In many leagues, week 16 is the championship week. If you are still playing meaningful fantasy football at this point in the season, congratulations to you. Week 16 can be difficult to navigate. Teams that are clearly out of the running tend to run young players with higher snap counts than the usual starters which can mess with your starting lineup if you are counting on good players from weaker teams. As such, if given a decision between two players that you view as equivalent, I’m starting the player who has something to play for to give me the extra insurance that I’m going to get the points that I am counting on. Weather also can play a factor as we saw in Kansas City where Denver went from prince to pauper almost overnight.
Linebacker Plays
With Denzel Perryman returning to the lineup for the Chargers after a one-game team suspension, Drue Tranquill returned to IDP purgatory with all of the other Chargers LBs. Tranquill received 55% of the snaps against Minnesota and turned in 4 total tackles. Thomas Davis was the only Chargers LB to out snap him at 83%. I’d stay away from the Chargers LB corps until you are given a reason to buy back in. Craig Robertson gave way to a returning AJ Klein in the Saints lineup. Those that were able to get Klein in over Robertson were treated to 6 total tackles and a half sack in a blowout win for the Saints. Finally, Danny Trevathan did not suit up despite rumblings that he might. In fact, he didn’t even practice at all over the course of the week. I think that Trevathan likely doesn’t play this season given that the Bears are officially eliminated. Nick Kwiatkoski played every snap and scored 5 total tackles, a sack and a PD against the Packers. Kevin Pierre-Louis elevated to 80% of the snaps and scored a respectable 5 solo tackles.
Will Compton OAK LB – 4-3 MLB Value: LB2 – LB3
The Raiders are a bit of the dumpster fire right now on defense and the adjustments made by the coaching staff signify just how unhappy they have been with the results so far. The most impactful change to the defense from an IDP perspective was career reserve LB Will Compton, a guy who was a street free agent until week 8, being elevated to full-time MLB. Compton played every snap for the Raiders against the Jaguars, logging 9 total tackles. Compton is far from elite talent but full-time linebackers are hard to find these days. He is virtually unowned and the asking price should be fairly low. The Raiders visit the Chargers in week 16. The Chargers are offering an average of over 17 fantasy points per game in their last three games to full-time LBs. In week 10, Tahir Whitehead logged 22 fantasy points against the Chargers in Oakland. Compton should be a priority add for your team if you are counting on Whitehead or if you have any holes in your LB corps.
KJ Wright / Cody Barton SEA LB – 4-3 OLB Value: LB2 – LB3 (dynasty stash)
A few things are playing into this call. First off, Mychal Kendricks has missed the last two Seahawks games with a hamstring injury that I expect to keep him out of week 16 against the Cardinals. Second, Bobby Wagner suffered an ankle injury that kept him out of the fourth quarter of Seattle’s Week 15 win over the Panthers. While the majority of reports suggest that Wagner will play, I’d bet that Pete Carroll is cautious with his start linebacker so close to the postseason. Don’t be surprised if Wagner doesn’t play every snap, especially if Seattle gets up early. Finally, the Seahawks are rolling three linebackers over 80% usage in their last two games with Cody Barton being the primary beneficiary. With third safety Quandre Diggs likely out of week 16’s contest with an ankle injury, look for more base defense to continue to be the theme for the Seahawks. The Cardinals seem to be finding their identity as a running team as of late so I think that plays into a few more tackles for the Seattle LBs. Barton is a rookie third-round pick this year out of Utah that seems to be finding some traction in the starting lineup. KJ Wright is signed through 2020 but is a decent cap savings to Seattle if he is cut. Barton may be the heir apparent in 2021 or sooner.
Jahlani Tavai DET LB – 4-3 MLB Value: LB2 – LB3 (dynasty stash)
On Saturday, the Lions ended Jarrad Davis’ season by placing him on injured reserve with ankle and knee injuries. Rookie second-round pick Jahlani Tavai stepped in to start at middle linebacker in week 15 against the Buccaneers, playing 93% of the snaps to lead all Lions LBs. His 5 total tackles and an interception were a fine showing to his first look at starter snaps. It’s worth noting that Christian Jones also missed the contest with a shoulder injury but is likely to be back in week 16. I expect his return to impact Jalen Reeves-Maybin more so than Tavai however. Week 16 brings a matchup against the Broncos in Denver. While the matchup isn’t the best, Tavai should have high volume snaps in the matchup. Whether he’s trying out for an outside linebacker role or an eventual takeover of Davis down the road, the Lions need to try to figure out what they have in the youngster out of Hawaii.
Defensive Lineman Plays
Vinny Curry disappointed owners with his output against the Redskins as the reserve DE did increase his snap count significantly to 70% with Derek Barnett out with an ankle injury but only posted 2 solo tackles. Deeper league option Rasheem Green rewarded owners with 2 solo tackles and a sack on 63% usage with both Jadeveon Clowney and Ezekiel Ansah out with injury.
Akiem Hicks CHI DE – 3-4 DE Value: DL2
I am a big believer in defensive linemen that can make tackles in the running game as well as offer me some sack upside. Akiem Hicks is a guy that can do both. Activated from injured reserve in week 15, the former Saint logged 4 solo tackles on 61% usage. He showed no ill effects from the elbow injury that cost him the previous 8 games. Hicks and the Bears host the Chiefs in week 16. If I’m being honest, it’s not a great matchup from a run defense point of view but the Hicks still has sack and big-play upside regardless of matchup. I’d nab him if I was struggling for options.
Vic Beasley Jr ATL DE – 4-3 DE Value: DL1 – DL2
Don’t look now but the Falcons might be showing out to be the team that many thought they’d be much earlier in the season. While it’s too late for Atlanta’s playoff hopes, players are always being evaluated and they are playing for 2020 jobs. Vic Beasley falls squarely into that category. Once thought of as the next great Falcon pass rusher after a 15.5 sack campaign in 2016, Vic Beasley has struggled mightily at times. He is now playing out his fifth-year option for the Falcons and will be an unrestricted free agent next year. The good news for Beasley is that he has more sacks now (7) than each of his previous two seasons and is coming off of three sacks in his last two games. The Jaguars visit Atlanta in week 16 and aren’t the pinnacle of pass protection in the league with an average of three sacks per game allowed in their last four games. The Falcons are historically a better team at home so I’m trying to ride the hot hand in Beasley.
Defensive Back Plays
Jeff Heath returned to the lineup for the Cowboys, rendering the Darian Thompson recommendation a bad one. Heath is not a good source of tackles most games whereas Thompson proved to be so there was a net loss of IDP opportunity with Heath back in the starting lineup. Damontae Kazee was solid in an upset win over the 49ers with 7 total tackles on 98% usage. Ricardo Allen was not good in the same contest with 2 total tackles on 78% usage. Finally, both Tracy Walker (7 total tackles, PD) and Tavon Wilson (6 solo tackles) were serviceable against the Buccaneers on 100% and 92% usage respectively. Honestly, given the matchup, I expected more but I’ll take the double-digit fantasy outputs.
Sam Beal NYG CB – 3-4 CB Value: DB2 – DB3
While not exactly a rookie corner rule application, Sam Beal might as well be. After the Giants waived starting corner Janoris Jenkins due to offensive language he used in an altercation with a fan on social media, Sam Beal was tabbed for starting duty. The undrafted second-year pro turned in a team-high 11 total tackles to go with a PD. Beal is not top CB material and Terry McLaurin probably gives him plenty of tackle opportunity as well when the Giants visit the Redskins in week 16. I’m not overthinking this. Beal has played every snap but one in the last two Giants games and has 18 total tackles during that time.
Texans Secondary HOU DB – 3-4 CB/S Value: DB2 – DB3
Big play hunters who are willing to gamble should pay attention to this one. The Texans visit the Buccaneers in week 16. Jameis Winston is leading the NFL in the following categories: Attempts, yards and interceptions. He is second behind Lamar Jackson in touchdown passes. The Buccaneers are bottom five in rushing yards per game. All of this adds up to Winston doing in week 16 what he has done all season; throw it around the field. Justin Reid, Tashaun Gipson and Bradley Roby would be my recommendations in order of preference for both tackles and interception upside given the opponent in town and their usage over the past few games.
Sheldrick Redwine / Damarious Randall CLE S – 4-3 S Value: DB2 – DB3
While I was a week too premature on him when I recommended him earlier this season, Sheldrick Redwine has 22 total tackles and 2 PDs over his last three games where he has been a virtual every-down player for Cleveland. Damarious Randall has been in and out of the Browns’ lineup this season but is coming off of an 8 total tackle effort against the Cardinals on every down usage in week 15. This is a simple matchup play for would-be IDP owners. The Ravens visit the Browns in week 16 looking to secure the AFC. Baltimore is the hottest team in the league on offense and has been exceptional on defense as well. I expect plenty of work for the Browns’ secondary as both passes and runs make it to the second level.