Quarterback Dak Prescott is coming off a fairly polarizing season for the Dallas Cowboys. On one hand, he finished 2022 ranked third in success rate and top-10 in EPA + CPOE composite score (expected points added and completion percentage over expected). On the other hand, he led the NFL in interceptions (15), even after missing five games.
Anyone who has spent time reading and debating sports knows different statistics can tell vastly different stories. Many league leaders are a direct byproduct of heavy workload and a statement of quantity, rather than quality. In much the same way some statistics paint one picture of Prescott’s 2022 season while another, more focused stat, may paint an entirely different picture.
Football Outsiders, famous for their DVOA scores, advanced stats and contributions to the analytics community, recently dropped their results for “failed completions” in 2022.
“A failed completion is any completed pass that fails to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down.”
Those who are familiar with “success rate” know those aren’t arbitrarily picked thresholds. For a play to be considered a win for the offense it needs to improve the offense’s chances of scoring on the drive.
For instance: A two-yard completion on 4th-and-1 is a resounding success while a 7-yard completion on 3rd-and-8 is not a success. Therefore the latter is categorized as a “failed completion.”
The purpose of this is to weed out the dump-off passes that prop up volume stats like yards and clarify vague efficacy stats like completion percentage.
Geno Smith (69.8) and Joe Burrow (68.3) led the NFL in completion percentage in 2022. Prescott? He was all the way down at No. 14. Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts both finished ahead of Prescott in completion percentage last season so it would be understandable if some people were critical of Prescott’s most recent season.
But a deeper dive into the quality and effectiveness of these passes paints an entirely different picture.
Dak Prescott was just 14th in completion % in ‘22 but when you account for the quality & effectiveness of the pass, he was top-5. No empty calories on his stat sheet. Per Football Outsiders pic.twitter.com/9BYmXr1bkk
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) March 29, 2023
With a failed completion percentage of just 19.5, Prescott ranked fourth in the NFL in 2022. The NFL’s completion percentage leader (Smith) fell all the way to No. 16, Burrow fell to No. 9, while NFC East foes, Hurts and Jones, ranked 14 and 24, respectively.
It seems these players’ impressive completion percentages were propped up somewhat with empty calories (completions that were unsuccessful plays). Prescott’s completion percentage only struggled because he was pressing down field more. He was trying (and succeeding) in making the play successful by increasing the Cowboys’ scoring odds.
Does this explain Prescott’s high interception totals?
It’s probably no coincidence Josh Allen, the 2022 leader in failed completion percentage (with the lowest number), finished behind Prescott with 14 interceptions himself. Aggressive passers tend turn the ball over more. That’s not controversial to say.
But looking back to 2021, Prescott only threw 10 interceptions (18th in the NFL) and yet he still ranked in the top-10 in low failed completion percentage. It seems to be a pattern of performance with the Cowboys’ signal caller. In 2020, Prescott was again ranked fourth in the NFL. And in 2019, he was the NFL leader in having the lowest failed completion percentage at 17.3.
At the end of the day, Prescott is the embodiment of an anti-dump-off passer. He’s consistently ranked in the top tier of NFL passers in failed completion percentage, indicating his completions aren’t empty calories but rather legitimate efforts to score the ball.
As such, the interceptions in 2022 seem to be an anomaly unrelated to his impressively low failed completion percentage.
Will this elite ranking remain a part of Prescott’s DNA in 2023 or did it leave when Kellen Moore left the city of Dallas?
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