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It’s unlikely (read: highly unlikely [read: far-fetched] {read: nigh impossible}), but hear us out.
Trevor Lawrence: San Francisco 49er.
ESPN’s Rich Cimini wrote a story about the possibility of Lawrence, the consensus top quarterback in the 2021 NFL draft and the very likely No. 1 overall pick, eschewing the chance to play for the New York Jets should they wind up with the top selection. That’s a fascinating situation! Let’s look too far into it.
It’s important to note the scenario where Lawrence either demands a trade a la Eli Manning in 2004, or goes back to Clemson for his final college season, isn’t on the radar in any meaningful way. This type of thing seems to happen every draft where rumors surface of a top prospect not wanting to be drafted by a given team. It rarely becomes an issue. (Remember when Joe Burrow wasn’t going to play for the Bengals?)
But what if it was different this time? (It won’t be). It could mean the 49ers wind up with Lawrence. Let’s head to 49ers Fan-tasy land for a moment. Please sanitize your hands, wear a mask and maintain proper social distance. Thank you:
First, the Jets have to pick first and want to draft a quarterback. There’s not a guarantee that New York has the top pick, although their 0-13 start indicates they’re headed that direction. Any given Sunday though, am I right? Sam Darnold’s tenure hasn’t been stellar, but the team’s overall failures can’t be traced back to him. They may sign him to a cheap-ish extension and see what he can do with a better team and different coaching staff around him. Since those scenarios obliterates our entire hypothetical, we have conveniently struck them from the record.
Next, the 49ers need to take car of business and lose out to finish 5-11. Any win in their final three games puts them at six victories and effectively knocks them out of the running for a top-five pick. What a weird thing to write about last year’s Super Bowl runner up. Anyway, more on this later.
Next, they need a whole slew of teams around them in the NFL draft order to win at least one of their final few games. This is probably their biggest obstacle in the hypothetical world where Lawrence uses his leverage to forego being selected by the Jets. San Francisco needs eight teams in front of them to win at least one, and some of them they’ll need a couple victories from. The end result would be the 49ers holding onto the No. 5 pick by the time the draft rolls around.
We’re assuming the Jets wouldn’t be interested in trading too far back, especially if they want a quarterback. If San Francisco winds up at No. 12, where they’re slated to pick going into Week 15, it’s hard to see the Jets entertaining a move down 11 spots.
It’s equally difficult to imagine the 49ers putting together a trade package that outbids teams above them trying to move up. That’s why losing out is important. Nevertheless, let’s suppose for the sake of this idea San Francisco finishes with the fifth pick. The Jets would be No. 1, followed by the Jaguars, Bengals, Chargers and 49ers.
A top-five pick makes it easier for the 49ers to put together an offer that contends with the Jags, who could also be on the hunt for a quarterback. With the Bengals and Chargers both set at quarterback, the difference between the move to No. 2 and the move to No. 5 wouldn’t give them a drastically different slate of options at quarterback.
To move up from No. 5 to No.1, the 49ers will have to pony up – which the front office may be wary of doing given all the holes free agency and their minimal cap space will create. If it means drafting Lawrence though, San Francisco would be happy to have to figure out the rest.
That trade would probably be something like the No. 5 pick, a 2022 first and a couple mid-round picks in 2021. San Francisco could be sitting with upwards of 11 selections by the draft, so they’ll have some capital to work with. Essentially everything is on the table here because a player like Lawrence could immediately throw the 49ers’ championship window wide open for the next decade-plus, and any notion of a conservative 2021 draft would soar out the newly-open window.
With the first pick in hand, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan would stiff-arm Roger Goodell to announce the Lawrence selection himself.
Okay, back to reality.
One potential real thing we saw in 49ers Fan-tasy land is the 49ers taking a quarterback in the first round of this year’s draft. They already overlooked a possible franchise quarterback in 2017, and that’s a mistake they won’t want to make again if they don’t think Jimmy Garoppolo is the long-term answer. With their roster in a more stable, contention-ready place, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities they identify a quarterback they believe is the future of the franchise in this draft.
It’s also not a crazy notion to believe they’d trade up to select that player. If Garoppolo is not the guy, they’ll need to find a young, cost-controlled option there as soon as possible since the available free agents will either be a downgrade from Garoppolo or too expensive.
It is crazy, however, to believe the player they draft would be Lawrence.
After all, Cimini wasn’t reporting Lawrence doesn’t want to play for the Jets, and he even issued reasons why it’d be beneficial for the QB to want to play in New York. It’s also worth noting the Jets’ laughing-stock coaching staff will likely get an overhaul after their disastrous 2020 campaign. The right head coach hire could easily put the Jets on the map as a desirable destination for a rookie quarterback.
It’s also hard to envision all the necessary things happen for San Francisco to climb into the top five. They need to lose out and get a lot of help in front of them in the draft order. It turns out there are a lot of really bad teams in an NFL season impacted by a pandemic.
A Kyle Shanahan-Trevor Lawrence pairing is fun to think about. It would be a match made in football heaven that’d make the 49ers an NFC favorite for a long time. However, barring a series of exceedingly unlikely (see the first set of parentheticals) events, it’s not anything close to realistic.
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