Is Texas A&M football ahead of Texas Longhorns with one month to the Lone Star Showdown?

Countdown to the Texas vs. Texas A&M in the Lone Star Showdown, a rivalry fueled by pride, passion, and stats.

We are just one month away from the revival of the Lone Star Showdown. Early analytics suggest that the Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies are nearly deadlocked in a potential nail-biter.

With a win probability of 50.95% favoring Texas over Texas A&M’s 49.05%, this matchup is set to be tightly contested, with projected final scores hovering around 23-22 in favor of the Longhorns. The final score could very well come down to the last minute, and like the last game, it could come down to a field goal.

The Longhorns hold the series all-time win record at 76-37-5, but records do mean little when these teams will meet. It is about pride, legacy, and the kind of bragging rights that will last until the next meeting.

Offensive and Defensive Margins

Texas holds a slight advantage in EPA (Expected Points Added) margin, ranking fourth compared to Texas A&M’s fifteenth, hinting at more efficient plays. The Longhorns’ offensive success rate stands at 45%, ranking 30th nationally, just a slight edge over A&M’s comparable 43.6%.

The defensive statistics also show Texas with a slight upper hand, with their unit ranked fourth in overall defensive efficiency versus the Aggies’ ranking of twentieth. Texas excels particularly in the defensive EPA on passing plays, with a defensive drop-back EPA margin of -0.168, compared to Texas A&M’s 0.080. However, the Aggies make up ground on early downs, with a third/fourth-down success rate of 44.2%, superior to Texas’ 35.8%.

Key Battlegrounds: Rushing Efficiency and Third Downs

Both teams show vulnerabilities in rushing. Texas ranks 33rd in defensive rush success, while Texas A&M’s offensive rush success rate is similarly modest at 44.4%. While Texas may struggle to stop the Aggies’ rushing attack, they’ve demonstrated resilience on third-down defense, ranking 10th. A&M’s efficient play on third and fourth downs (44.2%) will be a significant test for Texas.

Special Teams and Field Position

Texas slightly edges A&M in net field position, with a 3.59-yard advantage compared to A&M’s 3.34. The Longhorns’ defense may also capitalize on A&M’s higher Risk-Reward Optimization (RROE) of 13.7%, which shows a greater willingness for high-risk plays, compared to Texas’ more conservative -5.7%.

The last time these two team’s matched up, it came down to a field goal, ultimately Texas would win with a kick by Justin Tucker.

Ultimately, the beauty of this game goes beyond the stats. This matchup embodies the fierce pride and enduring loyalty of both fanbases. For Longhorns fans, this is a chance to take over Kyle Field, showing that Texas pride travels strong. For the Aggies, it’s a chance to defend their home turf and remind Texas that this rivalry isn’t just about the scoreline—it’s about legacy.

With Texas clinging to a slim statistical edge and both teams bringing their best, fans on both sides should prepare for a game that could come down to the wire. This is a rivalry fueled by passion, and when the dust settles, it’s the heart and the pride of each team that will determine who walks away with the bragging rights. Buckle up, because this one is bound to be unforgettable.

It Just Means More.