The Oakland Athletics (68-51) continue their four-game road series against the Chicago White Sox (69-50) Tuesday at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Athletics vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago won the series opener 5-2 as the White Sox bullpen locked down the victory with 1 H, 1 BB and 9 K across 4 IP.
Season series: White Sox lead 1-0.
RHP Chris Bassitt is Oakland’s projected starter. He is 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA (150 IP, 51 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 24 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 17-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K Thursday at the Cleveland Indians.
- Second half stats: 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA (32 IP, 8 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 5.8 K/BB.
- vs. White Sox on current roster (54 PA): 2.13 FIP with a .231 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .371 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.5 K% and 90.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Reynaldo Lopez is on the bump for the White Sox. He is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 0.75 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through two starts and eight relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 1-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins Wednesday.
- vs. Athletics on current roster (69 PA): 3.07 FIP with a .230 BA, .280 wOBA, .461 xSLG, 26.1 K% and 86.6 mph EV.
Athletics at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | White Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+140) | White Sox +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Athletics 4, White Sox 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ATHLETICS (-115) for a half unit because Oakland has a significant edge in the starting pitching duel and in hitting.
In this spot, I’d prefer to take the A’s First 5 Innings money line considering the White Sox have much better relief pitching; however, Tipico offers a three-way line so we could lose instead of chop if Oakland and Chicago are tied after the fifth inning.
A’s batters are first in both wRC+ and BB/K, second in wOBA and ninth in hard-hit rate this month.
Furthermore, Oakland is 22-14 as a road favorite, Bassitt is 8-0 through 14 road starts and Chicago is just 3-4 as a home underdog despite being an exceptional home team this season.
Another cause for the “lean” is we are seeing “reverse line movement” in the betting market as Oakland’s money line is seeing roughly 75% of the action but Chicago’s money line is getting pricier. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Athletics -1.5 (+140) because I “lean” to Oakland’s money line but I’m not confident enough to lay it with the A’s.
However, Oakland is 20-16 ATS as a road favorite while Chicago is 3-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public is on the Over, according to Pregame.com.
Nearly 60% of the money is on the Under while roughly 70% of the action is on the Over, but the oddsmakers have responded to the money column as the total has been steamed down from the 9-run opener to the current number.
My assumption is this movement is based on Bassitt being a fringe AL Cy Young contender and Chicago’s bullpen is one of the best units in baseball. On the other hand, both lineups rake so I’m not crazy about the Under in this spot.
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