Point/Counterpoint – Conor McGregor vs. ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone: Who has the edge at UFC 246?

Who has the edge in the newly announced UFC 246 main event between Conor McGregor and Donald Cerrone? Dam Tom breaks it down.

Point: Struggle with southpaws for ‘Cowboy’

For those who’ve been following Cerrone’s career, it’s no secret that the skilled kickboxer has tended to struggle against southpaws stylistically, holding a record of 4-9 against UFC-level lefties (which could easily stand at 3-10 when looking at his last fight with Benson Henderson).

Cerrone has also been TKO’d in 4 of his last 6 losses (which only dates back to 2017), something that could portend trouble for him should he decide to stay on the feet with a southpaw who – despite being known for his counters – is very competent when it comes to using and playing with pressure.

Counterpoint: McGregor against kickers?

When looking over McGregor’s resume, his sample size is deceptively devoid of Thai-style kickboxers. It also doesn’t help that his fights with high-level strikers and competent kickers have mostly tended to end early and in his favor.

Still, when looking over the numbers, one statistic stood out to me: leg kicks.

Cerrone, who holds the UFC record for most leg kicks landed inside of the octagon, doesn’t tend to dwindle in that department when posed with an opposite-stance opponent. Whereas McGregor, though winning the majority of the exchanges he takes part in, typically gives a lot away in both the distance and leg kick categories.

In fact, Holloway, Dustin Poirier and Dennis Siver all scored 90-plus percent of their offense at distance, while legs kicks led in both in the lands and percentage fields when each fighter faced the famed Irishman. I also noticed that Conor, when he did choose to counter kicks, often did so with trip takedowns – something that he may think twice about given Cerrone’s dangerous guard game.

Next page: Welterweight advantages and disadvantages

[vertical-gallery id=330082]