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The Gators enter Neyland Stadium on Saturday knowing exactly what’s at stake. With a win over the 2-5 Vols, Florida will clinch the SEC East for the first time since 2016.
But a rivalry game stands in its way, albeit one that has lost some luster in recent years. The Gators have only lost to Tennessee once since 2004, a come from behind win at Neyland in 2016.
But this Vols team shouldn’t present nearly the challenge that squad did. Tennessee has struggled this season with senior quarterback Jarrett Guarantano failing to live up to expectations.
He’s been benched for true freshman quarterback Harrison Bailey, who will make his first career start against UF. Bailey hasn’t been particularly impressive in his outings this season, tossing two interceptions and no touchdowns, but he sparked the offense late in UT’s last game, a loss to Auburn.
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Florida’s defense has struggled this season, but not enough that an inexperienced true freshman should give it qualms. The Gators are good at pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers, both of which should make life very hard for Bailey.
Expect the Vols to lean heavily on their experienced run game led by Ty Chandler and Eric Gray. Unfortunately for Tennessee, its attack has become exceedingly one-dimensional, and Florida should be prepared for a run-heavy game plan.
And running the ball likely won’t score enough points to stay competitive with Florida’s offense, which looks to be about unstoppable. No team this season has been able to contain it, and there’s no reason to expect a middle-of-the-road Tennessee defense will be the lone exception.
Florida has dominated this series in the first two years under Dan Mullen, and the gap between the two programs has only grown since he arrived in 2018.
The Gators will secure another comfortable win and a spot in the SEC Championship game against the Vols.
Prediction: Florida 49, Tennessee 14
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