In 2022, the Cleveland Browns went all-in on a bet that could hamper the franchise for a good long time. When they traded first-round picks in 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as the 104th overall pick in 2022, a third-round pick in 2023, and a fourth-pick in 2024 for a 2024 sixth-round pick and former Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson… well, it’s a franchise-defining move, but what that means, we have no idea. Watson’s NFL disciplinary hearing in the wake of a torrent of sexual assault lawsuits (many of which have been settled) happens this upcoming Tuesday, and word is that the league will be aiming for a suspension that lasts at least the entire 2022 season, if not indefinitely.
So, that’s a lot for a guy who will play for you… who knows when. In the interim, the Browns have completely alienated Baker Mayfield, the quarterback they selected with the first overall pick in the 2028 draft out of Oklahoma. The likelihood of Mayfield playing for the Browns in 2022 and beyond is somewhere between null and void; should Watson be out of the equation, backup Jacoby Brissett is the likely starter. The Browns have not traded Mayfield yet. The hangup there seems to be the amount of salary the trading team would be willing to take on. Mayfield is set to make a guaranteed $18.858 million in 2022, the final year of his rookie contract, and he’ll obviously want a new contract in his new home. The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks have been tagged as the most likely destinations.
Setting aside the mess the Browns have put themselves in with Watson and his new, fully-guaranteed, $230 million contract that goes through the 2026 season, there’s the specific issue of Mayfield’s future as a starting quarterback, and where he fits best. After two NFL seasons in which he showed some promise and a lot of exasperating plays, Mayfield enjoyed a watershed season in 2020 — including the postseason, he completed 349 of 557 passes for 4,030 yards, 2,376 air yards, 30 touchdowns, nine interceptions, an ANY/A of 6.9, a passer rating of 95.7. an EPA of 49.17, and a Positive Play Rate of 49.0%. This put him in at least the top half of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks in every category, though he was in an offense that didn’t always play to his strengths.
The follow-up season, which got the Browns headed down that fractious Watson path, was not nearly as productive. Mayfield worked through a ton of injuries and more dysfunction in the passing game, completing 253 of 418 passes for 3,010 yards, 1,571 air yards, 17 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, an ANY/A of 5.4, a passer rating of 83.1, an EPA of -59.03, and a Positive Play Rate of 43.2. Mayfield had gone from top-half to bottom-third in one season, and though it wasn’t all his fault (given the injuries, it wasn’t mostly his fault), but we are left with the realities of things.
So, with that in mind, and with the goal to give an honest picture of what Mayfield can offer another team, we’re going to look far more at Mayfield’s 2020 season, assume his 2021 was a negative outlier based on injury, and project things forward from there.
How can a new NFL team help Baker Mayfield become the best possible version of himself? We have a few thoughts.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated).