bulaga, T (age: 30)

The Packers will probably end up tagging Bulaga, who was a key player on one of the best lines in football. He’s a solid pass protector who will get a ton of money if he hits the open market.

40. Matthew Judon, EDGE (age: 27)

Judon gave the Ravens the breakout season they desperately needed from him, but a lot of his production was the result of Don Martindale’s blitz-happy scheme, which provided Judon with winnable matchups.

41. Kyle Van Noy, EDGE (age: 29)

I love Van Noy’s game, but I’m not sure how valuable it is to most teams in the NFL. If he doesn’t land with a team like New England or Baltimore, he’s not going to live up to the contract he’s likely to get this offseason.

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

42. Eric Ebron, TE (age: 26)

We pretty much know what Ebron is at this point in his career: He’s basically another receiver with good physical ability but a suspect pair of hands. At the right price, he could be an asset.

43. Micheal Bennett, DE (age: 34)

Even at this stage in his career, Bennett remains a productive player as both a pass rusher and run defender. He’s not the dominant edge-rusher he once was but he’s also much cheaper now.

44. Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE (age: 25)

I put Fowler in the same bucket as Ngakoue, only he’s not quite the pass rusher his former teammate has. become He’s going to put up good numbers but a team is going to pay him too much money to do so.

45. Shelby Harris, DL (age: 28)

Harris created more havoc as a reserve pass-rusher before taking on a bigger role for the Broncos in 2019. While he wasn’t quite as productive, he still proved to be a solid presence inside. Harris is a good, cheap option for teams lacking depth on the defensive line.

46. Graham Glasgow, G (age: 27)

Glasgow is still in his prime, he’s a good run blocker and he isn’t liability as a pass protector. In other words, he’s going to get paid a lot.

47. Bud Dupree, EDGE (age: 27)

Beware of the big contract year! More importantly, Dupree’s big sack total in 2019 is suspect as his advanced pressure numbers do not paint an encouraging picture. Dupree will be looking to cash in; smarter teams will stay away, but it only takes one.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

48. Leonard Williams, DT (age: 25)

A trade to the Giants led to more production for the 2016 sixth-overall pick, but Williams isn’t the pass rusher we all expected him to be coming out of college. He’s a serviceable starting tackle and not much more.

49. Brian Poole, CB (age: 27)

Poole is not your typical slot corner. He’s not particularly fast or agile. But he’s a smart player who will contribute in a zone-heavy scheme.

50. Derrick Henry, RB (age: 25)

Henry is quite possibly the most dominant runner in the league. One problem: Running backs don’t matter. Another problem: There is a lot of miles on those tires.

Other notable free agents (listed in alphabetical order):

Blake Martinez, LB; Bradley Roby, Connor McGovern, C; CB; Damarious Randall, S; Danny Amendola, WR; Eli Apple, CB; Gerald McCoy, DT; Jamie Collins, LB; Jarran Reed, DT; Jordan Howard, RB; Josh Norman, CB; Karl Joseph, S; Logan Ryan, CB; Marcus Mariota, QB; Melvin Gordon, RB; Michael Brockers, DL; Michael Pierce, DT; Mike Daniels, DL; Ndamukong Suh, DT; Nelson Agholor, WR; Ronald Darby, CB; Shaq Lawson, EDGE; Tony Jefferson, S; Trae Waynes, CB; Vonn Bell, S

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10 NFL stars who could be traded this offseason

Patrick Peterson’s days in Arizona are likely numbered.

The NFL offseason is barely weeks old and we already have our real drama of the offseason: Star wideout Stefon Diggs deleted anything related to the Vikings from his social media, With rumors that he wanted a trade already making the rounds on Twitter, that was enough to turn NFL Twitter into that GIF of Michael Scott saying “Oh my God, it’s happening.”

I don’t actually think it will happen. Unless Minnesota gets wowed with offers, it doesn’t make much sense for the team to move on from its best receiver. Diggs has a team-friendly contract going forward and trading it would leave the team with a $9 million cap charge while saving only $5.5 million in the process. There’s not a lot in it for the Vikings.

A Diggs trade may be unlikely, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing other NFL stars on the move. In fact, the opposite might be true. There are plenty of big-name players who could (and probably should) be dealt over the next month or two. I’ve picked out 10…

Stars who could be on the move this offseason

1. Patrick Peterson, CB Cardinals

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I’d actually be shocked if the Cardinals don’t shop Peterson around. The veteran corner has demanded to be moved in the past before walking the demands back; but now, it’s actually in the team’s best interest to move on. Peterson is 32, missed the first half of the 2019 season after flunking a PED test and then played poorly after returning.

He’s also entering the final year of his contract and it’s unlikely that a rebuilding team will want to commit long-term money to a player who is clearly past his prime. Arizona may have to pay some of Peterson’s 2020 salary if it’s going to be able to make a deal. I’m not sure how many teams are willing to give up a draft pick and pay Peterson over $12 million for what will likely be a one-year rental.

2. Todd Gurley, RB Rams

(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

If the Rams weren’t so desperate for cap space, trading Gurley would make little sense from a financial standpoint. Such a move would cost the team $12.6 million in dead money while only saving $4.65 million in 2020 cap space.

But here we are.

Los Angeles needs money to re-sign Jalen Ramsey and Cory Littleton while also figuring out a way to rebuild the offensive line without a first-round pick. Restructuring Jared Goff’s deal would free up a good chunk of cap space but trading Gurley should still be an option the front office explores.

It may prove difficult to find a willing trade partner with the 27-year-old running back (who may have an arthritic knee) coming off a down season. But the team that trades for him would be getting him a decent price. After two seasons, Gurley’s contract would essentially become a pay-as-you-go deal with a cap charge of about $9 million per season. That’s still an overpay for a running back, but not an egregious one if Gurley can get back to his 2018 form.

3. Cam Newton, QB Panthers

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

We’re about to find out how owner David Tepper feels about this roster. If he’s looking to blow things up, trading the best quarterback in the history of the franchise makes some sense. If not, and Tepper feels like this team can compete for a playoff spot in 2020, I don’t see how the Panthers will find a better option at a reasonable price of $21.1 million.

That’s Newton’s cap hit for the 2020 season, and Carolina can save $19.1 million of that if they deal him. It’s in the team’s best interest to at least gauge the league’s interest in Newton, who is coming of a second consecutive season that was cut short due to injury.

But Tepper’s recent comments about Newton won’t make it very easy to trade him. The Panthers owner basically said the team will first figure out if he’s healthy before deciding on his future. So if Carolina does openly shop Newton, teams may be wary of trading for possibly damaged goods. That would drive down his trade value. Then again, an NFL team traded a first-round pick for Sam Bradford as recently as 2016. Anything is possible.

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4. O.J. Howard, TE Buccaneers

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

It wouldn’t make much sense for the Buccaneers to hold on to an asset like Howard if Bruce Arians isn’t going to use him. After being billed as the next great NFL tight end, Howard struggled in the new offense and was targeted only 54 times last season.

The 2017 first-round pick would draw plenty of suitors if Tampa Bay put him on the block and could fetch a Day 2 pick if the Bucs were willing to trade him. If the 2019 season is any indication, he’s more valuable to the team as a trade chip than a tight end, as Arians doesn’t seem to be overly interested in featuring him in the offense.

He may have already been traded if not for his contract, which would stick the Bucs with a $3.5 million cap charge while providing no savings. That could very well drive up Tampa’s asking price to the point where no team would be willing to deal for him.

5. Darius Slay, CB Lions

Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

A team like the Lions should not be so eager to give away a blue-chip talent like Slay, but there is no chance the 28-year-old will re-sign with the team next offseason, so it might as well try to get something in return for him.

Dealing the Pro Bowler would not only bring in a valuable draft pick (or two) but it would also free up nearly $10.5 million in cap space. And the Lions should have no problem finding a trade partner. Slay is one of the best coverage corners in the league, and top corners typically cost more than $10.5 million, which would be his cap hit number for his new team. Slay can play inside or out and match up with receivers of all sizes.

If Detroit puts him on the block, it’ll get calls from teams all over the league.

Stars who will definitely be on the move … either via trade or release

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

A.J. Bouye, CB jaguars

Bouye is coming off his worst season as a Jaguar, but life as an NFL cornerback is volatile. I would not be surprised if he bounces back and performs like one of the better No. 2 corners in the game. But even if he does, I’m not sure he’s worth the $15.4 million cap hit he’ll carry in 2020. The Jags should have no problem moving him, as he’d cost his new team $13.5 million. That’s not a bad number for a good starting cornerback.

Sammy Watkins, WR Chiefs

I’m sure the Chiefs would love to keep Watkins around but his cap hit balloons to $21 million next season. By dealing him, Kansas City would save $14 million of that, which could be used to retain star DT Chris Jones and go toward an extension for some dude named Patrick Mahomes. If they can’t find a team willing to pay Watkins’ $14 million base salary (or convince him to take a pay cut), releasing him will be the only option.

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Andy Dalton, QB Bengals

OK, so maybe Dalton isn’t really a star, but he’s a solid starting quarterback with a reasonable cap hit and there are teams out there who could use one of those right about now. (Yes, I’m talking about you, Chicago.) A team could wait for the Bengals to release Dalton but then he’d be on the open market, which could drive up his cap hit. By trading for him, his new team would get Dalton for the reasonable price of $17.7 million.

Everson Griffen, DE Vikings, and Olivier Vernon, DE Browns

I’m grouping these two together because they’re both in similar situations. Their teams could use the extra cap space, and while Vernon and Griffen still offer good production off the edge, both are probably overpriced at this point. Griffen’s case is particularly interesting. By registering more than six sacks and playing over 57% of the Vikings’ snaps in 2019, he earned the option to void his contract and become a free agent. That could make it harder to move him this offseason. Either way, it’s unlikely he’ll be in Minnesota next season.

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Grading the NFL offseason: Seahawks make low-risk, high-reward move with Greg Olsen signing

The Seahawks fill a need a month before free agency begins.

This NFL offseason, Steven Ruiz will be offering his thoughts and grading every major deal that goes down, including contract extensions, trades and free-agent signings.

Greg Olsen wasn’t unemployed for very long. The former Panthers tight end, who was released by Carolina earlier this month, agreed to terms with the Seahawks on a one-year deal worth $7 million, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The contract includes $5.5 million guarantees.

If the Seahawks think they’re getting the All-Pro tight end we saw in Carolina before injuries took their toll, well, I have some bad news. But here’s some good news: While Greg Olsen may longer be at that level, he remains a valuable player and one who will fill a hole on Seattle’s roster.

Olsen is not the athlete he once was — the 4.5 40-yard-dash he ran at the 2007 combine is probably closer to a 4.7 now — but he still knows how to get open thanks to all the little tricks he’s learned over the first dozen years of his career. He’s a professional route runner who can run past slower linebackers or box out smaller safeties while lined up in the slot or isolated out wide.

Olsen’s 2019 numbers aren’t super impressive — he averaged 7.3 yards per target but most of the blame for that falls on the poor service he got from Carolina’s backup quarterbacks. Of the 82 targets he received last season, 22 were charted as “uncatchable” by Sports Info Solutions. Only three tight ends saw fewer off-target passes thrown their way.

This play pretty much sums up Olsen’s experience in 2019. He beats his man with some professional route-running only for his quarterback to miss wildly…

This should improve now that Russell Wilson will be the one providing him with targets. The partnership should be mutually beneficial, too, as Seattle has lacked a reliable slot target ever since Doug Baldwin announced his retirement. With Olsen out there, Wilson will have a tight end he can trust to get open and catch the ball on third down. He should compliment D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett well with his ability to win in the middle part of the field.

You could do a lot worse than Olsen for $7 million. With Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry and Eric Ebron expected to sign longer deals with average salaries approaching the eight-figure mark, the Seahawks managed to find good value a month before the free agency period kicks off. That’s a good way to kick off what will be a vital offseason in the Pacific Northwest.

Of course, there’s a catch. A player with Olsen’s track record would typically command a higher number on the open market, but he’s approaching 35 and has missed an average of six games over the past three seasons.

The success of this deal will ultimately hinge on Olsen’s ability to stay healthy, but even if he does end up hurt, Seattle isn’t making a big financial commitment as this deal allows them to release Ed Dickson, who spent all of 2019 on injured reserve, and save $3 million in the process. And Olsen will likely have to play a full 16-game season to earn the entirety of his $7 million salary.

Grade: C+

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Grading the NFL offseason: Cardinals find solid value with D.J. Humphries contract

The Cardinals did let D.J. Humphries get to free agency, but did they get a good deal?

This NFL offseason, Steven Ruiz will be offering his thoughts and grading every major deal that goes down, including contract extensions, trades and free-agent signings.

Cardinals LT D.J. Humphries was slated to hit the open market next month, but the Cardinals never allowed that to happen. On Monday night, they agreed to a three-year, $45 million deal with the 26-year-old. According to NFL Media’s Mike Garafolo, $29 million of the total value is guaranteed.

The structure of the contract will determine how good of a deal the Cardinals got here for their starting left tackle. The overall numbers aren’t flattering for Arizona, but if the contract is structured like the one the Buccaneers gave Donovan Smith last offseason (as OverTheCap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald theorized), then it’s a good bit of business.

Smith’s guaranteed money was comprised of his 2018 and 2019 base salaries and a $5.5 million roster bonus in the first offseason of the deal. If Humphries agreed to a similar pact, the Cardinals are somewhat protected if the 2020 season doesn’t go as planned for Humphries, who had struggled to stay healthy before the 2019 season when he played a full 16-game slate for the first time in his career. With no prorated signing bonus, the Cardinals won’t be stuck with a cap charge if they decide to move Humphries next offseason. Either way, if it is structured similarly to the Smith contract, this is essentially a two-year, $30 million deal.

At this point in his career, Humphries looks like a league-average blindside protector who still has plenty of room to grow. He can be a little over-aggressive with his hands, which can throw off his balance, but he typically does a good job of recovering and shuttling his man past the quarterback. In 2019, Humphries earned a PFF pass-blocking grade of 76.3, the highest of his career. According to Sports Info Solutions, his blown block rate is awfully similar to that of Jack Conklin and Anthony Castonzo, two of the top tackles available this offseason. And both are expected to sign larger deals than the one Humphries signed.

The big concern with Humphries is, of course, his health. He missed 18 games over the course of the 2017 and 2018 seasons. With a short-term contract that is highly tradeable, the Cardinals have done a decent job protecting themselves if Humphries’ poor injury luck does continue. If it doesn’t, and Humphries continues to develop as he did in 2019, this is a solid (possibly good) deal for Arizona.

Grade: C+

PODCAST: Constructing the Bills’ 2020 free agent big board

Kyle Silagyi is joined by Justin DiLoro and McKenna Middlebrook to construct the Buffalo Bills’ free-agent big board.

The 2020 NFL offseason has finally arrived.

The craziness of the NFL regular season will soon be replaced with the insanity that is the offseason, as players on expiring contracts will officially become free agents on March 18.

On this episode of The Kyle Silagyi Variety Hour, host Kyle Silagyi is joined by BillsWire staff writers McKenna Middlebrook and Justin DiLoro to talk about the players who they feel the Buffalo Bills should pursue this offseason, constructing their own 10-man big board.

They also talk about the latest news in the world of English football and the second slate of XFL games.

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Report: Greg Olsen visits Bills on Wednesday

The Buffalo Bills were the first team that Greg Olsen visited after becoming a free agent.

Greg Olsen’s nation-wide tour of potential landing spots officially commenced Wednesday afternoon at One Bills Drive.

The Buffalo Bills hosted the veteran tight end on a free-agent visit Wednesday, per NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero, Olsen’s first since being released by the Carolina Panthers earlier this week.

Olsen’s visit with the Bills is likely preliminary, as according to Pelissero, the 34-year-old will visit numerous teams before making a decision.

Though a decision likely won’t be made in the immediate future, the idea of seeing the two-time All-Pro ultimately land in Buffalo is not far-fetched.

It likely felt like a high school reunion when Olsen arrived at the Bills’ facilities Wednesday, as Buffalo’s front office and coaching staff are largely made up of people whom Olsen has some familiarity with.

Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott served as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator for six of Olsen’s nine years in Carolina. General manager Brandon Beane was the Panthers’ Director of Football Operations when the team acquired Olsen from the Chicago Bears in 2011.

Combine this familiarity with Buffalo’s need for production at the tight end position, and you may have a match made in heaven.

Though the Bills have youth at tight end, they don’t have a truly impactful player at the position. Buffalo’s tight end group combined for just 604 receiving yards in the 2019 season.

Olsen, while playing with a myriad of below-average quarterbacks, tallied 597 receiving yards.

He also knows what it’s like to play in an offense led by a tall, athletic quarterback with a rocket attached to his right shoulder. Olsen’s best years as a pass-catcher came with Cam Newton as his signal-caller, with the tight end besting the 1,000-receiving yard mark from 2014-2016.

Though Olsen is aging and has a documented history of foot injuries, he proved that he can still be productive in the 2019 campaign. Combine his demonstrated production with his locker room presence, and you have a player whom many teams – including the Bills – are incredibly interested in.

The money that Olsen demands on the open market remains to be seen, but should it choose too, Buffalo could likely match any offer he receives. According to OverTheCap, the Bills have $80 million in cap space, the third-highest total in the league.

Regardless of how Olsen’s Wednesday stop in Buffalo transpires, don’t expect him to leave the facility with a deal. He’s reportedly scheduled visits with the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins, who are led by his former head coach in Ron Rivera, for later in the week.

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Mapping out the Ravens’ perfect 2020 offseason

The Ravens have a little cap space to burn but a bunch of pending free agents and holes to fill. How can they kill it this offseason?

The Baltimore Ravens enter the 2020 NFL offseason with a bitter taste in their mouths. They’ll try to turn the disappointment of their playoff loss into action this offseason in an effort to get better and make a serious run at Super Bowl LV.

In order to do that, Baltimore will need to have a great offseason. That means getting values in free agency and picking the right players in the 2020 NFL Draft to bolster the roster and hopefully patch up their biggest holes. Though both free agency and the draft offer never-ending scenarios that will affect what the Ravens can do, we’ll take a look at what the perfect offseason would look like for Baltimore.

The Ravens are expected to have roughly $27.75 million in available cap space to start, according to Over The Cap. So let’s take a look at how they can free up a little more.

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Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

Cutting players:

Baltimore has a number of players who could be on the chopping block as salary cap casualties this offseason. But I feel like two players are pretty much guaranteed to be cut.

Safety Tony Jefferson was replaced well by Chuck Clark and cornerback Brandon Carr is just too expensive given his role as a depth player and floater in the secondary. Cutting both players would add roughly $13 million to the Ravens’ salary cap, according to OTC, giving them $40.75 million to play with.

We’ll also assume guard Marshal Yanda returns for the 2020 season, which won’t free up any additional money but won’t create a new hole for Baltimore to fill. Though if Yanda does retire, that would add another $7 million to the Ravens’ available salary cap, according to OTC.

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13 important dates in the 2020 NFL offseason

Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports Now that the season ended exactly two days ago, it’s time to focus on the next season. Only one city is reveling in what happened in the 2019 season and 2020 playoffs. The rest of the United States is ready to …

Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Now that the season ended exactly two days ago, it’s time to focus on the next season. Only one city is reveling in what happened in the 2019 season and 2020 playoffs. The rest of the United States is ready to move on. Hope springs eternal in the NFL, that’s why these future dates are kind of important.

February 24 – The Start of the NFL Draft Combine

It’s time to watch football players in shorts do exercises and some drills and get excited about numbers! The draft combine has become big business — and expect the NFL to move it around the country in the next few years — and it’s now televised for all the world to see. We’ll find out who is a workout warrior, some insane physical skills from players, and even get some leaks about interviews. It’s the beginning of the draft process so fans who cheer for teams with a bunch of picks will be especially excited to get this thing started.

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4 top offseason needs for the Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens will have to quickly turn their attention from their sorrows to the 2020 NFL offseason and what needs they have to fill

Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta has likely already been looking towards the offseason and what he’ll need to do to get the team better prepared for next year. He’s looked over the roster and Baltimore’s pending free agents to create a list of places to attack this offseason.

To help fans know where to look as well, I’ve compiled this list of positions the Ravens will need to address this offseason. While the list is in no particular order, expect Baltimore to find free agents or use some picks in the NFL draft to patch up these holes in the coming months.

Pass rush:

Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images

Hats off to defensive coordinator Don Martindale who created something out of nothing. The Ravens lost their top-two pass rushers last offseason, was never able to replace them, and it showed.

Baltimore ranked 20th in sacks-per-pass-attempt, getting the quarterback down just 6.8% of the time. While they blitzed an overwhelming amount this season, the Ravens’ defense was largely only able to generate inconsistent pressure.

Now Baltimore faces another offseason where their top pass rusher is headed for free agency. Much like Za’Darius Smith did last year, outside linebacker Matthew Judon is expected to be one of the top free agents on the market this offseason and could see huge contract offers come his way.

Even if the Ravens are able to re-sign Judon, they really can’t go into next season without adding more help opposite him. While Tyus Bowser stepped up at points and there’s hope Jaylon Ferguson turns the corner in his second season, the pair combined for two fewer sacks than Judon.

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Vikings are set for an interesting offseason

The offseason got off to a rocky start for the Vikings who lost their offensive coordinator to the Cleveland Browns.

The Minnesota Vikings season came to a disappointing end Saturday night, after getting dominated by the San Francisco 49ers 27-10. It seemed as if the Vikings found their rhythm after beating the Saints in overtime, but the 49ers proved to be the better team. 

The 2019 season had its ups and downs but ultimately ended in disappointment fashion. Getting routed in the playoffs after an emotional victory the week before is becoming all too familiar with the Vikings. 

Getting dominated in the playoffs is something that will never become an easy pill to swallow, but what lies ahead should worry Vikings fans more than the loss to the 49ers. 

The 2020 offseason is going to be a memorable one for the Vikings, and it has already begun with the loss of their offensive coordinator. Kevin Stefanski didn’t have his best play-calling day in San Francisco, but he has taken the head coaching position for the Cleveland Browns. 

The addition of Gary Kubiak was a big one for the Vikings in the 2019 offseason, but the Vikings now have to find another offensive play-caller to pair up with the former Super Bowl-winning head coach. 

Not only are the Vikings going to have to find a replacement for the man who has been in the Vikings system since 2006, but they have quite a few roster spots that need some help. 

The secondary has been a big question mark for the Vikings this entire season, and that will likely continue heading into the 2020 season. Current members of the secondary that are set to become free agents include Anthony Harris, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, Jayron Kearse and Andrew Sendejo. Three of the five were regular starters for the Vikings, so the secondary could be seeing some new faces next season. 

Out of this group, Anthony Harris should be toward the top of the Vikings priorities this offseason. Harris was tied for the most interceptions in 2019, and also ranked as the highest-graded safety in PFF’s system. 

The tricky part about having so many free agents comes down to the Vikings cap issues heading into the offseason. The Vikings have the least amount of cap space among NFL teams, so it will be interesting to see how active they are when free agency opens up on March 18. 

The secondary has free agent problems and a big question mark with where the team stands with Xavier Rhodes, but the Vikings have free agents all across the board. Everson Griffen, Dan Bailey, Britton Colquitt, Eric Wilson and C.J. Ham are just a few more names, and there are several other backups with the chance to leave Minnesota. 

The Vikings have cap space issues and a lot of starters set to become free agents, but these are not the only issues that need to be addressed. Whether it be in the draft or in free agency, the Vikings are going to need to upgrade in a few different areas. 

The interior of the offensive line and defensive line, the secondary and the wide receiver three positions should all be addressed this offseason. The 49ers are a prime example of what a team can look like when the trenches are flat out dominated. The Vikings don’t have that on either side of the ball, and will more than likely continue to get pushed around if they don’t address the issue in 2020. 

Kirk Cousins proved this season that he has the ability to win in the big moment. The stats have always been good for Cousins, but he still has a ton of narratives that follow him around. He won his first career playoff game this season, put up great stats and should probably get a contract extension moving forward. 

However, that doesn’t change the fact that the Vikings had Sean Mannion as their backup quarterback, a position that should get addressed in the 2020 draft. The Vikings have had their troubles when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, but this should be the season they address the issue. 

Cousins has proven that he can be the guy, but that shouldn’t stop the team from trying to find his successor for down the road. Drafting a quarterback to sit behind Cousins for a few years should be a priority for the Vikings. They wouldn’t need to use an early pick, but the idea of getting a younger quarterback to learn the system from the sidelines could lead to finding the next franchise quarterback. 

After a discouraging loss in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the last thing Vikings fans want to hear is how difficult of an offseason is up ahead for the team. However, the Vikings are in for an interesting offseason with multiple free agents, little to no cap space, various positions needing attention and at least one big coaching change.