March Madness: Michigan State vs. Mississippi State odds, picks and predictions

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The Michigan State Spartans (19-14) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-13) clash in an NCAA Tournament West Region, 1st-round game in Charlotte. Tip-off from Spectrum Center is set for 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook ‘s lines around the Michigan State vs. Mississippi State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

Michigan State last played Friday, falling to No. 3-ranked Purdue 67-62 — covering as an 8½-point underdog). An MSU defense tied for the Big Ten lead at 65.9 points allowed per game has led the way for the Spartans. But the Michigan State offense has sputtered of late. The Spartans have shot just 41.1% from the field in going 2-5 since Feb. 20.

Mississippi State last played Saturday, losing to No. 7 Auburn 73-66. MSU was an 8-point underdog, and the against-the-spread win marked the Bulldogs’ third in a row. Mississippi State got to the line 27 times against Auburn; the Bulldogs rank in the top-60 in the nation in free-throw frequency.

– Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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Michigan State vs. Mississippi State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:49 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Michigan State -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mississippi State +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State -1.5 (-105) | Mississippi State +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 130.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Michigan State vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions

Prediction

Michigan State 69, Mississippi State 68

Moneyline

PASS. Better value can be found against the number.

Against the spread

Mississippi State is 9-0 ATS on neutral hardwood and 15-10 ATS against winning teams.

Michigan State often gets pushed into taking iffy shots, and the Spartans figure to be at a disadvantage in rebounding and free-throw looks. The Bulldogs have been overall inconsistent at times, but they are elite in defending the perimeter (holding opponents to a 29.4% mark from 3-point range).

The Spartans will try to grind down the pace in this game, and that figures to grind down an overall Bulldog edge. Consider a partial-unit play on MISSISSIPPI STATE +1.5 (-115).

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Over/Under

The play here is relatively strong, and it’s a zag against the zig of where the public has settled this total. The defenses and expected slow pace are driving the low-scoring narrative. But look for the Bulldogs to get plenty of 2nd-chance points and free throws, and look for the Spartans to have more than a few transition buckets off turnovers.

Look for a total in the 135-140 range. BACK OVER 130.5 (-110).

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