The Indianapolis Colts traded up for running back Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft with a vision of him making an immediate impact upon arrival.
Despite likely being in a timeshare with both Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines, Taylor still has a path for production during his rookie season. According to the projection model of Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com, Taylor will be the second-most productive rookie running back in 2020.
Yep, I’m going right back to the yards-after-contact well because it really is an extremely helpful data signal in modeling rookie running back production. Since 2017, according to PFF, Taylor’s 3,921 yards after contact are the most in college football — by 941 yards! Add in that he’s playing behind my model’s second-best O-line (one that has great continuity, which my models are all tuned into even more this year, given the abbreviated offseason) and his real — and fantasy — value appears quite enticing. Despite being in a time share with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines, Taylor is my model’s No. 25 overall fantasy running back.
Taylor is ranked only behind Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was taken with the No. 32 overall pick in the draft. Given his chance to be a lead back in the league’s best offense, it makes sense that he would be the top projected running back.
Taylor will get his share of work throughout the season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mack get more work early in the season while Taylor takes over for the second half due to his talent.
How productive Taylor will be all depends on the target share numbers. If Hines truly takes up the bulk of the passing work, Taylor will be limited statistically. However, if Taylor works himself into a role where he finds himself on the field more and more, he’s going to see a solid target share.
Regardless, the ceiling for Taylor may be limited during his rookie season because of the timeshare, but he should still be a productive piece of the offense from the start.