The Philadelphia Phillies (46-43) head to loanDepot park Friday to start a 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (43-45) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly is 5-5 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, but enters on a 4-game losing skid at the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays.
Miami is also 5-5 SU in the last 10 with 3 consecutive series splits with the Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Marlins lead the season series with the Phillies 4-3 with a plus-7 run differential in those meetings.
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Phillies at Marlins projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara
Gibson is 4-3 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 91 1/3 IP over 17 starts.
- Last start: Won 1-0 Saturday at the Cardinals with 7 scoreless IP, 2 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
Alcantara is 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 130 1/3 IP over 18 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 2-0 win Sunday at the New York Mets with 7 scoreless IP, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Phillies: 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 4 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
Phillies at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:57 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Marlins -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Marlins -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Phillies 2
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the MARLINS (-170) instead of betting to win 1 unit because of the expensive price tag.
Miami has a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup and is more productive at the plate vs. right-handed pitching than the Phillies (+140).
Alcantara is the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NL Cy Young at -110 and has a quality start in 11 of his last 12 outings.
The Marlins are 6-3 SU as favorites with a plus-16.0% return on investment (ROI) with Alcantara on the mound and the total set at 7.5 or lower.
Also, Miami’s lineup is slightly better than Philly’s against right-handed pitching in wRC+ (104-97), wOBA (.311-.310), BB/K rate (0.35-0.33) and hard-hit rate (28.8-28.7%), according to FanGraphs.
If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the MARLINS (-170) to earn a $58.82 profit instead of betting $170 to win $100.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Marlins -1.5 (+130) just isn’t a big enough payout considering they are 2-7 RL as favorites with a minus-45.0% ROI with Alcantara getting the nod and a total at 7.5 or lower. Also, the Phillies +1.5 (-160) are 18-8 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because the Marlins are 6-11-1 O/U when Alcantara gets the start and the Phillies are 7-10 O/U when Gibson is on the bump.
That said, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because most of the situational O/U trends point to the Over 6.5 (-135), we are getting by far the worst of the number since the Phillies-Marlins opened with a 7.5 total according to Pregame.com and Miami’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
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