The Philadelphia Phillies (5-10) battle the Cincinnati Reds (6-8) Sunday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Reds have traded off winning and losing over their last 4 games. They throttled the Phillies on Saturday 13-0, but have allowed 4.4 runs per game over their last 5. Cincinnati is a strong 5-3 at home, the 2nd-best home record in the NL Central.
The Phillies, who had high expectations coming into the season, have lost 4 of their last 5 and have been outscored by 17 over that stretch of games. Philadelphia is just 2-7 on the road this season.
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Phillies at Reds projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Luis Cessa
Nola (0-2, 7.04 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.5 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 15 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed 20 hits and 12 ER through 3 starts after finishing 4th in NL CY Young voting last season
- Was 6-4 at home last season, but just 5-9 on the road with a 3.00 ERA away from Citizens Bank Park
Cessa (0-1, 7.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.8 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 3.0 K/9 through 9 IP.
- Hasn’t performed well early on, allowing 7 ER in just 9 IP
- The 30-year-old was 1-2 at home last season in 4 starts with a 6.08 ERA and just 28 Ks in 37 IP
Phillies at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-115) | Reds +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Reds nickname picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 7, Reds 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Reds have been as streaky as it comes overlthe past few games, and with the difference in quality of pitchers, they aren’t worth a look at +155. Similarly, the Phillies are too expensive at -190, especially given their poor road record.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-115).
In their 6 meetings this season, the Phillies and Reds have only played one 1-run game. The 29-year-old Nola has had under a 3.50 ERA in 2 of his last 3 seasons and should bounce back here. Nola pitched a 9-inning shutout in his lone battle against Cincinnati last year.
The Reds’ bats should also expect to cool off. Considering the strength of Nola and the lacking play of Cessa, take the PHILLIES -1.5 (-115).
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9 (-115).
The Reds have gone Over in 6 of their last 7 games. Both pitchers have struggled this season which could continue in this battle. The Phillies have gone Over in 2 straight and in 5 of their last 7 as well.
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