The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays cap off the AL Championship Series with Game 7 Saturday night at San Diego’s Petco Park. First pitch is set for 8:37 p.m. ET and Tampa Bay will bat last as the home team at the neutral venue. Below, we analyze the Astros-Rays Game 7 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Best-of-seven series: The Astros have fought their way back to force Game 7 after the Rays took Games 1, 2 and 3.
Astros vs. Rays: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. vs. RHP Charlie Morton
McCullers logged a 3.93 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in 11 regular-season starts (55 IP).
- Allowed three unearned runs in the opening inning of Game 2 and then hung zeroes until allowing a fourth run on a two-out home run in the 7th inning. Has allowed 5 ER (9 total) over 11 IP this October and owns a 2.93 ERA over 43 career postseason innings.
- Has held current Tampa Bay bats to a whiff-laden .459 OPS with no walks and a .121 ISO (60 plate appearances).
Morton notched a 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 9 regular-season starts (38 IP).
- Pitched five scoreless frames in Game 2 (5H, 1 BB, 5 K). Has allowed just 1 ER in 10 playoff innings this fall and owns a 3.16 ERA over 51 1/3 career postseason innings.
- Current Houston bats own a .799 OPS against Morton.
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Astros vs. Rays: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated 11:30 a.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
This pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, a contest which Tampa Bay took by a 4-2 score. The McCullers-Morton battle was well-pitched on both ends. The play here is McCullers with a fade of the too-far-over-their-skis Rays, but McCullers needs to wriggle his change-up (a pitch Tampa Bay struggles against) and curve (a pitch they hammer) in perhaps 6 or more innings.
Going back into September regular-season starts, McCullers has been the more consistent of these two starters, and he has swing-and-miss, no-hit stuff that could avoid unlucky contact for longer stretches. The more talented Tampa Bay bullpen is in better shape to do some heavy lifting in the later innings of the game.
BACK HOUSTON (+105).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Astros -1.5 (+155) | Rays +1.5 (-189)
Avoid the juice and SKIP THIS ONE. The overall calculus of the game sets up for the Astros and the Over if you were inclined to line-watch for a Houston tag near +165 or so.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under went 5-0 through the first five games of this ALCS, and then Friday’s game set up as a solid zag (and did hit the Over). Saturday’s tilt doesn’t have as much lean but that lean is toward OVER 8 (-115).
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