The Memphis Grizzlies (21-22) drop by Toyota Center Monday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off against the Houston Rockets (13-32). Below, we analyze the Grizzlies-Rockets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Memphis dropped back-to-back games at the Utah Jazz following a three-game win streak. The Grizzlies are 4-4 straight up (SU) and 5-3 against the spread (ATS) in the last two weeks.
Houston split its last four games SU and ATS with the latest game being a 129-107 beatdown of the Minnesota Timberwolves Saturday. The Rockets lost 20 straight games before their March 22 victory over the Toronto Raptors.
Houston’s last win prior to that 20-game losing skid was against Memphis Feb. 4, but the Rockets were routed 133-84 by the Grizzlies Feb. 28.
Grizzlies at Rockets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Rockets +275 (bet $100 to win $275)
- Against the spread/ATS: Grizzlies -8 (-110) | Rockets +8 (-110)
- Over/Under: 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Grizzlies at Rockets: Key injuries
Grizzlies
- PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out
Rockets
- SG Avery Bradley (calf) questionable
- C Christian Wood (illness) questionable
- SG Eric Gordon (groin) out
- SF David Nwaba (wrist) out
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Grizzlies at Rockets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Grizzlies 119, Rockets 115
Money line (ML)
Slight LEAN toward ROCKETS (+275) because Houston’s play should improve as it gets healthier and builds togetherness under rookie head coach Stephen Silas.
The Grizzlies are winning 66.7% of their games as a road favorite this season and their implied win probability is 77.8% based on the money line odds. Also, Memphis is a young team that’ll put up an occasional clunker.
Houston plus the points is a far better bet so I’m only on ROCKETS (+275) for a one-tenth-unit, pending the final injury report.
(The predicted score is an honest projection.)
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Against the spread (ATS)
If Wood is given the green light by Houston to play in this game then I like the ROCKETS +8 (-110) because he and newly acquired big Kelly Olynyk can open up driving lanes against the Grizzlies.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Wood is in the 98th percentile of bigs in on-off court team effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) and Olynyk is in the 90th percentile of bigs in team on-off court points per 100 possessions while playing for the Miami Heat.
Furthermore, this is a Pros vs. Joes game within the betting market; according to Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the money wagered is on the Rockets to cover but 83% of the bets have been placed on the Grizzlies.
Since the sharp side of the market is typically the money column whereas the tickets column is the average joe, let’s follow the money and BET ROCKETS +8 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Houston’s path to victory on this one is by outscoring Memphis, not shutting them down. The Grizzlies are much bigger and more physical but just 21st in defensive eFG%.
Since we are getting to the party a little late (the total has been steamed up from the 221.5-point opener), I can only LEAN OVER 226.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit.
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Also see:
- Olynyk starts for Rockets; Wood out with sore right ankle (Rockets Wire)
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