Fringe Contenders
Boise State
Broncos fans who hoped for a strong rebound have been left wanting after four games, with a pair of double-digit wins over New Mexico and UT Martin offset by 17-point losses to Oregon State and UTEP. The latter defeat prompted a change on the sidelines this past weekend, when Tim Plough was replaced as offensive coordinator by former Broncos head coach Dirk Koetter.
The offensive struggles have erased a lot of the good work done by a defense that’s battled injuries in the first month to key contributors like Ezekiel Noa and Tyreque Jones. Boise State leads the Mountain West with 4.66 yards per play allowed, a 26.4% third-down conversion rate allowed, and a 33.3% touchdown rate allowed in the red zone, among other things, and they already have a division win in hand. If the coaching change provides the hoped-for shot in the arm, they aren’t that far away from being back in control within the Mountain.
San Diego State
It’s business as usual on the Mesa, but the formula that led to a 12-win season in 2021 was always bound to lead to some regression and the Aztecs have struggled against quality offenses so far. After leading the Mountain West by allowing 4.74 yards per play last year, SDSU is currently fourth at 5.44 YPP through four games in 2022. The secondary has remained active with 20 passes defended, but the unit hasn’t elite as they were a year ago, which explains why they’ve slid from 27th in preseason defensive SP+ projections to 56th after four weeks. Good, but not great.
It hasn’t helped, either, that Braxton Burmeister has played like one of the worst quarterbacks in the conference, completing only 53.1% of his passes for a pitiful 3.6 yards per attempt despite being asked to throw just 16 times per game. The lone saving grace has been a running game that’s been boom-or-bust, with 26 plays of ten or more yards despite a committee approach that’s yielded mixed results. It’s a tightrope that they’ve walked before, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the rest of the season will look more like last year, when the Aztecs won the West, or like 2018, when they won just seven games.
Utah State
Okay, hear me out.
Utah State’s title defense has been a disaster thus far, with a closer-than-expected win over UConn followed by wipeouts against both Alabama and Weber State. The Aggies showed signs of life in opening Mountain West play against UNLV, but a lack of discipline and far too many backbreaking turnovers proved to be the difference in a ten-point loss at home.
After four games, Utah State ranks seventh in the Mountain West with 4.72 yards per play on offense and sixth in allowing 5.59 YPP on defense. However, they’re also 11th in scoring 15.5 points per game, 10th on both sides of the ball in third-down conversion rate, and last in red zone conversion rate, giveaways, and penalties per game. It isn’t a totally unsalvageable situation, though: The Aggies do rank first in tackles for loss per game and have seven takeaways in four games, while the offensive line has done a good job of keeping Logan Bonner on his feet with just four sacks allowed.
Their biggest saving grace, at least for right now, is that they have not yet played a division game in conference play, either, and won’t until after dealing with BYU on September 29. The margin for error is close to zero, but it isn’t actually zero… yet.