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A five-game losing skid will do a lot to change the complexion of your season. But that’s where the New Orleans Saints stand after Thursday night’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys, which dropped them to a 5-7 record.
It’s somewhere they’ve been before. The Saints have had a 5-7 record by Week 13 four times in the Sean Payton era, finishing each season with a mediocre 7-9 record. But this sustained series of losses is new and reversing course will be really difficult. They aren’t going to improve overnight and rip off five wins to close the season.
Right now the Saints are projected to receive the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft by Tankathon, but there are several games left to play this week that could change the draft order. The Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins (who traded their pick to the Eagles), and Carolina Panthers each share New Orleans’ 5-7 record but are ahead of the Saints owing to their weaker strength of schedule. While the Panthers are on their bye week, an Eagles win over the New York Jets and a Dolphins victory against the Giants could move the Saints up to the 9th overall pick.
However, an Atlanta Falcons loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or a Detroit Lions upset win over the Minnesota Vikings this week would put either (or both) of those teams ahead of the Saints in the current draft order. So in the best-case scenario for the Saints — from a draft order perspective — they come out of Week 13 projected with the 9th overall selection.
In the worst-case scenario, all the teams the Saints need to lose this week instead win, and they’re projected to pick at 13th overall. Not great.
But to spin it from a more optimistic view, the Saints are currently the 12th seed in the NFC playoff picture. Losses for the Vikings, Eagles, and Washington Football Team this week could help the Saints climb as high as 9th, still trailing the Falcons (regardless of result) and Panthers. They aren’t dead yet but there’s still a lot of work to be done to reach the postseason. Beating the Falcons and Panthers head-to-head in January would do a lot to help.
That’s the problem, though. The deluge of injuries the Saints took this season squandered their 5-2 start and now they’re closer to securing a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft than they are to qualifying for the playoffs. That’s an unenviable position for anyone to be in, particularly a team that entered the year with Super Bowl ambitions.
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