Kyren Williams is off to a fantastic start this season, taking full advantage of the increased opportunities with Cam Akers falling out of favor in L.A. He has four touchdowns and 154 yards from scrimmage, already getting 35 touches on offense – only nine fewer than he had all of last season.
His rushing grade of 79.7 from Pro Football Focus ranks eighth among all qualified running backs, forcing four missed tackles and gaining 77 yards after contact. As productive and effective as Williams has been, defenses haven’t yet respected him as a runner.
According to Next Gen Stats, Williams is one of just three running backs in the NFL who haven’t faced a single stacked box (eight-plus defenders in the box). The others are Miles Sanders and Joshua Kelley.
Compare that to Cam Akers, who faced a stacked box on 45.45% of his rush attempts in Week 1, and there’s a massive difference between the two; Akers’ stacked-box rate is the second-highest in the NFL this season.
That shows the Seahawks geared up to stop Akers, but they didn’t pay much mind to Williams as a runner when he was on the field. It’s not the sole reason for Akers’ inefficiency, but he was in a tougher spot than Williams was.
The question is whether defenses will start to load the box against Williams now that the Rams are leaning more heavily on him. While he has had a couple of good games, his rushing yards over expected is -0.59 per attempt, which ranks 14th-worst among all qualified running backs. Akers ranks last at -1.94 per attempt. That measures how many more or fewer yards the running back gains than he’s expected to gain on average.
Because Williams is a smaller runner, it’s possible defenses haven’t felt the need to stack the box with eight defenders. Whereas with Derrick Henry, defenses need linebackers and defensive linemen to get him on the ground.
By using lighter boxes, defenses are skewing more toward stopping the pass against the Rams. That’s great news for Williams because it makes his life easier, but if teams aren’t going to load the box against the Rams’ running game, it could make throwing the ball more difficult for Matthew Stafford.
The best way to make defenses respect the run is by consistently gaining yardage on the ground. If Williams can do that, it’ll bring even more balance to the offense.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]