Football fans are going to see a lot of “I told you so” tweets on Thursday. Rotoworld, one of the internet’s best sources for collecting fact-based football rumors about individual players put together two back-to-back snippets signifying a victory for the “RBs don’t matter” contingent of NFL analysis.
The first, claims the Arizona Cardinals are planning on releasing David Johnson. The second is that the Los Angeles Rams are looking to trade Todd Gurley. The original reports both came from ESPN, Josh Weinfuss and Lindsey Thiry, respectively. These men are two of the four running backs which teams chose to ignore the trend against paying lead running backs and gave big-boy contracts to over the last two offseasons. The No. 5 paid back in the league, Davonte Freeman, averages $8.2 million a year on his deal. The top four back average at least $13 million. The others are the New York Jets’ Leveon Bell and of course the Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott who checks in at $15 million per. The running back’s don’t matter community are going to revel in being proven right on Thursday, that the contracts doled out to these two men were foolish based on a myriad of factors.
Running backs wear down. The position is fungible with late-round or undrafted talent. Running the ball is a less efficient method of offense than passing the ball.
All of this is correct. I repeat, all of this is correct.
The natural connecting of dots will lead many to believe this is evidence the Cowboys made the wrong move by giving Elliott the $90 million extension last offseason. In my humble estimation, that couldn’t be the furthest thing from the truth. I think these Gurley and Johnson situations prove how special Elliott is, and that he was the only running back worthy of the investment.
Now, this stance could be proven wrong as early as September 2020. Elliott could theoretically fall off in a way that makes me look foolish for penning this piece, and others, where I looked to justify the Dallas Cowboys investment in Elliott. I’ll be alright if it does; I’ve been on the right side of predictions and proclamations enough that I could withstand a very substantial ding on my record. When Elliott had a down – by his standards – 2018 season, I scoffed at those who said it was proof he wasn’t to be paid and I advocated for the Cowboys giving him a sizable deal.
2019 proved that correct. He needs to have similar seasons through 2021 to fully validate that claim; just two more seasons.
Here’s why.
Elliott vs His Peers
To put it succinctly, while all of the running backs in Elliott’s tax bracket were regarded as among the league’s best when they received their deals, none of them had the consistency of Elliott.
From the moment Elliott stepped in the league, he has been a dominant and dependable force. Day 1.
Look at the careers of Johnson, Gurley and Bell. None of them can say they’ve never had a eyebrow-raising season or had their durability questioned prior to earning their big deals.
Elliott is the only one able to make that claim.
When investing big money in the position of running back, where wear and tear are obvious concerns, these things matter. It’s why the Cowboys were smart not to give out such a deal to DeMarco Murray, the back Elliott replaced in the Cowboys’ pantheon of franchise backs.
Let’s look at Johnson first.
A third-round pick, Johnson was a backup for much of 2015, but had a nice yard-per-carry average of 4.6 in 16 games and five starts and scored six touchdowns. He exploded in a lead role in 2016 for 1,239 yards and a whopping 16 TDs. But in 2017, Johnson dislocated his wrist after just 11 carries and was lost for the season.
The following summer, Arizona gave him his fat deal, three years, $39 million. Off of one season of being a star and one lost season, they gave him the mint.
That’s just stupid regardless of the position.
Now let’s look at Gurley.
Gurley also entered the league in 2015, but with the fanfare of being the first first-round RB since 2012 and the No. 10 selection to boot.
Many forget now, but Gurley came into the league coming off a late-season ACL tear at the University of Georgia. He missed his first two NFL games out of precaution. Later in the year, he missed a third game due to turf toe. Overall, he turned in a great season, rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 scores.
The following year was a WTF moment, though. Gurley played all 16 games but amassed just 885 yards on a 3.2 ypc average. Sean McVay came in the next year, revolutionized the Rams’ offense and Gurley soared to the tune of 1,305 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns on the ground, and hauled in 64 catches for another 788 yards and six scores. A 2,000-yard season earned him the league’s largest RB contract, four years, $57.5 million.
But the Rams paid a player who had a devastating leg injury his final college year, and a season where he didn’t look special, like at all.
Risky.
What about Bell?
A second-round pick in 2013, Bell had a foot problem that forced him to miss the first three games. He then came out with a more-than-solid rookie campaign, starting all 13 games he played and running for 860 yards and eight touchdowns, while catching 45 passes. He came into his own the next season, playing all 16 games and gaining 1,361 yards on the ground and scoring eight times. He may have been a better receiver than running back. He caught a mind-boggling 83 catches, many from in the slot or out wide.
Well on his way to a repeat performance, Bell ripped his MCL in the sixth game of 2015, missing the rest of the season.
In 2016, Bell missed the first three games of the season for drug-test violations. He still had a remarkable season with 1,268 ground yards and 75 receptions. Out of contract, the Steelers placed the franchise tag on Bell. He played, he shined, but the team was still not giving him the contract he was demanding.
Bell sat out the entire 2017 season when Pittsburgh tagged him again. That money was tied up in their salary cap for most of the season, so they learned their lesson and didn’t tag him in 2018, making him a free agent.
The Jets reworded him, despite the multiple injuries, with a four-year, $52.5 million deal in 2019. According to several media reports throughout the year, Bell and Jets head coach Adam Gase did not see eye to eye, at all as he rushed for just 789 yards and three scores over 15 games.
You know who got his contract without ever having a down year, or ever missing a game due to injury in the five seasons prior? Ezekiel Elliott.
Elliott played all 28 of Ohio State’s games in 2014 and 2015. He’s played in every meaningful game he was eligible for since being drafted by the Cowboys, sitting out the final games for rest in 2016 and 2018 and missing six games due to suspension in 2015.
He led the league in rushing yards in 2016 (1,631) and 2018 (1,434) and led the league in yards-per game the year he dealt with the supension (98.3). He finally became a part of the passing game in 2018 with 77 receptions.
At the time of his deal, the only concern was whether or not he’d have another conduct violation and guess what? Players aren’t paid when suspended. They have to give back the allocated portion of a signing bonus. Financially, missed games due to suspension are wholly different than injury. Teams still pay a player when injured, it’s sunk cost. They get a rebate for suspensions, i.e. no financial risk.
There is literally nothing similar about the circumstances that led to the huge contracts doled out to Elliott, Johnson, Gurley and Bell, except their size and the position.
Elliott’s contract details
Elliott’s deal was a monster, though. The shock value of seeing a running back get a contract for $90 million is awe-inspiring. But if you’ve been reading me at all for the last seven of my 10 years covering the Cowboys, you should know by now that the sticker price is irrelevant for contract.
6 New Years, $90M, 8-yr, $102.9M total2019 Signing Bonus $7.5M, 2020 Option Bonus $13M |
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| Year | Base Salary | Total Bonus | Cap Hit |
| 2019 | $752.137 | $1,500,000 | $6,339.653 ($4,087,516 from rook deal) |
| 2020 | $6.800,000 | $4,100,000 | $10.9 million |
| 2021 | $9,600,000* | $4,100,000 | $13.7 million |
| 2022 | $9,725,000 | $4,100,000 | $16.5 million |
| 2023 | $10,900,000 | $4,100,000 | $15 million |
| 2024 | $10,000,000 | $2,600,000 | $12.6 million |
| 2025 | $15,400,000 | ||
| 2026 | $16,600,000 | ||
| TOTAL | $82,452,137 $7,552,137 g’teed |
$20.5 million | $107,039,653 |
In reality, Elliott signed a four-year deal. His contract has guarantee triggers that make it impossible to release him until 2023.
This is why earlier in the piece it was mentioned he has just two more seasons to prove the contract was the right move. If he’s still one of the league’s best through 2021, the contract was worth it. No one in their right mind complains about a player’s deal if they fall off in it’s final year, unless they have an axe to grind.
The length of Elliott’s contract is actually a benefit to the Cowboys. Should he not fall off and continue to produce, Dallas has locked in the rights to possibly the last great bell-cow running back in the game.
Being able to depend on Elliott’s contributions is paramount and something the other orgs who have paid up have never been able to say.
Elliott proved in 2019 he was still one of the league’s best backs, posting 1,357 yards (fourth in league) and 12 scores on the ground and hauling in 54 receptions and another two scores.
Most think Elliott wasn’t the best back in 2019, and that’s more than fine. Christian McCaffrey was rightfully the RB darling of the media and basically viewed as the lone back worth accolades according to the analytics community because of his prowess as a pass catcher. In total yards, he was dominant, but we’ll circle back around to his 2019 season in a minute.
Having the biggest contract in the game does not mean said player has to be the best at his position year in, year out. It means that player needs to consistently be among the very best at his position. There’s a stark difference there many fans may not grasp. Football is a sport dependent on many, many things – that’s actually part of the argument against paying running backs, but stay with me.
The Cowboys changed their blocking techniques in 2018, and fired their offensive line coach Paul Alexander midseason. That probably had more to do with Elliott’s down season than anything else. They reverted to what they had done his first two years, he reverted to what he had done his first two years. Easy peezy, lemon squeezy.
Look at the top-5 running backs in terms of total yards around Elliott each of his four seasons in the league. We’ll project Elliott’s totals in 2017 over 15 games.
2016: David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Leveon Bell, Demarco Murray, Lesean McCoy
2017: Todd Gurley, Levon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Lesean McCoy
2018: Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon
2019: Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette
OK, but as we all know, yardage isn’t the best way to measure a back’s value. Football Outsiders has what I believe is the best standard of measurement, defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR).
“Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.”
2016: Elliott, McCoy, Bell, Mike Gillislee, Jordan Howard
2017: Dion Lewis, Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Hunt, Bell (Elliott 7th despite just 10 games)
2018: Gurley, Henry, Kamara, Marlon Mack, Melvin Gordon (Elliott 9th)
2019: Elliott, McCaffrey, Mark Ingram, Aaron Jones, Kenyon Drake.
The consistency is apparent in both measurements. Elliott has been the best back in the league, twice (including over McCaffrey in 2019 according to DYAR), could easily be projected for a third year (2017) and never finished outside of the top 10. Meanwhile, the cast of backs around him is constantly in flux.
So when the media talks about the bad contract decisions made in regards to Johnson and Gurley over the next several days, they’ll be casting an eye towards Elliott whether out in the open or under their breath.
But… he’s different.
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