The Green Bay Packers (7-1) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (4-4) Sunday for their Week 9 meeting at Arrowhead Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Packers vs. Chiefs odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Obviously, the major storyline entering this Packers-Chiefs showdown is the absence of reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers who will be sidelined Sunday after testing positive for COVID-19 this week.
Green Bay is coming off an impressive 24-21 upset of a then-undefeated Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football last week.
The Packers won outright as 6.5-point road underdogs despite missing superstar Davante Adams and No. 2 WR Allen Lazard who tested positive for COVID-19. Green Bay sits at 7-1 ATS and 2-6 O/U.
K.C. narrowly beat the lowly New York Giants 20-17 as 10.5-point home favorites on Monday Night Football in Week 8. The Chiefs continue to be their own worst enemy as K.C. turned the ball over twice vs. New York and committed 12 penalties. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
Packers at Chiefs odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Packers +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Chiefs -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Packers +7.5 (-120) | Chiefs -7.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Packers at Chiefs key injuries
Packers
- QB Aaron Rodgers (health and safety protocols) out
Chiefs
- RT Mike Remmers (knee) out
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Packers at Chiefs odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Chiefs 26, Packers 20
Money line
I was ready to take K.C.’s money line which was priced at nearly even money before the Rodgers-COVID news broke. However, the Chiefs (-350) are unplayable at this number.
The Packers rallying behind a backup quarterback against a Chiefs team that’s been bad this season wouldn’t be a shocker. But, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t entertaining K.C. as a teaser leg.
PASS.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the PACKERS +7.5 (-120) as more of a fade against a Chiefs -7.5 (+100) that shouldn’t be laying more than 7 points vs. a quality team.
Of course, the loss of Rodgers is awful for Green Bay, hence the lopsided pricing. But, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is probably the most underrated playcaller in the NFL.
Since LaFleur was hired by Green Bay in 2019, the Packers are 33-7 overall and this is a great spot for them.
For instance, Green Bay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog and 7-4 ATS when playing with a rest advantage since 2019. Also, K.C. is just 9-11-1 ATS as a home favorite over that span and 15-17-1 ATS following a win.
The football-based logic for my “LEAN” to the PACKERS +7.5 (-120) is Green Bay’s epic run blocking edge in the trenches. Packers RB Aaron Jones is one of the best in the business and Green Bay could certainly control the pace behind a dominant rushing effort.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 47.5 (-108) for a tiny wager if at all because we are getting to the party late. Once the Rodgers’ news broke, the market hammered the Under, which steamed the total from the mid-50s to the current number.
There’s still a smidge of value in the Under for Packers-Chiefs because K.C.’s offense has been mistake-prone all season. Green Bay should be draining the clock to avoid a shootout without the NFL’s best gunslinger (Rodgers).
Week 9 best bets
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