Metrics suggest Elliott’s days as Cowboys’ top back done, Pollard deserves shot

Forget yards or even yards per carry. Rush Yards Over Expectation shows the Cowboys’ RB workhorse has gotten worse for 4 years running. | From @ToddBrock24f7

Cowboys fans waiting for running back Ezekiel Elliott to return to the form that made him the league’s leading rusher in two of his first three seasons may be waiting in vain, says one of ESPN’s senior writers.

Bill Barnwell explored the disappointing 2021 seasons of four of the NFL’s highest-paid ball carriers to get a sense of whether it was fluke, bad injury luck, or something more troubling.

And while he predicts bounceback, mostly-strong campaigns for Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and- to a lesser extent- Alvin Kamara, the stats and metrics suggest that Elliott’s best days are behind him.

Actually long behind him, as the numbers indicate he’s been tapering off for four years running.

Elliott racked up 1,002 yards on the ground last season, but played most of the year with a partially torn PCL. That alone might imply that a fully-healthy Elliott will perform even better in 2022. Even coach Mike McCarthy said this week that the 26-year-old “looks great” in voluntary offseason workouts.

But Barnwell uses Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE) to temper that report. RYOE is an NFL Next Gen Stats model that predicts how many yards a runner will gain given the speed and location of all 22 players on the field when he gets the ball.

Over four years of RYOE data, Elliott has declined every year.

He posted 0.5 RYOE in 2018, when he led the league in rushing attempts, overall touches, and rushing yards. That figure dipped to 0.4 in 2019, 0.1 in 2020, and actually fell into negatives last season, to -0.1 RYOE.

A declining Cowboys offensive line can shoulder at least some of the blame. And an increased dependence on quarterback Dak Prescott plays a part; the team simply doesn’t run as often as they did when Elliott first came into the league.

But, Barnwell points out, “you might argue the Cowboys have leaned more on the pass because Elliott has been less efficient as a runner.”

And then there’s Tony Pollard. The speedster entering his fourth pro season has surpassed Elliott in categories like yards per carry, target rate in the pass game, and yards per route run. To the eye, the backup has plainly been more explosive.

Elliott will make $12.4 million in 2022, suggesting that the Cowboys will continue to feed him the ball. The front office will likely want to try to get their money’s worth before what seems to be his inevitable release next offseason.

Barnwell projects 802 rushing yards for Elliott this season, which would be a career low.

Given the clear trends shown by the numbers, Dallas coaching staff would do well to consider shifting responsibilities in the backfield somewhat, utilizing Elliott’s still-stellar blocking skills on passing downs and bruising running style in key situations. A reduced role would give extra touches to the more effective Pollard, while also keeping Elliott himself fresher for his more strategic opportunities.

Because, as Barnwell concludes, “the days of [Elliott] competing for rushing titles appear to be over.”

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