Real Contenders
Air Force
The Falcons underwhelmed two weeks ago on the road at Wyoming, but in terms of looking like the most complete team in the Mountain West on the whole, Air Force has a very convincing case after four weeks. They’ve dispatched bad teams, as good teams should expect to, thanks to a powerful running game that has averaged 6.68 yards per carry and scored 15 touchdowns to date while the defense has bent without breaking too often: Their 5.61 yards per play allowed ranks seventh in the Mountain West, but the 16 points per game allowed ranks second.
There are yellow flags which could derail a run to the championship, though. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels hasn’t been quite as sharp in the air and has averaged just 8.1 yards per attempt on 11-of-27 throws, while the defense has one sack and 12 tackles for loss through four games. If the Falcons can play the way they want to, they will be difficult to stop… but they aren’t infallible.
Fresno State
The preseason favorites to come out of the West division have taken a few body blows in their first three games, collapsing late at home against Oregon State and then losing both Jake Haener and Evan Williams to injury in a road blowout against USC. They’ll have the opportunity to get right against hapless UConn, but their path to the championship is murky for reasons they could not have anticipated.
Haener’s high ankle sprain could keep him out for four to six weeks, which means that he could miss key games against Boise State, San Jose State, and San Diego State and will make backup Logan Fife an athlete with gigantic shoes to fill. The upside? If he can hold the line, the Bulldogs have been more or less as advertised on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.86 yards per play on offense (second in the Mountain West) and allowing 6.58 YPP to the Beavers and Trojans. It doesn’t seem like there are that many offenses in the conference on that same level, so it’s right there for the taking if Fresno State can beat back the injury bug.
San Jose State
After three games, the Spartans might be the least talked-about team in the Mountain West, but there’s evidence to suggest that they’re building toward something. They survived a scare at home against Portland State, then pieced together a scare of their own on the road at Auburn and won going away against Western Michigan, seeing major improvements on both offense and defense against the Broncos.
Chevan Cordeiro has been his usual self, third in the conference with 272.3 yards of total offense per game in the young season, but much will depend on whether Kairee Robinson can build off of his performance against WMU and if the offense as a whole can improve in the red zone. The Spartans have just five touchdowns in 14 trips inside the 20-yard line, a 35.71% that bests only Colorado State in the conference. One way or another, we’ll find out quickly whether SJSU has staying power since they open conference play with a home date against UNLV that is sandwiched around road trips to Wyoming and Fresno State.
UNLV
There’s no doubt the Rebels have been the surprise of the young season, overcoming a disappointing road loss at Cal to post convincing wins over Idaho State, North Texas, and Utah State. UNLV ranks third on offense and defense by yards per play earned and allowed and, more importantly, pace the Mountain West with 39.5 points per game.
Marcus Arroyo’s team has done just about everything that could be asked of them at this point, but the much-improved offense, in particular, hasn’t really been tested outside of their contest with the Golden Bears: UNT and USU rank 118th and 111th, respectively, by defensive SP+ after four games. There are plenty of potential crucibles ahead, including home dates with Air Force and Fresno State and road contests at San Jose State and San Diego State, but it’s probably safe to say these aren’t the Rebels you once knew.
Wyoming
In spite of the off-season transfer portal defections, the Cowboys have held tough and, for the most part, haven’t looked much different from other Wyoming teams of recent vintage.
One potential caveat? They haven’t exactly run away from the FBS opponents they’ve beaten so far and they’re the only team in the Mountain West with two wins by one score. Quarterback Andrew Peasley has been solid if not spectacular, but the running game hasn’t been quite as effective yet as it has been in years past since Titus Swen is averaging 4.8 yards per carry after managing 5.95 YPC in 2021. The defense hasn’t been consistent, either, though a young and retooled front six, led by DeVonne Harris and Oluwaseyi Omotosho, has demonstrated some pass rushing potential that could pay dividends as the season progresses.
If we haven’t seen peak Wyoming, though, there will be plenty of opportunities ahead in what is, on paper, a friendly path through the conference play in October. With home dates against San Jose State and Utah State and road trips to New Mexico and Hawaii on deck, the Cowboys could make a run to the Mountain division crown.
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