Fox did not plan for this when it won the right to broadcast the 2022 World Cup.
Back in 2011, the network paid more than $400 million to show the 2018 and 2022 World Cup in the United States, along with the 2015 and 2019 Women’s World Cup and other international tournaments.
Qatar was awarded the 2022 World Cup with a summer bid but in a classic bait-and-switch than just about anyone could see coming, the tournament was inevitably moved to the winter.
Fox, understandably, was not happy.
Rather than being broadcast during its slower summer months, the 2022 World Cup would now be up against Fox’s NFL, college football and college basketball properties. To stave off a lawsuit, FIFA gave Fox the rights to the 2026 World Cup with a no-bid contract that saved the network an extraordinary amount of money.
But time (and a no-bid deal for the ratings bonanza that 2026 will be) has given Fox Sports a new outlook on its winter World Cup broadcast.
“I don’t see it as a competition, I see that as a compliment,” World Cup lead host Rob Stone told Pro Soccer Wire of Fox’s crowded schedule. “I think all those entities work together to really kind of create that perfect storm of sports viewing over the course of the holidays.”
He added: “I think the World Cup is going to actually benefit from college football and the NFL going on, with the cross promotion and the fact that everything is heating up in the football world as it’s also heating up in our soccer world as well.”
Though Fox is outwardly bullish, the truth is it’s hard to predict exactly how viewership is going to shake out.
There is some possible precedent, though. Speaking to Pro Soccer Wire, Dr. Jon Lewis, founder of Sports Media Watch, compared the potential World Cup ratings to the pandemic-altered year of 2020, when almost every sporting event was moved to a different time of year than normal. He also brought up the 2000 Olympics in Sydney, which took place in September rather than the summer.
All suffered from lower-than-usual ratings.
“We have more than enough examples of sporting events taking a meaningful hit in a different time of year that I would certainly not be bullish on the [World Cup] numbers,” Lewis said.
Part of the issue stems from Fox being unable to show all 64 games on its broadcast network. 30 games will be on FS1, including most of the high-profile weekend slots as the NFL and college football bump the World Cup to cable. There will even be two knockout round games on FS1.
“They’re not going to do particularly well one would imagine, and then that’s going to drag down the average,” Lewis said of the games on FS1.
Kickoff times also play a major role in an international event’s success in drawing viewers. This World Cup isn’t perfect in that department, especially for west coasters, but it could be worse.
Seven matches will take place at a very unfriendly 5 a.m. ET kickoff time, but the rest of the games will be at 8 a.m., 10 a.m., 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. ET.
“Middle of the night is obviously is the worst that you can do,” Lewis said. “I think morning certainly is workable. We see things like Formula 1 do well in the morning.
“Some of the biggest markets in this country for soccer are in the Eastern Time Zone, and so it’s not going to be overwhelmingly onerous for them. Maybe on the west coast it will be a bit tougher with those time slots, but I think all in all, it’s about as good as you can get in terms of a World Cup on the other side of the world.”
Notably, all three U.S. national team group matches will take place at 2 p.m. ET, including the Black Friday showdown against England.
“I think you’re going to see some staggering World Cup numbers,” Stone said. “That Black Friday game between the U.S. and England very well could shatter all World Cup group match viewing records.”
Lewis concurs, saying the USA-England game will have “sky-high ratings potential” and also noting that Fox will carry two games on Thanksgiving Day (Portugal-Ghana and Brazil-Serbia) that will also have the opportunity to do big numbers.
Those individual wins will help drive up an average that could be adversely impacted by non-ideal kickoff times and too many matches shunted off to cable.
In the end, the World Cup ratings could come down to a major factor that is completely out of Fox’s control.
“It’s an unprecedented situation and Fox is trying to make the best of it,” Lewis said. “I think a lot of its going to depend on how the U.S. does. If you have a long run by the U.S., it doesn’t really matter what the time slots are.”
[lawrence-related id=8855,7860,7824]