Week 8 against the New England Patriots is more than just a normal regular-season game for the New York Jets. It’s a chance to exercise some demons and exact some sweet revenge.
The Jets enter this key divisional battle having won four straight to get to a 5-2 start, but they face a team in the Patriots that they have not defeated since 2015. The Jets have lost 12 straight to the Patriots and 20 out of 22 since winning in Foxborough in the AFC Divisional in the 2010 season.
But the most recent loss is the one that stings the most and the one the Jets wants to overcome. That was the 54-13 loss where the Jets felt the Patriots ran up the score and they have not forgotten that, especially defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.
Sunday is the Jets’ chance to overcome all that. They also have a chance to prove they can win without two more of their offensive starters, as the Jets play their first game this season without RB Breece Hall and OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, who are both out for the season with injuries.
So how do the Jets win without those two? Well, better performances from Zach Wilson would be a good place to start. Wilson is 4-0 as starter this season, but you can argue three of those wins have been in spite of Wilson. Perhaps now that Hall is out, the Jets will put more trust in Wilson, especially against a Patriots secondary that will be without safety Kyle Duggar, who was ruled out Saturday with an ankle injury.
Last week against the Broncos, Wilson posted an expected points added per play (EPA/play) of -0.23, an average depth of target (aDoT) of 4.4 and an expected QB rating of 24.7, per RBSDM. Of course, neither offense was particularly great in the Jets’ 16-9 win. Obviously, those numbers need to be much, much better, especially with not having Hall anymore this season.
Since Wilson came back in Week 4, he ranks 24th in EPA/play among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays (-0.081). The other quarterbacks in that group with a lower EPA/play are Carson Wentz (-0.183), Matthew Stafford (-0.177), Jared Goff (-0.145) and Russell Wilson (-0.116). If we use the entire season, Wilson ranks 32nd, ahead of Stafford, Joe Flacco, Davis Mills and Baker Mayfield. (Mayfield is in a class of his own.)
Fortunately, the quarterback on the visiting sideline hasn’t been all that great himself. Mac Jones has struggled in his second season. Among all quarterbacks this season with at least 100 plays, Jones ranks 25th out of 36 quarterbacks in EPA/play. He’s also coming off a rough night against the Bears with an interception and being pulled after three series for Bailey Zappe, though Patriots head coach Bill Belichick claims the plan all along was for both quarterbacks to play.
What’s also interesting about this quarterback matchup is these are the two worst quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus grading, under pressure among the current 32 starting quarterbacks. Jones is 31st with a 24.0 passing grade under pressure and Wilson is 32nd with a 23.1 grade.
So pressure is going to be the name of the game here and both teams have excellent pass-rushers. Which is where one of the key matchups for the Jets also comes into play: Quinnen Williams against the Patriots’ interior offensive line. Especially since the Patriots will be without center David Andrews, who suffered a concussion in the Monday loss to the Bears, a hit that led to the ejection of Bears DL (and former Jet) Mike Pennel.
While the Patriots will have a backup center in James Ferentz, they should have their good young guard Mike Onwenu in the lineup. The Jets would be wise to put pressure on the backup center and also on the bookend tackles, where they have had trouble manning the right tackle spot, in particular, between Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown. The Jets edge group should be able to really rattle the cages of Jones.
On the flip side, look for Patriots’ edge Matthew Judon to go after Cedric Ogbuehi, who will start at right tackle, at least until George Fant and Max Mitchell return, then the Jets will have decisions to make. Ogbuehi made one start last season for the Seahawks.
The wide receivers for the Patriots may not be as scary as some of the receivers D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner have faced this season, but this isn’t a bad group, especially Jakobi Meyers, who may be the most underrated receiver in the NFL. Meyers has great hands and both Jones and Zappe have given a ton of targets to him because they know he can be trusted with the ball in his hands and to make catches. He’s the man on the outside the Jets have to take care of, but the Patriots can also pop off explosive deep shots to Kendrick Bourne and have Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith over the middle. But again, if the Jets can get home with the pass rush, those receivers won’t have many chances to do any sort of damage.
One other player the Jets have to figure out how to stop is running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson can beat you in a number of ways. He’s a strong runner and the Patriots have shown they will involve him in the passing game, as evidenced by his eight receptions against the Bears. Even with Damien Harris getting healthy again, Stevenson has seemingly taken over the Patriots’ backfield and he can do some damage. The Jets’ linebackers have to be on their toes in this one.
The Patriots are between 2.5 and 3-point favorites in this one, but you can make an argument, despite the injuries, that the Jets should be favored. Maybe history played a part in that line, certainly the injuries as well. But the Jets have the momentum, they will make Mac Jones very uncomfortable and the home crowd will be rocking as the team inducts D’Brickashaw Ferguson into their Ring of Honor. The Jets get their revenge from last season.
Prediction: Jets 17, Patriots 13