New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has enjoyed so much early success that he’s building increased expectations.
Not only are the Patriots, now the No. 1 team in the AFC, looking like Super Bowl contenders, but Jones looks like he could develop into one of the top pocket passers in the NFL. Jones has his limitations, which is typical for a rookie. He has also been rock solid in doing what the Patriots need him to do to win games, which has led to a six-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the NFL. That’s what has drawn the attention of Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, now an NFL analyst for NFL Network.
“Sometimes he might get to his check-down a little too fast, but he’s a rookie,” Warner told ESPN last week. “Even if it’s getting a check-down for 4 [yards], and passing up a play for 12, you can live with that. … People want to compare him to who Tom Brady was in ’01. He’s doing more for this team, and playing better than Tom Brady did in ’01.
“To me, that’s the compliment you’re looking for. Is he Tom Brady? No. Is he one of the best guys in the league? No. But … what he’s doing at such an early stage, and playing within himself and understanding he can win that way, that’s impressive. There are guys that have been in the league a long time that don’t see the field and understand their reads like he does.”
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Jones’ biggest perceived weakness has been his reluctance to throw downfield, but it seems he’s improving in that regard. His air yards per completion have gone up over the last six weeks (when the Patriots went 6-0) when compared to the first six weeks of the season (when the Patriots went 2-4). His average depth of target has decreased over the last six weeks when compared to the first six weeks —a stat that complicates the picture, slightly.
Jones has been 15 of 41 during the 2021 season on throws that travel 20 yards or more past the line of scrimmage (deep balls). He’s throwing a deep ball on 11% of his passes. Compare those numbers to the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, one of the elite deep passers, who is 22 of 42 on deep balls and throws deep balls on just 9% of his passes. Jones is throwing downfield ever so slightly more often than one of the premier passers. The rookie QB is also struggling to complete those passes at an elite clip. He’s also doing so with a tremendous supporting cast on the offensive line and at tight end.
Jones is making progress on every type of throw. But there’s still some question as to how far he can come from a developmental standpoint.
“We’ve seen him make some really good throws, but I don’t know what his upside is,” Warner told ESPN.
It will be fascinating to see how far Bill Belichick can bring Jones in this new era of Patriots football.
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