UFC 255: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 255 fight between Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight title bout on the main card, Deiveson Figueiredo and Alex Perez meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Figueiredo (19-1) puts his belt on the line against Perez (24-5) in the final bout of the evening. “Deus da Guerra” plucked the strap from Joseph Benavidez on Feb. 29 with a second-round KO/TKO. He then topped Benevidez in a rematch on July 18 with a first-round submission. Three straight fights have finished inside the distance for the Brazilian fighter, and five of the past seven haven’t needed the judges to get involved.

The beauty of Figueiredo is his versatility, as he is a strong fighter going toe-to-toe, but he can also get nasty on the canvas if he needs to be. He tries to lull his opponents to sleep before catching them with a powerful shot when they let their guard down. He holds a three-inch reach advantage over Perez, which is important to remember as he uses those long arms to try and deliver the death blow in this match.

Perez has won three straight fights since a loss to Benavidez at The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale on Nov. 30, 2018. However, while Figueiredo has defeated Benavidez twice, Perez has done something the champ hasn’t done. He picked up a win over Jussier Formiga by way of KO/TKO in Round 1 at UFC 250. Formiga is the only fighter to ever defeat Figueiredo. Four of Perez’s past five fights have finished inside the distance, with two KO/TKO wins, a KO/TKO loss and a submission victory.

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:50 a.m. ET.

Figueiredo (-286) is heavily favored to push past the American Perez (+230) on the 2-way line, but you cannot risk nearly three times your potential return.

Instead, look to FIGUEIREDO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-167) for a much better value. This one is not expected to go the distance by the books, as “No (-385): Will the fight go the distance?” is super expensive. You cannot play that, but look to UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-209) for a safe play, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-139) for a better value with a little more risk.

In addition, play FIGUEIREDO IN ROUND 2 (+400) and FIGUEIREDO IN ROUND 3 (+750) for the win in a two-round block. You will lose one end, but if he wins in either Round 2 or Round 3, you’ll be in the black quite a bit.

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UFC 255: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 255 fight between Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s flyweight title bout on the main card, Valentina Shevchenko and Jennifer Maia meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

The southpaw Shevchenko (19-3) looks to successfully defend her title for a fourth consecutive fight. She has fought off bids from Jessica Eye, Liz Carmouche and Katlyn Chookagian to take her strap since she claimed it when topping Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 for the title. Two of her three championship defenses have ended with a KO/TKO win, including the last time out against Chookagian on Feb. 8 at UFC 247. Since arriving on the scene at the UFC level, six of her 10 fights have finished inside the distance with two KO/TKO wins and two submission victories, showing her versatility.

Maia (18-6-1) is 3-2 at the UFC level, but she gets a crack at her first belt. Her last time out resulted in a submission victory over Joanne Calderwood on Aug. 1 at this very same venue on the Brunson-Shahbazyan Fight Night card. That was a rarity, though, as her first four bouts with the company resulted in unanimous decisions (2-2). The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and Muay Thai black belt is strong inside the clinch, and is able to piece together combinations well. However, Shevchenko is also decent in the ground game, so Maia might be unwilling to go to the canvas.

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Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:28 a.m. ET.

Shevchenko (-1667) is an overwhelming favorite to retain her strap, and she is one of the largest favorites in recent UFC history. That’s too high a risk. Instead, go with SHEVCHENKO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-182) at a much more affordable price.

In addition, play UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-162) for what should be a slam-dunk play unless this fight inexplicably goes the distance. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+110) is also worth a small-unit play at plus-money.

In addition, pick a two-round block for the win. SHEVCHENKO IN ROUND 1 (+250) and SHEVCHENKO IN ROUND 2 (+450) is a good way to build your bankroll. You will lose one end, but if she wins in the first two rounds you’ll still be well ahead.

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Get some action on UFC 255 by placing a legal sports bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC 255: Mike Perry vs. Tim Means odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 255 fight between Mike Perry vs. Tim Means, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Mike Perry and Tim Means meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Perry (14-6) posted a unanimous-decision victory over Mickey Gall last time out on the Poirier-Hooker Fight Night card on June 27 at this very same venue, slapping the brakes on a two-bout skid. Three of his past four fights have ended up going the distance, and six of the past eight have needed the judges to decide a winner.

Means (30-12-1) enters the octagon four inches taller than his counterpart, and with a four-inch reach advantage, too. The two fighters are nearly identical in the significant strikes landed per minute and significant strikes-accuracy percentage categories. While Means is ahead 0.98 to 0.66 in the takedown-average category, Perry is ahead slightly with a 46.15 to 42.42 takedown-accuracy percentage. Means is just 4-6 across the past 10 fights, coming off a win over Laureano Staropoli on Aug. 8. He hasn’t won consecutive fights since back-to-back KO/TKO victories over John Howard (Dec. 10, 2015) and Sabah Homasi (Aug. 20, 2016).

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Mike Perry vs. Tim Means: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:15 a.m. ET.

PERRY (-121) is the play on the 2-way line, as Means (+100) just hasn’t been able to string together consecutive victories in years.

In 20 career fights for Perry, 12 of the bouts have ended via KO/TKO, with 11 victories. As such, PERRY BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+150) is a solid value.

In addition, play UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-134), while NO (-152): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is just a little more expensive, but decent if you want a bit more wiggle room.

If you aren’t feeling a specific winner, but want action, playing KO/TKO/DQ (+115) for the fight finish method is the best play, and it doesn’t matter who gets their hand raised.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

Get some action on UFC 255 by placing a legal sports bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC 255: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 255 fight between Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Katlyn Chookagian and Cynthia Calvillo meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Chookagian (14-4) enters this match with a few things in her favor. She stands five inches taller than her counterpart, and she has a four-inch reach advantage. The significant strikes landed per minute is essentially even, but where Chookagian is well behind will be in the ground game. Calvillo (9-1-1) has a 1.97 to 0.30 advantage in the takedown-average category, as well as an overwhelming 46.67 to 15.79 takedown-accuracy percentage. In addition, Calvillo is well ahead 1.26 to 0.50 in submission average. In other words, it will behoove Chookagian to keep this fight upright.

Chookagian has been spinning her wheels lately. She lost a title shot at UFC 247 against Valentina Shevchenko on Feb. 8. She bounced back with a little revenge against Antonina Shevchenko on May 30 at this same venue before a first-round KO/TKO loss to Jessica Andrade last time out on Oct. 17. Chookagian has never lost back-to-back fights in her professional career, so she has that going for her. Two of her past three fights, though they were losses, have been inside the distance. In 18 pro fights, only one has been via submission, and that was a win.

The grappler extraordinaire Calvillo is unbeaten in the past four with a draw against Marina Rodriguez along the way. Three of Calvillo’s six wins at the UFC level have been via submission, and it’s a number she’ll try to add to here. Just one of her past six fights have finished inside the distance, though.

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Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:58 a.m. ET.

Calvillo (-264) is a heavy favorite to deal Chookagian (+215) her first two-bout losing streak, but you cannot risk more than two and a half times your potential return on the 2-way line. Let’s get more specific.

CALVILLO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+400) is a stunning value play. The books expect this one to go the distance, but playing the above could help you quadruple up. That’s too hard to pass up. CALVILLO BY DECISION (-121) is not nearly as attractive, but isn’t a bad hedge.

In addition, taking CALVILLO IN ROUND 1 (+800), CALVILLO IN ROUND 2 (+1100) and CALVILLO IN ROUND 3 (+1700) – yes, all three – is worth a look. If she finishes inside the distance, you will lose two ends of that wager, but you’ll be so far ahead. It’s worth the risk, especially more so than taking her on the 2-way line.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

Get some action on UFC 255 by placing a legal sports bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC 255: Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 255 fight between Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Mauricio Rua and Paul Craig meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Rua (27-11-1) heads into this rematch against Craig (13-4-1) with a 3.63 to 2.30 advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, while also leading 50.96 to 48.86 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. The two fought to a draw Nov. 16, 2019. The Brazilian Rua is also ahead in takedown average 2.17 to 1.61, as well as takedown-accuracy percentage at 48.57 to 21.43. He is coming off a split-decision win over Rogerio Nogueira on July 25, and he is 2-0-1 across the past three bouts. Three of his past five fights have finished inside the distance.

Craig bounced back from the Rua draw, posting a first-round submission win over Gadzhimurad Antigulov last time out on July 25 at Fight Island. Three of his past four fights have finished inside the distance, except for the Rua fight. One thing that is interesting, Craig has never won consecutive fights at the UFC level after starting his career on a 9-0 run in the lower ranks. He is a submission specialist, and that’s something he’d like to do against Rua. All five of his wins at the UFC level have been via submission, and the triangle choke is his specialty.

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Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:40 a.m. ET.

CRAIG (-182) is the play on the 2-way line, although it’s just about at the limit I like to play. For better value, look to the 5-way method of victory lines. CRAIG BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+165) is a much better play than just going with the 2-way line, although if Craig wins on points, you are holding a losing ticket.

In addition, I like UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+110) at plus-money, but you can also play NO (-121): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? if you want 90 more seconds of insurance.

I also like CRAIG IN ROUND 1 (+450) and CRAIG IN ROUND 2 (+600) for the win. Yes, you’re going to lose one of these, even if he wins in one of the first two rounds, but you’ll still be well ahead.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

Get some action on UFC 255 by placing a legal sports bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC 255: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 255 fight between Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In the flyweight preliminary bout, Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Moreno (17-5-1) checks into this one standing two inches shorter than his counterpart but has a two-inch reach advantage. The jiu-jitsu specialist has won each of his past two fights by unanimous decision since a split-decision draw against Askar Askarov at UFC Fight Night on Sept. 21, 2019. The wins came against Jussier Formiga (March 14, 2020) and Kai Kara-France (Dec. 14, 2019), so Moreno has been impressive in his second stint with UFC after a brief departure.

The southpaw Royval (12-4) has managed 3.90 significant strikes landed per minute, with a 52.88 significant strikes-accuracy percentage to 34.76 for Moreno. Like Moreno, Royval has faced Kara-France, posting a second-round submission on Sept. 26 in his most recent fight at UFC 253. In fact, both of Royval’s wins at the UFC level have been via submission, and he has tapped out each of his past four opponents dating back to an appearance at LFA 65 against Joby Sanchez. Royval does his best work on the mat, and the armbar and triangle choke are his go-to moves. In 16 career professional bouts, eight have ended via submission (all wins), while posting three KO/TKO victories (3-0).

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Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 a.m. ET.

ROYVAL (+145) is a strong play as a moderate underdog because of his ability on the canvas. He can win in a variety of ways, as he can tap his foe, win a toe-to-toe brawl or use his technique to wow the judges, if needed. The No. 6-ranked flyweight is a value play because of his ability to finish. In this battle of the Brandons, look for Royval to pick up the victory over the top contender in the division. It’s hard to believe that this fight isn’t part of the main card, but enjoy the treat before the pay-per-view begins.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

Get some action on UFC 255 by placing a legal sports bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC on ESPN+ 41: Paul Felder vs. Rafael Dos Anjos odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 41 fight between Paul Felder and Rafael Dos Anjos, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In the lightweight main event, Paul Felder and Rafael Dos Anjos meet at UFC on ESPN+ 41 – also called UFC Fight Night 182 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Felder (17-5) was originally set to join the broadcast for Islam Makhachev vs. Rafael Dos Anjos as a color commentator. When Makhachev pulled out due to an undisclosed injury, Felder texted his manager, reportedly partly in jest, to get him into the vacated spot. Less than 48 hours after Makhachev pulled out, Felder was in and getting ready to face RDA in Vegas. Felder hasn’t fought since Feb. 22, a split-decision setback in the main event against Dan Hooker in Auckland, New Zealand. Felder was reportedly considering retirement after that loss. However, he has been keeping busy, and was training for a triathlon during some downtime due to COVID-19. So he is in tremendous shape and ready to go, and he’ll get a nice little payday for his efforts, too.

Dos Anjos (29-13) tested positive for COVID-19 on Oct. 24, postponing a previously scheduled fight with Makhachev. This will be Dos Anjos’ first fight since bumping down from welterweight to lightweight. He is 1-4 across his past five bouts, including a title fight loss to Colby Covington on June 9, 2018. He also has losses to Kamaru Usman and Michael Chiesa during the span, but there’s no shame in losses to those studs. He was a bit overmatched as a welterweight, which is likely why he decided to drop down and try another path.

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Paul Felder vs. Rafael Dos Anjos: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:19 a.m. ET.

Dos Anjos (-200) will cost you two times your potential return, and that’s a bit risky, even with Felder (+165) stepping in on short notice. He is a wild card, and you just never know.

Still, Felder was just considering retirement after his latest loss, and his mindset is a bit of a question. He wasn’t even thinking about fighting until a week ago, so can he be trusted, especially against a former champ? That’s what makes DOS ANJOS BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+245) such a tremendous play. You can pick up almost two and a half times your investment if he can finish with a stoppage. As such, NO (+135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also a sharp play and a good value. However, I’d only be willing to go UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+150), and no earlier. This one isn’t going to be a quick one- or two-round bout, even if Felder has only known he is fighting for five days. He is still a top fighter at this division, and it is the first fight for Dos Anjos as a lightweight.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC on ESPN+ 41: Kay Hansen vs. Cory McKenna odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 41 fight between Kay Hansen and Cory McKenna, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s strawweight bout on the main card, Kay Hansen and Cory McKenna meet at UFC on ESPN+ 41 – also called UFC Fight Night 182 –  Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Hansen (7-3) hops into the octagon just one inch shorter than her opponent, but with a tremendous five-inch reach advantage. She also owns a 56.36 to 49.47 significant strikes-accuracy percentage, and 2.41 to 1.00 takedown average. Hansen posted a third-round submission victory over Jinh Yu Frey on June 27 in her UFC debut on the Poirier-Hooker Fight Night undercard. She has won three fights in a row overall since a split-decision loss to Magdalena Sormova at Invite FC on May 3, 2019. Hansen would be best served getting McKenna to the mat quickly, as she has four submission wins in 10 career professional fights, with the armbar as her specialty.

McKenna (5-1) will be making her UFC debut after topping Vanessa Demopoulos in Dana White’s Contender Series, Season 4, Week 2. She has only one setback during her career, a split-decision loss to Micol DiSegni at CWFC 97: Cage Warriors Fighting Championship 97 on Sept. 29, 2018. Three of McKenna’s past five fights have ended up going the distance, but the Welsh fighter has shown an ability to win by way of KO/TKO (2-0) and submission (1-0).

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Kay Hansen vs. Cory McKenna: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:03 a.m. ET.

Hansen (-213) is a moderate favorite on the 2-way line, and you will need to risk more than two times your potential return. That’s a little too risky, however. AVOID.

Instead, look to round betting, and you can either choose two rounds like HANSEN IN ROUND 1 (+1300) and HANSEN IN ROUND 2 (+1800), or play the third round (+3100), too. If Hansen wins inside the distance, you’ll be quite a bit ahead. While the books feel this one is going the distance, I don’t see it. As such, I like NO (+175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+205) is an even better value. On the 5-way line, HANSEN BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+290) is also a good way to bump up your bankroll, too.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC on ESPN+ 41: Eryk Anders vs. Antonio Arroyo odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 41 fight between Eryk Anders and Antonio Arroyo, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on the main card, Eryk Anders and Antonio Arroyo meet at UFC on ESPN+ 41 – also called UFC Fight Night 182 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Anders (13-5) heads into the octagon, taking the place of Andreas Michailidis on short notice. The latter was forced to withdraw due to an undisclosed issue. Anders has a two-inch reach advantage over Arroyo but is two inches shorter. The southpaw isn’t terribly accurate, however, as his opponents hold a 69.77 to 45.05 significant strike-accuracy percentage advantage. Anders is looking to bounce back after a unanimous-decision setback to Krzysztof Jotko on May 16 in Jacksonville, Fla., and he has dropped four of his previous six fights overall. Four of his past five have ended up going the distance, too. “Ya Boi” has had half of his 18 career professional fights end via KO/TKO, winning eight of those nine bouts.

Arroyo (9-3) is also looking to bounce back, as he dropped a unanimous decision against Andre Muniz in his UFC debut on Nov. 16, 2019 on the Blachowicz-Jacare Fight Night card. He has finished inside the distance in 10 of his 12 career professional fights, winning four times with no losses via knockout, with six fights ending by way of submission (4-2). He owns a 1.95 takedown average, 41.67 takedown-accuracy percentage and 0.39 submission average over the course of his career.

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Eryk Anders vs. Antonio Arroyo: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:36 a.m. ET.

ARROYO (+100) is worth a look on the 2-way line at even money, as Anders (-121) is a risky pick taking this fight on short notice. I’ve never like backing guys on short notice, as like all athletes, fighters are creatures of habit.

In addition, ARROYO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+270) on the 5-way line as method of victory can help you nearly triple your initial bet, so that’s a nice play. I am also not expecting this fight to go the distance, so look to NO (+115): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for a small profit, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+125) if you want a little more return. If you’re not feeling either of the fighters, but want some action on the fight, take KO/TKO/DQ (+175) for the fight finish, regardless of winner, as long as the fight doesn’t go the distance or end via submission.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

Get some action on UFC on ESPN+ 41 by placing a legal sports bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC on ESPN+ 41: Brendan Allen vs. Sean Strickland odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 41 fight between Brendan Allen vs. Sean Strickland, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a catch weight bout on the main card, Brendan Allen and Sean Strickland meet at UFC on ESPN+ 41 – also called UFC Fight Night 182 –  Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Allen (15-3) heads into the octagon with tremendous accuracy with his punches, posting a 60.71 significant strikes-accuracy percentage to 36.86 for his opponent. However, he manages just 2.67 significant strikes landed per minute to 4.64 for Strickland (21-3). He likely won’t be interested in a toe-to-toe battle but will rather look to get the fight to the canvas quickly. Allen owns a 1.42 to 1.22 takedown-average advantage, and, more importantly, a 2.36 to 0.44 submission-average lead. Since arriving at the UFC level, Allen has won each of his three fights, showing off great versatility. His last fight over Kyle Daukaus was a unanimous-decision win on June 27. Prior to that he had a KO/TKO win in Round 1 over Tom Breese, and a submission victory over Kevin Holland in his company debut Oct. 18, 2019.

Strickland (21-3) is coming off a unanimous-decision victory over Jack Marshman on Halloween, his first fight following a two-year hiatus after gruesome injuries suffered in a motorcycle accident. So even though he is back after a short break, he is rather well rested. He is well motivated, too, as he was on vacation in Tennessee in early November when he received the call to fight. While two of Strickland’s past three fights have finished by stoppage, seven of his past 10 have gone the distance.

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Brendan Allen vs. Sean Strickland: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:01 a.m. ET.

ALLEN (-125) is the way to go on the 2-way line, as he can win it in a brawl, on the mat or by wowing the judges with his technical ability, if need be. Strickland (+105) won an emotional return two weeks ago, but he admittedly was stuffing himself with barbeque and enjoying vacation before he was called back for the quick return. Confidence isn’t high that he’ll return with tremendous intensity.

As such, betting ALLEN IN ROUND 2 (+830) and ALLEN IN ROUND 3 (+1400) is a good, and potentially lucrative, way to go. Sure, you will lose one end, but if the fight ends in Allen’s favor in either of the final two rounds, you’ll be well in the black. You could technically bet ALLEN IN ROUND 1 (+550), too, and still be ahead as long as he doesn’t lose, or win on points. I also like NO (+125): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?

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