The New England Patriots may have added their feature running back, Lamar Miller, for 2020 as a late addition. They signed him to a deal on Monday pending a physical. It’s a bad sign for the running backs on the roster that New England felt needed help.

Running back Sony Michel will start training camp on the physically unable to perform list after undergoing a foot surgery surgery this offseason. That’s the most obvious reason for this move: New England was down their top back and wanted to explore depth options. But Miller is more than just a depth option: he’s got starter potential, even at 29 years old. He will push Michel for the starting job on early downs.

Michel skidded in 2019, and while Bill Belichick pointed to poor blocking as the reason while the running back’s yards per carry fell from 4.5 in 2018 to 3.7 last year, the running back didn’t make many defenders miss and struggled to break tackles. The elusiveness he flashed in college has looked absent in Michel’s game in the pros, and so he’s left to run with power, which isn’t his natural style at 216 pounds. It doesn’t help that he has made practically zero contributions in the passing game as a receiver. After his lackluster season, which came during a season when Patriots offense had moments of paralysis, his job is open for the taking. Miller’s signing seems to be an indicator of that.

James White will continue to own the role as the team’s third-down back. Rex Burkhead will make his four-down contributions, when healthy. And then that brings us to Damien Harris. Why isn’t he viewed as a suitable replacement for Michel? After all, the Patriots drafted Harris in the third round out of Alabama because the felt he was the best player on the board at the time, according to Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio. Yet Harris didn’t contribute in 2019 behind Michel. With Michel hurting, the Patriots also felt it necessary to bring in competition for Harris.

There’s no saying if Miller can be the running back he once was. His ACL injury in TK seemed to kill some of his explosiveness. But if he can serve as a competent back as a runner and pass-catcher in 2020, then both Michel and Harris may be in trouble.

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New England Patriots running back Sony Michel is heading into an unprecedented situation with Tom Brady out of the picture.

The ground-and-pound running back is heading into his third NFL season and was used as the Patriots’ workhorse over the first two years. Michel’s most productive stint was during the 2018 playoffs — while slightly regressing in the 2019 season. He rushed for 912 yards and seven touchdowns last season with an average of 3.7 yards per carry.

Michel is missing a pass-catching dynamic in his game and it’s hurt his overall value as a fantasy football prospect. He’s handled 54 percent of the team’s carries in 29 games played, making him still a valuable back to add later in the draft. Brady’s absence will lead to a strong rushing attack and Michel will likely lead that category again.

The 2020 season will be a heavy load on Michel.

ADP on Fantasy Pros: #75
Where we think you should take him: ninth round
ESPN’s projected stats: 196 carries, 771 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns
Our projected stats: 260 carries, 912 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns

The backfield will feature Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris this year. As aforementioned, the Patriots will likely rely on their defense and a run-heavy gameplan to make life easier on second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham. In situations where Brady would’ve thrown the ball in the red zone, Michel will get more attempts to burst into the end zone.

It’s difficult to gauge Michel’s value, but he won’t be an RB1 because of his inability to make plays through the air. He can be used as an RB2 in a deeper league, but keeping him as a FLEX player to start is the safest decision. His production is unpredictable, but he has the capability to carry the ball more than 20 times a game and collect around 10 touchdowns on the season.

The Patriots drafted two tight ends and three interior offensive linemen to compete for roles on the team. They also signed fullback Danny Vitale — giving them a strong front to pound the rock. New England had little tight end presence last season and lost James Develin to a neck injury.

Though the Patriots’ running backs are always unpredictable, it’s very possible Michel puts up his best fantasy football year.

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A sophomore slump is a familiar term in the sports world. So many players make an impact in their rookie season, but when teams get film on them, there can be a bit of a drop in production. In 2019, Sony Michel struggled to really get going, but in 2020, he’ll need to reassert himself for his team’s success but for his future as well.

Michel finished his second season with 912 yards and seven touchdowns on 3.7 yards per attempt. Fans and media split the blame between Michel and the lack of talent in front of him on the offensive line. In his rookie year, he proved to be a solid runner with a fullback to lead the way. With James Develin out for 14 weeks (and then back-up fullback Jakob Johnson missing the final 11 weeks), Michel was unable to get a whole lot going. Not to mention the toe injury to left tackle Isaiah Wynn that kept him out eight weeks, or the blood clots that caused center David Andrews to miss the entire season.

Now, Michel has many reasons to step up in 2020.

The first is the depth at the running back position in New England.

If Michel gets off to a slow start, fans will start clamoring for Damien Harris to get a shot. Harris was selected in the third round of the 2019 draft and spent his rookie year on the bench watching and learning. He could be the spark that’s needed to jump-start the offense. Michel, as a first-round pick, doesn’t get the same leeway that a mid-round pick, like Harris, would.

Rex Burkhead, if he survives to the offseason cuts, offers more versatility and had a higher yards per attempt (4.6) than Michel last season. He may take some touches away from the former Bulldog if he starts slow. And, if he starts slow, he could play himself right out of some money.

While most players entering the NFL will only have four years on their rookie contracts, first-round picks may be given a fifth year at a higher pay rate. Teams have to make a decision on whether or not they will use the fifth-year option before the player enters the fourth year of their rookie deal. Michel will have to make the most of 2020 if he wants to secure a solid paycheck in that 2022 season.

The fifth-year option pay rate is a little hard to explain. For a player selected from 11th overall to 32nd, their option is worth the average salary of the 25th highest-paid to 3rd highest-paid player at their position.

For example, this offseason, before any of the free agents have even signed, the fifth-year option is slated at $5.5 million. And, again, that’s before guys like Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake, etc. get paid. That number is only going up, and Michel can earn that option by performing well in his third year.

Whether or not Tom Brady is playing in New England or not, the Patriots’ offense will feature the running back more in 2020. If Brady is there, it may be to take some of the pressure of the aging quarterback. If he’s not, it will be to make it easier for a new quarterback. As a first-round pick who had an incredible run as a rookie in the postseason, Michel needs to be the guy to help out.

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