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This week we make moves across the prop bet board. We take one player to score a touchdown, one quarterback, running back and wide receiver to hit the Over and a tight end to hit the Under on his stat projection.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook‘s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 11 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL week 11 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at Saturday at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Houston Texans RB Dameon Pierce SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (-105)
– Host Commanders, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Pierce has 15 or more carries in 8 of his last 9 games and, while scoring is at a premium for the Texans, if they get in scoring position, it’s likely Pierce will get the ball.
Pierce is the centerpiece of the Texans offense, and the Commanders run defense has been routinely shredded. All it takes is one drive to get in deep and Pierce can punch his own ticket. The public must agree because Pierce’s odds have been steamed up from +120.
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Indianapolis Colts QB Matt Ryan OVER 232.5 passing yards (-125)
– Host Eagles, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Colts are the unfortunate team to draw the Eagles first after their perfect season went by the boards. There’s typically a price to pay for the unfortunate team that faces an elite team that is angry and looking to right the ship.
Anyone who knows Ryan’s history knows that he does his best job as a fantasy quarterback when his team gets beat. The Eagles could get a double-digit lead early and try to milk it in the second half.
Ryan has made a living padding his passing stats at garbage time. It won’t be pretty, but it will be effective enough to win. This number has been steamed up from 227.5 so act fast.
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Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Steelers, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bengals are known more this season for throwing than running, but they are still trying to recover from a slow start that began with the Week 1 loss to the Steelers. They’re also trying to find an identity with WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip) out again.
The Bengals offense should be able to push around the injury-depleted Steelers defense. If Cincy gets a lead early, Mixon should get 20 carries. If he gets anywhere close to that total, he should blow past this number.
Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen OVER 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Cowboys, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Cowboys play an aggressive defense, but one thing that can be expected is that Justin Jefferson is going to see double coverage on most his routes.
That will put the pressure on Thielen and T.J. Hockenson to make up the difference because both will in single coverage all day.
Kirk Cousins has been finding Hockenson often, but his history with Thielen will be critical in this game. Four receptions should accomplish this.
Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee UNDER 42.5 receiving yards (-115)
– At Saints, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Matthew Stafford is expected back, but the Rams offense hasn’t been using Higbee to the same degree it has early in the season.
Due to injuries on the offensive line, Rams tight ends have been forced to serve as blockers more than receivers.
With Stafford coming off a concussion, Job One will be to keep him safe. Higbee will likely require 5 catches to hit this number, and that may be a tall order.
More NFL Week 11 picks and predictions
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- Plus: Staff picks | Survivor | Underdogs
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