https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1313573956629286912Is there hope on the horizon for the Dallas Cowboys? After their lackluster performance in Week 4, it’s been easy, heck it’s been cathartic for fans and media to revel in how inept the club looks early in the season. Head coach Mike McCarthy and his regime were dealt a bad hand, but even so, they are doing a worse job than other staffs given similar circumstances, specifically defensively.
The question now becomes whether or not Sunday’s performance was an aberration worthy of momentary derision, or whether it was the beginning of a plummet into the abyss. Most likely, based on some positives seen in the Week 3 loss to Seattle and the offense being able to score at will when they aren’t in their own way with turnovers, it’s a temporary low. The performance should bounce back. And it appears if it does, Dallas is in the fortuitous position of having an easy schedule to do it against. According to advanced analytics site Football Outsiders, Dallas has the easiest schedule across the final 12 games of any team in the NFL.
The Cowboys of course have the benefit of playing six of their final games against NFC opponent, in one of the worst divisions in recent memory. Through four games, the group has combined for just three victories, and one of those came against another division club where someone had to win.
Using our season simulations, projected total wins in each division:
NFC W 37.3
AFC N 36.8
NFC N 33.2
AFC W 32.8
NFC S 31.4
AFC S 30.6
AFC E 29.6
NFC E 23.4— Moo (@PFF_Moo) October 6, 2020
While Dallas has disappointed their fans with their 1-3 start, Football Outsiders isn’t as down on them as one may think. Dallas ranks 16th in DVOA — defense-adjusted value over average — an analytical measure that rates team performances on a play-by-play basis, given game situation and adjusts based on opponent. Garbage time performance is given less weight, a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is more valuable than a 5-yard gain on 1st-and-20, a 300-yard passing game against the Colts is more impressive than a 300-yard passing game against, well, the Cowboys. That sort of stuff.
The rest of the NFC? Whew. It’s bad.
Philadelphia, who currently sit atop the division with an impressive 1-2-1 record, is ranked No. 30 in Team DVOA this week. FO normally loves the Eagles, but even they cannot mask how bad Carson Wentz has been this season. The Washington Football Team, which beat Philly in Week 1 for their lone victory, is actually ahead of them at No. 28.
The New York Giants, Dallas’ Week 5 opponent, come in dead last.
The Cowboys, according to DVOA, are performing 3.2% worse than the average team would if given the exact same game situations. Bad, but not egregious. Washington is -17.1%. The Eagles are -29.7% and the Giants are -32.4%.
The Cardinals, Dallas’ Week 6 opponent, ranked 23rd at -9.8%.
Everything isn’t easy, however. Baltimore (4th), Pittsburgh (7th), San Francisco (9th) and Buffalo (10th) all remain on the schedule as well, with the 49ers likely having their starting QB back, unlike having to play Nick Mullens in Week 4 giving the Eagles their only win.
Execution will be the key, because games aren’t played on spreadsheets. The numers certainly make it appear Dallas has an opportunity to course-correct.
6 amazing, impressive or depressing Cowboys-Browns, quarter-pole stats
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