10. Auburn Tigers (6-2)
Here’s the difference between the Texas A&M and Auburn situations. Auburn has a loss to Penn State and just the one SEC loss to Georgia. A&M has two SEC losses.
If the Tigers win out against at Texas A&M, Mississippi State, at South Carolina, and Alabama, and then they beat Georgia and avenge the 34-10 loss from back in early October, they’re in without even a hesitation.
9. Baylor Bears (7-1)
The Bears would’ve almost certainly been in the College Football Playoff in the 2019 season had they slipped by Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.
This time around, if they beat at TCU, Oklahoma, at Kansas State, Texas Tech, and then – most likely – the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State winner in the Big 12 title game, they’re off to the College Football Playoff. However, for now, they’re behind …
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1)
The 24-14 win over Baylor is massive, but losing at Iowa State two weeks ago doesn’t leave any room for error. However, run through at West Virginia, TCU, at Texas Tech, and then it’s all about taking care of the home date with Oklahoma. And then, most likely, do it again in the Big 12 Championship.
More realistically, the Cowboys will lose to OU at least once, but end up in a New Year’s Six bowl game – likely the Sugar – as the Big 12’s representative.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
This is thin, but the problem is that Ohio State still doesn’t necessarily control its own destiny even if it wins out and takes the Big Ten Championship.
Michigan or Michigan State would be in if either one is the 12-1 Big Ten Champion. Ohio State, though, still has that 35-28 loss at home to Oregon it might have to overcome.
If the Ducks win out, they’re in over the Buckeyes.
If Oklahoma wins out, it’s in, too.
If Alabama and Georgia both go 12-1, they’re in, and let’s not discuss Wake Forest until we have to.
And then, even with all of that, someone in the room in Grapevine, Texas, is going to argue that Cincinnati with its lousy schedule and one good win over Notre Dame will deserve to be in over a one-loss Big Ten champion.
So it would help if there’s another loss coming for …
6. Oregon Ducks (7-1)
This team is just begging to get clocked at some point, and it’s probably going to happen at Utah on November 20th. However, if it wins out – at Washington, Washington State, at Utah, Oregon State, Pac-12 Championship – it’s in. Done. No issues, even with the loss to Stanford.
That win at Ohio State is better so far than anything anyone else has done, with all due respect to the Texas A&M win over Alabama, but that was in College Station.