Rookie Analysis – Page 4 – Syndication Server

Rookie Rundown: WR Henry Ruggs III, Alabama

WR Henry Ruggs III Rookie Profile

Speed.

This is the sort of wide receiver that Al Davis would have moved up in the draft to acquire. As it is, Henry Ruggs is expected to be the third wideout selected this year though not the first from Alabama (Jerry Jeudy). Ruggs’ 4.27-40 time was the best from the 2020 NFL Combine and tied for third-best of all time. There is no question – Ruggs is very, very fast.

In a matchup with South Carolina, he was clocked at 24.3 MPH on an 81-yard touchdown catch-and-run. That’s faster than any receiver has been timed in the NFL. Last year in the NFL, the fastest play was 22.3 MPG by Matt Breida on his 83-yard touchdown run. The fastest so far has been Tyreek Hill (23.24 MPH) in 2016 when the league began recording the measurement. He was recorded a full mile-per-hour than Hill. So speed – not a problem.

The former five-star recruit was highly-coveted out of high school (as are all Alabama players) and not surprisingly set the Alabama state record for 100-meter dash (10.38). The Crimson Tide doesn’t throw the ball a lot and yet Ruggs scored six times as a freshman to lead all receivers including Calvin Ridley.

As a sophomore, he increased his role as the deep threat and scored 11 times on his 46 catches for 741 yards while Jeudy became the next Ridley with 68 receptions. As a junior, he fell back a bit with only 40 catches and seven scores but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was lost during the season.

Height: 5-11
Weight: 188 pounds
40 time: 4.27 seconds

While teammate Jeudy and Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb are considered locks to be the first two wideouts drafted for 2020, Ruggs is a consensus No. 3 and can immediately fit into an NFL offense as the deep threat.

Year	Games	Catch	Yards	Avg.	TD	Runs	Yards.	TD	Total Yards	Total TDs
2017	14	12	229	19.1	6	0	0	0	229	19.1
2018	14	46	741	16.1	11	0	0	0	741	11
2019	12	40	746	18.7	7	2	75	1	821	8

Pros

The fastest player on the field
Averaged 17.5 yards per catch at Alabama
Bigger size than most speedsters, can absorb contact
Elite acceleration and burst
Great hands that can pluck the ball from the air
Flashes hands at last second for the catch
Tremendous athleticism
Tracks and adjusts to the ball well, even while dealing with a defender
Capable blocker with an aggressive willingness
Offers kick-off return duties
High “Run After Catch” no matter where he catches the ball

Cons

Could struggle against NFL-quality jams
Less experienced with only 98 catches over three years.
Won’t break many tackles
Was never the primary receiver in college

Fantasy outlook

Ruggs is more than just a jaw-dropping blur running down the sideline (though he can be that). He is capable of short and intermediate routes as well and he has that rare burst that can leave defenders grasping at air. He is not a physical receiver that is going to go over the middle and bull his way for more yardage. But he is more than just another fast wideout and that’s a very notable positive.

NFL history is littered with speed merchants that just never really translated into much when they reached the league. John Ross of the Bengals owns the NFL combine record of 4.22 seconds on the 40-yard dash. He’s never caught more than 28 passes in any of his three seasons. Dri Archer, Marquise Goodwin, Jacoby Ford, and J.J. Nelson all turned in sub-4.3 40-times and yet did not benefit much from their physical advantage.

Ruggs can offer kick returns from the start. He totaled 25 returns in college and averaged 21.0 yards though he never scored on special teams. He can be used as the occasional runner on a trick play as he was last season when his two carries totaled 75 yards and one score. He is a player that you want to get the ball so long as he is in the open field.

He is not likely to become a primary wideout for an NFL team, at least not at first. He’ll likely spend his first season or two as that deep threat that must be respected, so he needs to land with a team that has a good quarterback and scheme. Ideally, on a team that already has a stud wideout that attracts the attention of the secondary.

To his credit, his lower volume of receptions in college is mostly due to playing for the Crimson Tide who usually led on the scoreboard (sometimes significantly so) and that did not have to throw the ball nearly as much as most teams. If he is paired with one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, Ruggs could blossom even as a rookie. There is no question that he’s a much-feared deep threat. What is less proven is what he can do on an offense that throws the ball often and that isn’t leading their opponent by 50 points in the third quarter.

Rookie Rundown: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Rookie Profile: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

This Alabama product is the highest risk/reward pick in the NFL draft. He was a lock to be a top drafted player after leading the Crimson Tide to two National Championships. He was likely to be the No. 1 overall pick (and could still be). As a freshman, he was a backup to Jalen Hurts but then was called up at halftime of the National Championship when Hurts had been ineffective and they trailed the Georgia Bulldogs 0-13. Tagovailoa rallied the team for a 26-23 win and Hurts ended up transferring out since they were Tagovailoa’s team from that day onwards.

As a sophomore, he threw for 3,966 yards and 43 touchdowns while only tossing six interceptions. He added five scores as a runner. The Crimson Tide went on to their second championship game but lost to Clemson. Tagovailoa ended second to Kyler Murray for the Heisman but did win the Walter Camp Award and Maxwell Award for the best college player.

As a junior, he was on another torrid pace that would have resulted in around 4,700 passing yards and over 50 touchdowns until the Mississippi State matchup on November 16 when he left the game after a sack drove his knee into the ground causing his hip to dislocate and fracture. He also suffered a broken nose and concussion on the play. He underwent surgery two days later.

Height: 6-0
Weight: 217 pounds
40 time: 4.9 seconds

Tagovailoa opted to forgo his senior season and enter the NFL draft. He attended the NFL Combine but did no drills since he was not yet medically cleared to participate. He was due to have a Pro Day in April but that was canceled due to the Corona Virus pandemic.

Tagovailoa dislocated hip and fractured Posterior Wall was originally expected to heal up and allow him to begin physical training after three months. He met that time frame by early March and has resumed throwing the ball. He’s undergone a physical exam and by all accounts is back to form though he did not out at the NFL Combine.

Year	Games	Runs	Yards	TD	Pass	Complete	Yards	Avg.	TD	Int	QBR
2017	8	27	133	2	77	49	636	9.9	11	2	175.0
2018	15	15	57	5	355	245	3966	12.8	43	6	199.4
2019	9	23	17	2	252	180	2840	11.3	33	3	206.9

Pros

Right-handed but was trained to throw with his left
Excelled at the highest level in college football
Accurate at all levels
Outstanding decision making through reads
Great anticipation when throwing
Tremendous touch on deep throws to fast receivers
Can move the sticks with legs when needed
Winner mentality with success at any level
Good pocket awareness and takes few sacks

Cons

Arm strength is good but not elite
Obvious injury concerns
Played mostly from the shotgun formation at Alabama
Occasional batted balls since only six feet tall.
Ball security could be an issue since he carries the ball with one hand

Fantasy outlook

Tagovailoa will carry the caveat – “as long as he is healthy”, at least for the first season. He was durable for his career until that fateful game against Mississippi State last November. But he’s never been anything short of a superstar. In high school, he rolled up 8,158 passing yards and 84 touchdowns and added 3,952 yards as a rusher. He owned offers from most colleges before committing to Alabama. In college, he won a National Championship as a freshman coming off the bench and returned the next year as a starter.

He’ll ideally end up in a West Coast offense where his accuracy and decision making will be optimized and any arm limitations (few as they are) won’t be a problem. Though make no mistake, he played with speedsters Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. Their success with Tagovailoa should seem them both in the first five wideouts taken in the NFL draft. He can hit a streaking target in stride.

This is a season with much transition for NFL quarterbacks. That means that Tagovailoa could go to a number of different teams if they are willing to trade up into the top ten (or likely top five) picks. He could end up with the Bengals if they skip Joe Burrows with the first overall pick. Most analysts believe he will end up with the Miami Dolphins at the No. 5 slot though the Chargers at No. 6 could make a move.

Where ever he ends up, he’ll provide a proven winner that possesses every desirable quality for a franchise quarterback … as long as he is healthy.

Rookie Rundown: RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin

The quarterbacks have a two-man race to be the first drafted – Joe Burrows or Tua Tagovailoa? The running backs are the same – D’Andre Swift or Jonathan Taylor?

The ex-Badger Taylor could end up as the first running back selected in the NFL draft and no matter what – he’ll be expected to step in as a primary back from Week 1. Swift may have more experience as a receiver and a bit less wear on the tread, but Taylor harkens back to the bruising, workhorse-style of back not all that unlike Derrick Henry was in college and finally became in the NFL.

Taylor was prolific for each of his three seasons. He produced over 2,000 total yards in each season even as a freshman. He came within 23 yards from producing three straight 2,000-yard rushing seasons. His role as a receiver finally kicked in last year when he caught 26 passes and scored five times as a receiver. But Taylor’s rushing ability is elite, record-breaking and spectacular. He ends as fourth on the all-time NCAA FBS career rushing yards leaderboard, with 6,147 yards. He only played three years.

Height: 5-10
Weight: 226 pounds
40 time: 4.39 seconds

Ten years ago, when the running backs ruled the NFL, Taylor would have fit in perfectly and would have been drafted even earlier. For the last two seasons, he was a unanimous first-team All-American and won the Doak Walker award both years as the nation’s best running back. His 1,977 rushing yards in 2017 is the all-time record for any freshman, and he was the Big Ten Freshman of the year.

Year	Games	Runs	Yards	Avg.	TD	Catch	Yards.	TD	Total Yards	Total TDs
2017	14	299	1977	6.6	13	8	95	0	2072	13
2018	13	307	2194	7.1	16	8	60	0	2254	16
2019	14	320	2003	6.3	21	26	252	5	2255	26

Pros

Workhorse back that never gets tired
Durable – never missed time with any significant injury
Rare speed/size ratio. Can shift gears at the second level and leave defenders behind with 4.39 speed
Runs like a wrecking ball inside and almost never tackled by just one defender.
Equally dangerous inside and outside, but mostly a straight-line rusher
Runs with great urgency and determination
Arm tackles won’t bring him down
A downhill runner that doesn’t waste time with excessive jukes or cuts
Shorter, muscular and yet blazing speed makes him remarkably elusive and he always falls forward
A lock for all short-yardage and goal-line duties

Cons

Lots of miles on the tread. History not always kind to such a college workload. Could have a shorter career.
Lost 15 fumbles in college but had a very heavy workload and doesn’t shy away from contact. Could be a bigger issue in the NFL if defenses find success stripping the ball
Only added role as a receiver last year. Capable – just not very experienced
Will need work on pass protection – did not play as much on obvious passing downs

Fantasy outlook

Taylor is the iconic college workhorse back. He ran for around 2,000 yards in all three seasons. There is no question about his rushing ability other than how long he can maintain a high level of production after 926 carries over 41 games. He’s been a 300-carry back for three years despite playing in three (or four) fewer games in a season than he will in the NFL.

Taylor needs to land on an offense with an above-average line. He’s been a straight-line rusher that takes advantage of his blocking and is used to reaching the second-level where he can bull for more yards or hit a seam and take off. He is not adept at dancing behind the line of scrimmage waiting for a hole to open (but who is?). He is a perfect fit for the NFL of ten or more years ago. He needs to improve as a receiver and blocker to better fit into the 2020 NFL.

He is projected to be taken at the end of the first or the first half of the second round, depending on team needs after free agency shakes out. The positive there is that he could potentially end up on any team. His college workload may shorten his career but that first four years as a rookie shouldn’t be an issue – and he has been very durable.

Teams that are most likely to have an interest in him include the Rams, Falcons, Dolphins, and Buccaneers. He’ll be of interest no matter where he ends up but if he lands on a team with a great offensive line and a passing game to respect, Taylor’s fantasy stock could really spike.

Rookie Rundown: QB Joe Burrow, LSU

Joe Burrows player profile with a fantasy perspective.

What a difference a year makes. Joe Burrows played at Ohio State for his first two seasons and never was better than the No. 2 quarterback. In 2017, he played behind Dwayne Haskins and J.T. Barrett while only throwing eleven passes. Burrow red-shirted as a freshman and actually graduated from OSU in just three years with a degree in consumer and family financial services. That made him eligible to play as a graduate transfer to LSU.

Burrow was named as the starting quarterback at LSU as a redshirt junior and led them to a 10-3 record including a No. 6 ranking on the final AP Poll that year. He entered his redshirt senior season with only 18 career touchdown passes. He already threw for 17 scores by his fourth game. He would end with one of the greatest single-season performances of all time. His 60 passing touchdowns and 5,671 passing touchdowns set all-time SEC records. He threw for more than 320 yards in 14 consecutive games. He accounted for more than three touchdowns in over half his games.

While some top players consider not playing in their final college playoff game to avoid potential injury, Burrows did play. He passed for 463 yards and six touchdowns in the 2020 National Championship game as the game MVP. Until 2019, Burrows had a minimal track record. Twelve months later, he won everything. Everything. Heisman, national championship, almost all single-season records of any note.

Height: 6-4
Weight: 216 pounds
40 time: 4.76 seconds

As if his prolific scoring and yardage and wins were not enough. He only threw for six interceptions all year. He owns one of the most dramatic year-to-year turnarounds in the history of all sports.

Year	Games	Runs	Yards	TD	Pass	Complete	Yards	Avg.	TD	Int	QBR
2016*	5	12	58	1	28	22	226	8.1	2	0	0
2017*	5	3	-5	0	11	7	61	5.5	0	0	0
2018	13	128	399	7	379	219	2894	7.9	16	5	0
2019	15	115	368	5	527	402	5671	10.8	60	6

*Ohio State

Pros

A mature 23 years old
Highly intelligent, great football IQ
Consistently rises to the occasion
Precise passer that throws a very catchable ball
Deadly accurate even with small windows
Great at reading defenses, setting up passes
A capable runner that can break a long gainer with his legs
Big frame lets him stand tough in the pocket and is hard to bring down
Equally effective in the pocket or on the run
Superior anticipation and sets up receivers to be successful
Won nearly every possible award for his 2019 season

Cons

Only one very spectacular season
Arm strength considered only average
Less accurate outside the numbers
Needs a “wide open” scheme to shine
Took some unnecessary sacks waiting on the play to develop

Fantasy outlook

Burrows is the consensus best quarterback in the draft and the favorite to be the first overall pick (currently the Bengals). That isn’t to say that it is not possible that he is not the first pick or that someone like Tua Tagovailoa couldn’t end up as the guy but Burrows won’t fall more than a spot or two or be less than the second quarterback taken. Heading into the NFL draft, the expectation is that the Bengals will select him with their first overall pick.

He will be a Day One starter where ever he goes. Aside from his prolific senior season, Burrows is very smart and a lock to be an asset for any organization. While other top players could have various scrapes with the law or questions surrounding their maturity, that doesn’t exist for Burrow. When he accepted the Heisman Trophy, his acceptance speech resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars being donated to a food pantry in his Ohio hometown.

The rookie needs to end up in an offense that throws – a lot. The Bengals enter their second season under ex-Rams QB coach Zac Taylor who calls the plays. No doubt, selecting a premier rookie quarterback would result in molding the scheme to Burrow’s strengths.

The Bengals roster will undergo change via free agency and the NFL draft but they franchised A.J. Green to ensure that he and Tyler Boyd can offer their quarterback with an above average pair of receivers. Rookie quarterbacks rarely offer much in fantasy terms, but none of them are coming off as wildly productive of a season. Like any player expected to be the first overall pick, Burrows will be expected to step in and make a difference from the start. His long-term expectations are even higher.

Rookie Rundown: RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia

An overview of Georgia running back D’Andre Swift

This is the rookie running back that will likely draw the most interest in fantasy drafts and depending on where he lands, he could be an early-round pick. He follows the long-line of NFL-worthy backs from the Bulldogs backfield. The freshman burst on the scene with a 7.6-yard average while playing behind Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. He shared the backfield with Elijah Holyfield as a sophomore when he scored 13 touchdowns. He became the clear primary back as a junior for a team that usually relies on multiple rushers.

Height: 5-8
Weight: 212 pounds
40 time: 4.48 seconds

Swift was a five-star recruit out of high school and made the SEC All-Freshman team. He earned All-SEC honors last season. He’s the most complete, ready-to-start back in the draft this season as this season’s Josh Jacobs.

Year	Games	Runs	Yards	Avg.	TD	Catch	Yards.	TD	Total Yards	Total TDs
2017	15	81	618	7.6	3	17	153	1	771	4
2018	14	163	1049	6.4	10	32	297	3	1346	13
2019	14	196	1218	6.2	7	24	216	1	1434	8

Pros

Rare speed for a muscular back
Strong inside runner with great vision
Surprising leaping ability
Outstanding cutting, sets up the defender to miss
Tremendous balance after hits or cuts
Low center of gravity and shorter size makes him harder to see, harder to tackle
Capable receiver that can run the entire route tree
Three-down talent stays on the field
Willing pass blocker
Lower touches in college mean plenty of tread left on the tires.

Cons

Pass protection skills need more work
Nagging injuries in college suggest durability issues
Never had more than 196 rushes in a season so not used to a heavier load in a longer season.
Smaller size could struggle to finish runs

Fantasy outlook

Swift projects as an every-down back who is NFL-ready. Like his fellow Bulldogs Michel and Chubb, he’s expected to be one of the early backs selected and likely the first if he remains ahead of Jonathan Taylor who has also come on strongly. Like 2019, this isn’t considered to be a great class for running backs but that only helps his stock. He’ll end up with a team looking for a Week 1 contributor.

His durability history is a minor concern though he’s never suffered any serious injury. His 4.48 speed is elite though he’s considered quicker than he is fast. He’s been great in traffic and notching first downs and touchdowns. But he’s less likely to rack up a lot of long scores.

His 73 receptions in college translate well into today’s NFL and that’s likely what makes him slightly more attractive than Taylor who only recorded one season with notable receptions.

NFL free agency will obviously impact which teams will still be in the market for Swift when the NFL draft is held and there is a chance that no backs are taken in the first round – that means all teams have a shot at him. Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee, New York Jets, and Kansas City are all in the market to upgrade their backfield – or at least potentially.

Rookie Rundown: WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma

A star in the making, Lamb should have no shortage of suitors come draft day.

Oklahoma Sooners junior wide receiver CeeDee Lamb declared early for the 2020 NFL Draft after three productive seasons with the Sooners, in which he improved each of the past two years. He would go on to be a first-team AP All-American and Biletnikoff Award finalist in 2019, and Lamb earned recognition as a member of the All-Big 12 team.

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Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 198 pounds
40 time: 4.5 seconds

Despite a class with high-end quarterbacks and offensive linemen expected to occupy most of the top-10 draft picks, Lamb belongs in this area of the first round, even if it may not play out that way.

Table: CeeDee Lamb NCAA stats (2017-19)

Year	Rec	Yards	Avg.	TD	Long	Rush	Yards	Avg.	TD
2019	62	1,327	21.4	14	71	9	20	2.2	1
2018	65	1,158	17.8	11	86	0	0	0	0
2017	46	807	17.5	7	82	0	0	0	0

Pros

Lethal after the catch — open-field athleticism, awareness and vision jumps off of the screen when reviewing his film
Elite ball skills and tracking ability — his best traits as a receiver
One of the best receivers in the nation in contested-catch situations — attacks the ball and understands the dynamics behind optimal body placement and adjustments
Dangerous in all three levels of the route tree
Can play all over the field and is easily schemed into any system
Among the best deep-ball playmakers in college football over the last three years. No receiver averaged more yards per catch (minimum 40) in 2019
Tremendous football intelligence and off-field character
Plays after than he times
Experienced punt returner
Adequate lower-body strength to slip flimsy tackle attempts

Cons

Needs to improve efficiency in and out of breaks — could struggle to separate vs. pro-level man coverage
Limited upper-body strength with 11 reps on the 225-pound bench press and is more of an effort blocker, which could be exposed in the NFL
Thin build and doesn’t possess the frame to pack on more mass without threatening his quickness
More question marks than necessarily cons: Lamb played in an offense designed to create separation, which could have inflated his numbers after being untested by suspect Big 12 cornerbacks. How much did he benefit due to catching passes from the past two No. 1 overall picks in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray (plus Jalen Hurts)? How about playing alongside Hollywood Brown for two years?

Fantasy football outlook

As mentioned, despite being a top-10 talent, Lamb may fall victim to external circumstances. Looking at the first round, teams with the need and placement include: Arizona Cardinals (8th), New York Jets (11th), Las Vegas Raiders (12th, 19th), Indianapolis Colts (13th), Denver Broncos (15th), Miami Dolphins (18th). While Miami also has the fifth pick, it’s fully expected they will address quarterback and/or offensive tackle needs.

The most likely teams are the Jets, Raiders and Colts. It is tough to envision Lamb falling past the Raiders after the Antonio Brown fiasco left the cupboard rather barren, and the Jets absolutely need a WR1, especially if Robby Anderson doesn’t return in free agency.

In any of those three situations, the quarterback play (assuming Philip Rivers is a Colt) shouldn’t work against Lamb putting his best foot forward as a rookie. That said, the position rarely posts huge fantasy football statistics in Year 1. We’ve see several strong efforts in recent years, so think of Lamb as a beast-case WR2 and most likely a weekly flex consideration on talent alone.

Rookie Rundown: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama

Rookie rundown for WR Jerry Jeudy of Alabama

Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The Alabama junior declared for the draft after two stellar seasons and is most likely to be the first wideout taken and no worst than the second. He’s considered a rare blend of size, speed, and talent that can translate immediately into a starting role for an NFL team.

Height: 6-1
Weight: 193 pounds
40 time: 4.45 seconds

He became a starter in his sophomore season when he ended as a first-team All-American and the Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation’s best receiver. He was not quite as productive as a junior but still ended and one of the best receivers in the country and led the Crimson Tide for a second season. Jeudy was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and needed just one season to work his way to the top of the talent-rich roster at Alabama.

Year	Games	Catch	Yards	Avg.	TD	Runs	Yards.	Total Yards	Total TDs
2017	8	14	264	18.9	2	0	0	264	2
2018	15	68	1315	19.3	14	0	0	1315	14
2019	13	77	1163	15.1	10	1	1	1164	10

Pros

Played the outside and the slot in a pro-style offense versus SEC defenses.
Plays alls position and can move around if needed.
His 4.45/40-time includes great quickness from the line and early acceleration in intermediate and deep routes.
Expected to be an NFL starter immediately with as much upside to become an elite receiver as anyone in this class.
Precise route runner that a quarterback can rely on.
Displayed great deep skills with a 19.3-yard average in 2018, then excelled in shorter and intermediate routes last year.
Capable of scoring on any play, dangerous in the open field with the ball
Tough receiver that can catch in traffic and hold on to the ball.
Expected to become a valuable third-down target.

Cons

Wiry frame could use more bulk to handle NFL-quality jams and press coverage.
Not expected to offer return duties.
Speed and tracking ability likely to see him work as a deep threat at least initially.
Benefitted from a program that ran the ball often and very well.

Fantasy outlook

Jeudy projects as a first-rounder and likely a top-ten overall draft pick. He has all the background characteristics that say he’ll be a starting No. 1 wideout for a team and has the talent to become a Pro-Bowl caliber player. As with any receiver, the offense and quarterback that he plays with will have a large bearing on his success.

Potential suitors include the Bills who need a go-to receiver better than the aging John Brown. Jeudy could provide Josh Allen with a weapon to use for the next several years. The Raiders are also expected to consider Jeudy after spending 2019 with a marginal receiving crew and there is the need for excitement in their new digs in Las Vegas. Like the Bills, the Jets are also expected to be in the market for a top receiver to pair with Sam Darnold.

Rookie receivers tend to underperform expectations for fantasy leaguers but Jeudy will not only be the first rookie wideout taken in the NFL draft, but also in fantasy drafts. His landing spot matters greatly, but he’ll be a benefit where ever he ends up.