The offseason is often spent with various outlets putting out their preseason rankings based on movement across the sport and new-look rosters entering spring football. Different metrics are used, from eye test to returning production to FPI.
One of the most well-respected metrics, though, is ESPN’s SP+, which is a rating system that combines several factors: Returning Production, Recent Recruiting, and Recent History.
Here is how ESPN’s Bill Connelly explains it:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you’re pretty far down the projections road.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in reverse chronological order (the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning last season, I also began incorporating transfers — both the quality and the volume — into the recruiting rankings part as well.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (2-4 years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?
With all of that being said, here’s a look at where the Oregon Ducks rank in the newly updated SP+ ratings that came out on Wednesday morning.