Through five games, the Green Bay Packers have an offense dependent on a highly efficient run game and the quick, RPO-based passing game. It has worked for stretches, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers need the deep passing game to come alive for the operation to hit its stride and become more consistent.
A condensed, horizontal passing game only works consistently if the threat of the deep ball is there. And after five games in the post Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling era, the Packers just haven’t been able to hit the deep shots, and now defenses are daring them to try it.
This passing chart from Next Gen Stats tells the story:
This past Sunday, the Packers sliced and diced the Giants in the first half with an effective mix of runs and successful run alerts that got the ball to playmakers in space. The offense scored on four of five drives and finished with 20 points. Wink Martindale eventually countered, bringing an extra defender into the box to account for the run and playing more man-to-man coverage with a single-high safety to combat the quick passing game.
The Packers often had the right counter, but the deep shots didn’t hit because execution on individual plays was lacking. The executions problems are wide-spanning and include the quarterback, receivers and offensive line.
Rodgers finished 0-for-5 on passes thrown over 20 yards. On at least three deep balls, physical play from the Giants in man coverage disrupted the timing of plays. An illegal contact penalty prevented what could have been a 70-yard touchdown to Romeo Doubs. On the pivotal three-and-out series, Allen Lazard was clearly bumped while attempting to run the slot fade, one of his best routes. Earlier, a hold on Christian Watson ruined a staple in-breaking play and resulted in Rodgers tossing up a throwaway deep. On another play, pressure against right guard Royce Newman likely disrupted Rodgers from hitting one of Doubs or Robert Tonyan for what would have been a big play and possibly a touchdown.
The bad news: Teams are going to keep daring the Packers to throw deep until they prove they can do it. At this point, the quarterback and receivers aren’t executing at a consistent enough rate to force them out it.
The good news: Matt LaFleur is dialing up the deep shots at the right times and receivers are getting open at the intermediate to deep areas of the field. Cut out the recurring mental mistakes and get better play from the four-time NFL MVP quarterback and this offense could take off in a big way down the stretch of this season.
The passing game is close. Given how good Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and the run game is, the RPO-based attack should keep creating a lot of yards-after-catch opportunities. And LaFleur’s scheme is consistently working in terms of creating good down-the-field opportunities, so there should be some level of confidence in Rodgers and a growing group of receivers to finally starting hitting them for big plays.
Once this offense is more threatening down the field, everything else opens up and everything in the run game and quick passing game should become more efficient and easier.
Deep passing is often the most difficult part of any offense to get down, especially when there’s new (and inexperienced) characters in play. The Packers haven’t been good throwing the ball down the field but the potential is certainly there because the scheme is so good. If it clicks, the offense will cook. If it doesn’t, this Packers team will remain inconsistent and all the things they do well will get more and more difficult as the season goes on.
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