How Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa fared under pressure in 2020

How quarterbacks fare under pressure is an important part of their development. Let’s look at how these three rookies fared.

In November of last year I thought I came across something profound.

In a piece titled “Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and the rookie quarterback non-negotiables” I made the case that young passers coming into the NFL needed to have two traits under their belt to have any early success: Mobility, and the ability to place throws against leveraged defenders.

During the discussion of the mobility piece I argued the following:

From the athleticism needed to evade the pressure and climb the pocket, to the vision to find this receiver, to the athletic ability to make this throw, Tagovailoa shows you the other end of the quarterback mobility spectrum. This is an extremely athletic play and throw from the rookie.

The point is this. Given the athleticism on the defensive side of the football in today’s NFL, a rookie quarterback needs to be somewhere on the spectrum of mobility to be successful early. One does not need to be Tagovailoa – or even Herbert – to check that box and meet that non-negotiable, but having the ability to just create space with your feet, akin to Burrow, is a must.

Implicit in this discussion is the idea that mobility as a passer allows you to evade pressure in the pocket, which you are going to face in the NFL. How you respond to that pressure might mean the difference between success and failure.

Over the next few weeks here at Touchdown Wire I’ll be diving deeper into how quarterbacks handle pressure, and to kick things off I wanted to dive into how these three rookies fared under duress in 2020. Thanks to data from both Pro Football Reference as well as Ben Baldwin’s RBSDM.com we can dig into this on a per-game basis.

Let’s start with Burrow. Thanks to data from Baldwin’s website we know that perhaps his best game last season came in Week 7, in a 37-34 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Despite coming out on the losing side, Burrow completed 35 of 47 passes for 406 yards and three touchdowns, along with a single interception. Using Baldwin’s data we know that Burrow posted his highest Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Above Expectation Composite (EPA+CPOE) of 0.254 of the 2020 season in that loss. His EPA/play of 0.411 was his second-highest of the season.

We also know that in that game Burrow was blitzed 12 times, the fourth-lowest number in a game last season, and pressured on just 15.4% of his snaps, thanks to data from PFR.

So now let’s look at what Burrow did when he faced more pressure in the pocket. In Week 10 the Cincinnati Bengals traveled to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. During that game Burrow was blitzed 17 times (tied for third-most in a game last season) and was pressured on 12 plays, or 27.30% of his attempts (that pressure percentage was the third-most he faced last year). The result? Burrow posted an EPA+CPOE of -0.028 (his lowest of the season) and an EPA/Play of -0.252 (his second lowest of the season).

The game where Burrow faced the most pressure came in a Week 5 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. According to PFR Burrow was blitzed 21 times (the single most blitzes he faced in a game last year) and was pressured on a whopping 48.70% of his snaps, again the most pressure he faced in a game as a rookie. The result? Not only a loss, but perhaps Burrow’s worst game of the season as the young QB posted an EPA/Play of -0.318, his worst mark of the year.

In fact, in terms of EPA/Play Burrow’s worst four games of the season (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles) came in the four games where he was pressured the most in terms of percentage. We already outlined the Ravens game and the Steelers game (48.70% and 27.30%) but in the Chargers game Burrow was pressured on 25.60% of his snaps (fourth-most last year) and posted an EPA/Play of -0.142. In the Eagles game he was pressured on 38.50% of his snaps (second-most last season) and he posted an EPA/Play of 0.089.

The four games where Burrow was pressured the least were some of his best games of the season. In addition to the Browns game already outlined, Burrow was pressured on just 14.30% of his plays against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, and posted an EPA/Play of 0.362, his third-best mark of the year. His best game of the season, in terms of EPA/Play, came in Week 8 against the Tennessee Titans. In that outing he was pressured on just 13.20% of his snaps, the lowest of the year. His resulting EPA/Play of 0.487 was his best mark as a rookie.

Of course, this all begs the question about the Bengals’ decision with the fifth-overall selection, but we can leave that debate for another time…

Let’s turn to Tagovailoa, who took over as the Miami Dolphins starting quarterback early in the season. The data illustrates that the Dolphins QB also struggled when pressured last season. Remember those two games where Tagovailoa was benched? (Week 11 at the Denver Broncos and Week 16 at the Las Vegas Raiders for reference). Those were the two games where Tagovailoa was pressured the most, in terms of percentage of plays. The Raiders pressured him on 22.20% of snaps, second-most last season, and Tagovailoa posted and EPA/Play of -0.18, his third-worst mark of the year.

Against Denver in Week 11, Tagovailoa was pressured on 42.30% of his snaps — the most in a game last year — and posted an EPA/Play of -0.283, his second-worst mark of the 2020 campaign.

Interestingly enough Tagovailoa’s worst game last year, in terms of EPA/Play, came in his first start. Against the Los Angeles Rams Tagovailoa posted an EPA/Play of -0.400, yet he was pressured on just 12.50% of his plays.

Stripping out his short appearance against the New York Jets in Week 6, Tagovailoa’s best EPA/Play in a game last year came in just his second start, against the Arizona Cardinals. In that outing Tagovailoa posted an EPA/Play of 0.377.

He was also pressured on just 8.80% of his plays.

Let’s close this out with a look at Herbert, who took over as the starting quarterback for the Chargers under strange circumstances in Week 2 but would end the season as the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. You might also remember the game that put Herbert on the map, a Week 4 outing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

In that game, Herbert posted an EPA/Play of 0.454, his fourth-best mark of the season.

He was also pressured on a staggering 58.60% of his snaps, the most in a single game last season.

Herbert did have a clunker of a game in Week 13 against the New England Patriots, posting an EPA/Play of -0.503 when pressured at the second-highest rate he faced all season. But he fared better overall against pressure then his classmates. Against the Raiders in Week 15 Herbert was pressured on 29.40% of his snaps (above the season average of 28.80% he faced on the year) and posted his best single-game EPA/Play of the year, a mark of 0.711.

This is one of those cases where the stats indeed match the film. Most observers were impressed with how well the rookie handled life under pressure last season, beginning with his debut:

Herbert’s ability to handle pressure, perhaps best exemplified in a loss to the eventual Super Bowl champions, propelled him to post-season honors and perhaps set him apart from his classmates last season. Life as a young QB in the NFL is in part a quest to navigate pressure, and Herbert handled that well. In the next piece we’ll dive into perhaps some roadmaps for development, looking at how the 2019 class fared in this area from Year One to Year Two.