The Miami Marlins (33-38) head into Busch Stadium Monday to start a 3-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (41-34) at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami prevented a 3-game series sweep by the New York Mets with a 3-2 win Sunday, but the Marlins are 5-5 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
St. Louis lost the rubber match of their 3-game set with the Chicago Cubs 6-5 in extra innings Sunday and the Cardinals are just 4-6 SU in their last 10.
The Cardinals lead the season series with the Marlins 2-1 and St. Louis has a plus-1 run differential in those meetings.
Marlins at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Lopez is 5-3 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 82 2/3 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Won 7-4 at home vs. the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 vs. the Cardinals: One start, a 5-0 home win April 21 with 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
Wainwright is 5-5 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 84 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in St. Louis’ 5-4 win at the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday with 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: Won 5-1 April 19 in Miami with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
Marlins at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:57 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-200) | Cardinals -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Cardinals 3
Money line
BET the MARLINS (+110) for 1 unit because they have a 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (-135) in starting and relief pitching and hitting. Also, the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Miami while the public is taking St. Louis.
Lopez grades higher than Wainwright across the MLB in chase rate, whiff rate, expected ERA, and expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, according to Statcast.
Also, Miami’s lineup outranks St. Louis’ vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting stats including runs per 9 (5.03-4.58), wRC+ (111-105), wOBA (.323-.315), ISO (.165-.147) and hard-hit rate (28.1-27.5%), per FanGraphs.
Finally, more than 70% of the money is on Miami whereas roughly 70% of the bets placed are on St. Louis per VegasInsider.com, which is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the cash column since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.
BET the MARLINS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Marlins +1.5 (-200) is properly priced since Miami is 20-9 RL as road underdogs and the Cardinals -1.5 (+160) are just 12-14 RL as home favorites. The bottom line is the Marlins +1.5 (-200) is just out of my price range and Miami’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-120) because the Marlins are 7-0 O/U in Lopez’s last 7 starts on 4 days of rest and 22-19-1 O/U as underdogs while the Cardinals are 14-10-2 O/U as home favorites. It’s only a “lean” since I prefer Miami’s ML.
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