15. Auburn Tigers (5-2)
Unlike Texas A&M and Ole Miss, Auburn actually controls its own destiny, at least when it comes to getting to the SEC Championship.
If it wins out, it’ll have to beat Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Mississippi State, at South Carolina, Alabama, and – most likely – a do-over for an early loss against Georgia. Do that, and in as a two-loss team, no questions asked.
14. Kentucky Wildcats (6-1)
It’s going to require an intellectual leap that the College Football Playoff committee hasn’t been able to make.
For example, last year, Alabama was the be-all-end-all No. 1 team. Texas A&M’s only loss was at Alabama, so A&M – in theory – shouldn’t have been punished for having to play that team on the road. Instead, the committee put in a Notre Dame team that got blasted by Clemson in the ACC Championship.
If Georgia is the be-all-end-all No. 1 team, and Kentucky wins out and its only loss was 30-13 in Athens … again, it would take some work on the committee’s part.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0)
Be prepared for 1) Cincinnati to be ranked in the top five to start the College Football Playoff rankings next week and 2) this ranking to go up fast over the next few weeks.
However, that first CFP ranking doesn’t matter. Cincinnati needs help.
The brutal reality is that the schedule really isn’t close to being good enough, but that one win over Notre Dame might just be enough if everything else falls into place.
UC needs to get help from Georgia – Alabama can’t win the SEC Championship if Georgia is 12-0 going into it – someone in the Pac-12 has to knock off Oregon, and/or a few other things need to happen so there aren’t four sure-things from the Power Five champions.
12. Baylor Bears (6-1)
It might not seem fair to Cincinnati and the Group of Five programs, but it’s true – a 12-1 Power Five champion is a lock unless there are four other 12-1 or 13-0 Power Five champs. It won’t happen, but with Texas and Oklahoma still to play, and a Big 12 Championship if it all works out Baylor is still alive.
11. Pitt Panthers (6-1)
The loss to Western Michigan might be an anchor, but the College Football Playoff committee is made up of judges. Those judges have preconceived notions, and no matter what, they’re going to think beating Clemson is a big deal, even this year.