Category: PGA Tour odds

2023 Valspar Championship final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2023 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) in Tampa.

Three rounds are in the book at the 2023 Valspar Championship and 18 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2023 Valspar Championship odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Tampa, Fla. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and bets.
Adam Schenk, who opened at +10000 to win, is at 8-under-par 205 and will take a 1-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at Innisbrook Resort’s  Copperhead course (7,340 yards, par 71). Schenk is the No. 117th player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Justin Thomas is tied for 20th place at 2-under after rounds of 69-70-72. He opened at +1000 to win before the opening round and now  is at +7000.

Two-time defending champion Sam Burns, who beat Davis Riley in a playoff after finishing at 17-under 267 here last season, is tied for 25th at 1-under with rounds 69-73-70. Burns opened at +1500 to win. Trailing by 7 strokes, he’s at +20000 to rally for a 3rd-straight title here.

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2023 Valspar Championship – Final pairing

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:16 p.m. ET.

Adam Schenk (+425)

The 31-year-old pro shot a 1-under 70 on Saturday after carding 66-69 and will take a 1-shot lead into the final round. The Purdue University graduate will try to overcome the Boilermakers’ shocking NCAA Tournament loss and secure his 1st career title. Schenk has 9 top-10 finishes in 164 tour starts.

Jordan Spieth (+280)

The 29-year-old pro, who opened at +1200 to win, shot a 2-under 69 to go with a 67-70 and will start 1 stroke back at 7-under 206 in his quest for a 14th tour title. He’s the No. 23 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

Tommy Fleetwood (+350)

The 32-year-old Englishman, who opened at +2000 to win, shot his 2nd straight 69 after an opening 68 and is tied for 2nd at 7-under. Golfweek’s No. 22 has 25 top-10 finishes in 111 tour starts, including finishing 2nd on 4 occasions, but is still seeking his 1st tour title.

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2023 Valspar Championship – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:40 p.m. ET (1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m. ET NBC), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leader.

Taylor Moore (+1000): Golfweek’s No. 79 starts tied for 4th place 2 shots back at 6-under after rounds of 71-67-69. He opened at +6000.

Webb Simpson (+1200): He starts tied for 4th at 6-under after rounds of 71-68-68. Golfweek’s No. 199 player opened at +9000.

Cody Gribble (+2000): He’s also tied for 4th at 6-under after rounds of 72-65-70. He’s No. 199 in Golfweek’s rankings.

2023 Valspar Championship – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Jordan Spieth (+300 to make top 5): Admit it, you’re feeling pretty good about this if you bet it.

Tommy Fleetwood (+270 to make top 10): Start thinking about how you will spend your winnings.

Justin Suh (+180 to make top 20): Starts final round tied for 45th place at 1-over with rounds of 72-69-73.

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2023 Valspar Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Valspar Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The last event on the Florida Swing is this week: The 2023 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Fla. Sam Burns will go for his 3rd straight win at this event, but he’ll face some competition from the likes of Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, among others.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Thomas is the highest-ranked player in the field this week based on the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, coming in at No. 8 – the only player in the top 10 who will be playing at Innisbrook. Adam Hadwin, Tommy Fleetwood, Maverick McNealy and Matt Fitzpatrick are also in the field, ranking from No. 21-25, respectively. The 2-time defending champion Burns is No. 28 in the rankings.

The Copperhead Course is 7,340 yards and plays as a par 71, testing players’ accuracy off the tee with hazards and bunkers spanning the course. It’s not a course that demands a lot of length off the tee, but there are holes where distance is an advantage.

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Valspar Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. ET.

Justin Rose (+500)

Rose plotted his way around TPC Sawgrass really nicely last week en route to a 6th-place finish. Copperhead requires similar accuracy off the tee and placement in the fairways, which should have Rose in a good spot again this week.

His ball striking has been solid lately and he has a decent track record here with a top-5 finish in 2018.

Jordan Spieth (+300)

Spieth had a roller coaster of a week at Sawgrass after finishing 4th at Bay Hill, eventually ending up in 19th at The Players after barely making the cut. He won here back in 2015 and has 4 total top 20s in 5 starts here, showing he has the game to conquer Copperhead.

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Valspar Championship – Top-10 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+270)

Fleetwood was in contention at The Players before falling apart in the final round and shooting 4-over par on Sunday. In his debut here last year, he tied for 16th and has slowly been rounding into form this season as he pushes for a spot on the Ryder Cup team.

Keegan Bradley (+260)

In his last 5 starts this season, Bradley has 2 top 10s and a top 20 to go along with 2 missed cuts, including last week at The Players. But he only missed the cut because of a quadruple-bogey on the 9th hole Friday, which blew up his 2nd round.

Sam Burns (+210)

Burns has not only won this tournament each of the last 2 years, but he also has a T-30 and T-12 in his 2 other starts here. So it’s not just the wins that put him ahead of most of the field. A top-10 against a field that lacks the star power of bigger events should be very doable for Burns, and at +210, he’s a good value.

Valspar Championship – Top-20 picks

Justin Suh (+180)

Suh hasn’t finished worse than 40th in his last 4 starts, coming in 6th last week and 5th at the Honda Classic. He’s quietly been one of the steadier players in the last two months, showing he has the game to compete with the best. This will be his 1st start at the Vaslpar Championship, but he showed no disadvantages in his debut at TPC Sawgrass last week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (-105)

Fitzpatrick is almost at even money for a top-20 finish, which feels like a good value, especially considering he tied for 5th here last year. He typically plays better on more difficult courses and Copperhead is up there as a challenging track.

Akshay Bhatia (+380)

Bhatia played here in 2019 and missed the cut, but that was his only start in this event. He’s coming off a 2nd-place finish at the Puerto Rico Open and he has 2 other top-10s on the Korn Ferry Tour this season.

Valspar Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jordan Spieth (+100) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)

Thomas was just off last week. Spieth had his moments where he didn’t look completely dialed in, but those were far fewer than Thomas, who has been wayward with his driver lately and that’s not a recipe for success this week. Give me Spieth at even money.

Ben Griffin (-110) vs. Gary Woodland (-110)

Griffin followed up a T-21 and T-14 in his last 2 starts with a T-35 at The Players, a very strong stretch for the 26-year-old. He faded late in the week at The Players but his game is strong right now and Woodland has only made the cut once in his last 4 starts here.

Valspar Championship – Top American

Sam Burns (+1200)

Thomas and Spieth don’t worry me a lot at this tournament, which gives Burns an even better value as the 3rd-best American in the field. I’ll take the 2-time defending champion at +1200 to be the top American, which is only slightly worse than his outright odds of +1500.

Valspar Championship – 1st-round leader

Ben Griffin (+5000)

Griffin started last week with a very good 5-under round of 67 at Sawgrass before slipping as the week went on. He ranks 6th on tour in 1st-round scoring average, making him a good value at +5000.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+280)

Fleetwood has Bradley (+280), Hadwin (+320), Davis Riley (+425) and Denny McCarthy (+425) in his betting group this week, which is actually a solid collection of players and contenders. I like Fleetwood with his iron play and impressive performance here last year, as well as his play in the first 3 rounds before collapsing on Sunday.

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2023 Valspar Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Valspar Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Following Scottie Scheffler’s win at The Players Championship on Sunday, the PGA Tour will wrap up the Florida Swing this week at the 2023 Valspar Championship. Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course will once again host this event, which has been won by Sam Burns in each of the last 2 years.

Below, we look at the 2023 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Justin Thomas (+1000) and Jordan Spieth (+1200) headline the field this week at the Valspar Championship, along with reigning U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick and former U.S. Open champ Justin Rose. Burns (+1500) will try to go for the 3-peat at Innisbrook, but it’s a talented group chasing a PGA Tour title in Florida.

The Copperhead Course is 7,340 yards and plays as a par 71. The 3 finishing holes at Innisbrook are some of the best and toughest on tour, being dubbed the “Snake Pit.” The 16th hole is a 463-yard par 4 that bends to the right, followed by a par 3 that can play as long as 225 yards. The closing 18th is a 419-yard par 4 with bunkers along the fairway and protecting the green.

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Valspar Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:03 p.m. ET.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)

Fleetwood was right there at The Players Championship before making 2 doubles in the final 9 holes and shooting 4-over par to finish tied for 27th. He began the day in the top 5 but faltered badly down the stretch.

That’s not the way he wants to head into this week’s event, but his odds likely lengthened a bit at the Valspar after that Sunday collapse. He tied for 16th in his Valspar debut last year.

Justin Suh (+3000)

Suh is really finding a groove right now, finishing in the top 40 in each of his last 4 starts with 2 top 10s and another top 25. This will be his 1st start at the Valspar Championship, but his recent form is more important than any lack of course history.

This is another course that emphasizes accuracy over length like TPC Sawgrass so Suh could find success at Innisbrook this week like he did last week at The Players (T-6).

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Valspar Championship picks – Contenders

Joel Dahmen (+6000)

There’s no way around it: Dahmen has struggled recently. He’s missed the cut twice in his last 3 starts and hasn’t finished better than T-41 this calendar year. Now might be a good time to buy low on him, though. His odds are lengthening and he’s playing an event where in 2 starts, he’s finished T-39 and T-30.

Nick Taylor (+7000)

Taylor tied for 24th here in 2019 and although he’s missed the cut in his last 2 starts this season, he was playing well prior to that bump in the road; he came in 2nd at the WM Phoenix Open and had top-35 finishes at the Genesis Invitational and Pebble Beach.

Valspar Championship picks – Long shot

Akshay Bhatia (+7000)

In his last start at the Puerto Rico Open, which was admittedly a weaker field with most stars at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bhatia finished solo 2nd. He’s made the cut in all 4 of his PGA Tour starts and is trending upward.

This isn’t a loaded field at Innisbrook, but it does have some bigger names. Bhatia has the talent to beat any of them, though.

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2023 Players Championship final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2023 Players Championship TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Verde, Fla.

Three rounds are in the book at the 2023 Players Championship and only 6 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2023 Players Championship odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Ponte Verde, Fla. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and bets.

Scottie Scheffler, who opened at +1200 to win, is at 14-under-par 202 and will take a 2-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at TPC Sawgrass (7,275 yards, par 72). Scheffler is the No. 3 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy (+950 before the opening round) missed the cut after shooting 76-73. Defending champion Cameron Smith, who won at 13-under 275, is now in LIV Golf.

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2023 Players Championship – Final pairing

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:16 p.m. ET.

Scottie Scheffler (-220)

The 26-year-old pro vaulted into the lead with a 7-under 65 on Saturday after opening 68-69 and will try for his 6th career tour title and 2nd of the season after winning the WM Phoenix Open. Scheffler has 5 top-10 finishes in 8 starts this season and 41 in 117 career starts.

Min Woo Lee (+650)

The 24-year-old pro from Australia, who opened at +20000 to win, shot a 6-under 66 on Saturday to go with a 68-70 and will start 2 shots back. The No. 113 player in Golfweek’s rankings will try for his 1st career title in just his 24th PGA Tour start.

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2023 Players Championship – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:45 p.m. ET (1-6 p.m. NBC), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down Scheffler.

Cam Davis (+3000): Golfweek’s No. 117 player starts 3rd, 4 shots back at 10-under after rounds of 69-70-67. He opened at +20000 to win.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3000): He starts tied for 4th place 5 shots back at 9-under after rounds of 72-70-65. Golfweek’s No. 24 opened at +7000.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000): He starts in tied for 4th at 9-under after rounds of 68-70-69. Golfweek’s No. 67 player opened at +20000.

2023 Players Championship – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Sungjae Im (+650 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 8th place at 8-under with rounds of 75-69-64. He’s now at +5000 to win it.

Viktor Hovland (+260 to make top 10): Starts final round tied for 14th place at 6-under with rounds of 69-71-70.

Jason Day (+135 to make top 20): Starts final round sharing 14th place at 6-under with 3 straight 70s. We also had him +270 to make the top 10.

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2023 Players Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Players Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

For the 2nd week in a row, the biggest names in golf will be competing at a premier course in Florida. The 2023 Players Championship is taking place at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach. The 1st round tees off on Thursday.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

After finishing 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Rory McIlroy comes into this week as the betting favorite to win his 2nd Players Championship. Jon Rahm, the No. 1 player in the world, is right behind McIlroy, followed by Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay. Defending champion Cameron Smith is with LIV Golf and not in the field.

TPC Sawgrass features twisting and winding fairways, which are narrow and difficult to hit on several holes. Players are required to shape shots around the contours of the course, with greens in regulation being a strong marker of success here. Sawgrass is a par 72 that will play at 7,275 yards.

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Players Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:04 a.m. ET.

Sungjae Im (+650)

It’s easy to like Im this week. He’s great off the tee (21st in strokes gained) and a wizard around the greens with his wedges, which will help him save par when he does miss his target. He has 2 top-6 finishes in his last 5 starts this season and comes into this tournament in good form.

Justin Thomas (+450)

Thomas has been better than just about every player at TPC Sawgrass the last 2 years, winning it in 2021 and finishing tied for 33rd last year. He hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in his last 5 starts this season, so he’s been playing very well recently. He should be among the top 3 favorites this week.

Rory McIlroy (+220)

McIlroy cashed our top-5 ticket last week so we’ll run it back with him again at Sawgrass. He was a winner here in 2019 and has 3 other top-10 finishes at this tournament. He’s coming off a 2nd-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, too.

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Players Championship – Top-10 picks

Max Homa (+210)

Homa tied for 13th last year after missing the cut in his Players debut in 2021, but he’s a much better player now than he was 2 years ago. In his last 5 starts, he has a win, a 2nd-place finish and a 3rd on his resume, playing as well as anyone in the world.

Jason Day (+270)

Day has very quietly been as consistent as anyone in the last couple of months. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of his last 4 starts and top 20 in each of his last 6 tournaments. He missed the cut here last year, but that was an outlier after winning in 2016 and posting 2 other top 10s at Sawgrass since.

Viktor Hovland (+260)

Hovland limped his way to a T-10 at Bay Hill last week, shooting a final-round 75 after once holding the lead on Saturday. He has 7 top-25s in his 8 starts this season and tied for 9th in this event last year. Despite Sunday’s collapse, Hovland is playing well at the moment.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Rickie Fowler (+500)
  • Shane Lowry (+425)
  • Keegan Bradley (+400)

Players Championship – Top-20 picks

Jason Day (+135)

For all the reasons listed above, I’d also consider taking Day to come in the top 20. He has 6 straight top-20 finishes this season and looks like the player he was in his prime.

Adam Scott (+330)

Scott at +330 for a top-20? Don’t mind if I do. In his last 10 appearances at the Players Championship, he’s come in the top 20 six times. He’s 17-for-20 in cuts made here and won back in 2004, finishing worse than 48th only once since 2012 – and that was last year when the conditions were brutal for those on the wrong side of the draw.

Will Zalatoris (+150)

Zalatoris disappointed last week at Bay Hill but I’m running it back with him. In his first 2 starts at the Players Championship the last 2 years, he finished 21st and 26th, so he’s been on the cusp of a top-20. It’s been an up-and-down season so far but he’s worth a bet at +150 on a course that rewards great ball striking.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Joel Dahmen (+550)
  • Justin Thomas (+110)
  • Max Homa (+110)

Players Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jason Day (-120) vs. Tom Kim (+100)

This is a bet on course history/experience and recent form. Day has a big edge in both, with this being Kim’s Players Championship debut. You’re paying up a little bit with a -120 line, but Day is worth it.

Rory McIlroy (+100) vs. Jon Rahm (-120)

McIlroy is the favorite to win the tournament at +900, but Rahm is the favorite to win head-to-head? Give me McIlroy at even money to beat Rahm, who has struggled a bit on Bermuda greens and has just 2 finishes inside the top 50 here.

Max Homa (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele (+100)

Schauffele tied for 2nd in 2018, but hasn’t made the cut in his 3 tries since. Homa is trending upwards and playing the best golf of his life, which is why it makes sense for him to be the favorite. I’ll take Homa at -120.

Players Championship – Top American

Justin Thomas (+1200)

Thomas is a safer pick given his track record at TPC Sawgrass. He’s tied with Homa for the 3rd-best odds to be the top American, behind Scheffler and Cantlay. I love his chances to not only be the highest American on the leaderboard, but potentially win the whole thing.

Players Championship – 1st-round leader

Sungjae Im (+4000)

Im ranks 4th on tour in 1st-round scoring average, which is a good place to start when searching for this bet. He’s also 4th in par-5 scoring average so he should be able to take advantage of the par 5s on Thursday to get off to a great start.

Cameron Young (+4000)

Young can run hot and cold, oftentimes because of his putter. He’s as good a ball striker as anyone in the world, but if his putter doesn’t heat up, he struggles to go low. This is a week where I think he could put up a low number on Thursday, even if it means he struggles to stay in contention on Sunday.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group E winner: Rickie Fowler (+300)

Fowler is the favorite in this group over Keith Mitchell (+320), Sahith Theegala (+330), Si-Woo Kim (+350) and Sam Burns (+380). Mitchell would be the player I’m most worried about in this group, but Fowler is a past winner here and is playing well right now.

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2023 Players Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Players Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

It’s not major golf season yet, but the biggest tournament of the year so far is on deck this week: The 2023 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The 1st round tees off on Thursday morning from Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

Below, we look at the 2023 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

It’s another star-studded field this week in Florida after a thrilling finish to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill on Sunday, which featured a  loaded leaderboard as a designated event. The Players Championship is widely viewed as the 5th major and it features a major-type field with 43 of the top 50 players in the world teeing it up – led by Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas. The defending champion, Cam Smith, is in LIV Golf and will not be in the field.

TPC Sawgrass is a getable course if the weather cooperates, with the winning score typically ranging from 12-under to 18-under. Last year in tough conditions, Smith won at 13-under par 275. Players of all types have won here before, from short and accurate hitters to bombers like McIlroy and Thomas. It’s 7,275 yards and a par 72, requiring proper placement off the tee to set up an abundance of tricky second shots.

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Players Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:46 p.m. ET.

Sungjae Im (+4000)

Im has made the cut in 2 of his 3 trips here, with his best finish being a tie for 17th in 2021. He finished 55th last year, but given the conditions and the 5-day tournament due to weather delays, don’t buy into that too much. He has 2 top-10s and 3 top-25s in his last 5 starts, including a T-21 last week at Bay Hill. His ball striking and touch around the greens make him a great fit this week.

Justin Thomas (+2000)

Thomas has as good a track record at TPC Sawgrass as any player in the field. He’s made the cut all 7 times he’s played the Players, winning it in 2021 and only finishing worse than 35th once. That’s outstanding given the volatility of this course and star-studded event.

He should probably have shorter odds than +2000 but I’m not complaining. He’s a great value at that price.

Jason Day (+3000)

Day has looked more and more like his old self lately, finishing in the top 10 in 4 straight starts. He also has 2 top-10s in his last 4 starts and a win in 2016 at TPC Sawgrass, so the course fit is there, too. His odds have skyrocketed in the last 2 months as he consistently finishes near the top of leaderboards but +3000 is still a good number.

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Players Championship picks – Contenders

Keegan Bradley (+4000)

Bradley stormed up the leaderboard on Sunday at Bay Hill with a final-round 67 to finish tied for 10th, his 4th top 10 in 9 starts so far this season. He’s made the cut in 8 of 11 starts at the Players Championship, including 4 straight top-30s and 3 top-20 finishes in that span – including a 5th-place finish last year.

Rickie Fowler (+5000)

Fowler has only made the cut 5 times in 11 starts at the Players, but he also has a win, which came way back in 2015. But he’s been in great form recently with 4 straight top-31 finishes, which includes a T-10, T-11 and T-20. He has a lot of experience at Sawgrass, which will benefit him against the field, as will his ball striking (10th in SG: approach the green).

Keith Mitchell (+5000)

Mitchell tied for 13th in last year’s weather-delayed tournament and has now made the cut in 3 of 4 tries here. In his last 5 starts this season, Mitchell has come in the top 25 four times with 2 top-10s in that stretch. As a mid-tier option, Mitchell is a good player to go with.

Players Championship picks – Long shots

Adam Scott (+9000)

There’s no way Scott should be +9000 to win this week. He’s made the cut in each of his 4 starts this season and though he hasn’t cracked the top 20 yet, he’s played well at TPC Sawgrass in the past. He’s 16-for-20 in made cuts and has come in the top 12 four times in the last 6 years. You can put less stock in his missed cut last year, too.

Joel Dahmen (+20000)

Dahmen has played this event 3 times and finished T-33 and T-12 in 2 of those starts, with a missed cut sandwiched between them. He missed the cut in his last 2 starts this season, but prior to that, he had 8 straight made cuts, 5 top-25s and 3 top-10s. It’s a good time to buy low on Dahmen.

Justin Suh (+20000)

Suh is another long shot who’s worth a flier. In 3 straight events with mostly strong fields (Genesis, Honda Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational), Suh finished T-40, T-5 and T-24. He’s never played the Players Championship before, but he’s shown he has the game to compete against the sport’s best.

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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Clubs & Lodge in Orlando.

Three rounds are in the book at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitation and 10 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Orlando. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and bets.

Kurt Kitayama, who opened at +20000 to win, is at 9-under-par 207 and will take a 1-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at Bay Hill Clubs & Lodge (7,466, par 72). Kitayama is the No. 114 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Jon Rahm (+650 before the opening round) led after an opening 65, but a pair of 76s has him in tied for 44th place at 1-over. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler, who won at 5-under 283 a year ago, is in 2nd place at 8-under.

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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Final pairing

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:59 p.m. ET.

Kurt Kitayama (+650)

The 30-year-old pro shot an even-par 72 Saturday after opening with 67-68 and is at 9-under. He will try for his 1st career title in his 87th tour event. To do it, he will have to hold off some of the biggest names in golf.

Viktor Hovland (+380)

The 25-year-old pro from Norway, who opened at +3000, shot a 6-under 66 after a pair of 71s and will start the final round tied for 2nd a shot back at 8-under as he bids for his 6th career title. He’s the No. 11 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:10 p.m. ET (12:30-2:30 p.m. ET Golf Channel, 2:30-6 p.m. NBC), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leader.

Scottie Scheffler (+210): The 26-year-old pro, who opened at +1000 to successfully defend his title here, shot a 4-under 68 after a 68-72 and will start 1 shot back at 8-under as he bids for his 6th career title and 2nd in 3 weeks. He’ s the No. 3 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

Tyrrell Hatton (+650): He starts in 4th place 2 shots back at 7-under after rounds of 71-72-66. Golfweek’s No. 14 player opened at +700.

Rory McIlroy (+650): He starts tied for 5th place 3 shots back at 6-under after rounds of 73-69-68. Golfweek’s No. 2 player opened at +650.

And keep an eye on Justin Thomas (+2000) and Jordan Spieth (+3000), who are at 5-under, and on Max Homa (+4000) at 4-under.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Scottie Scheffler (+230 to make top 5): Certainly looks like a winner at this  point.

Viktor Hovland (+260 to make top 10): See the above comment.

Keegan Bradley (+230 to make top 20): Has work to do as he starts tied for  39th at even-par after rounds of 68-77-71.

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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The stars will be out this week for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla. It’s the 4th elevated event on the PGA Tour schedule this season, which means most of the biggest players in the sport will be teeing it up as 44 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Last year’s champion, Scottie Scheffler, is back to defend his title after successfully doing so at the WM Phoenix Open 2 weeks ago. He’s not the favorite, however. Jon Rahm has the best odds to win this week (+650), followed by Rory McIlroy (+900) and then Scheffler (+1000). Max Homa has the 4th-best odds (+1500) as he looks to continue his hot streak, too.

Bay Hill will test every part of a player’s game, being one of the toughest courses on the schedule. There’s water on most holes, so placement off the tee and accuracy into the greens are essential. It’s a par 72 and will play at 7,466 yards this week.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:14 p.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+210)

This week is a great time to bet McIlroy. He’s coming off 2 somewhat disappointing finishes – T-32 in Phoenix and T-29 at the Genesis – and is heading to a course where he’s had a lot of success. He’s only finished worse than T-13 once in 8 starts here and has 3 top-10s, including a win in 2018. He’s a perfect fit for Bay Hill.

Scottie Scheffler (+230)

Scheffler won here last year and with the way he’s playing right now, there’s no reason to doubt he’ll do it again. In 2 starts at the API, Scheffler has a win and a T-15, so he seems to enjoy this course. Always a player who thrives in stacked fields, Scheffler is a good bet for a top-5 finish.

Patrick Cantlay (+425)

Cantlay has never played the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is surprising. And though he’ll only be making his debut this week, he has the game to succeed at Bay Hill. He’s relatively accurate with his driver, ranking 12th in strokes gained: off the tee, and his putter can get hot in a hurry.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Tony Finau (+450)
  • Xander Schauffele (+450)

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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-10 picks

Will Zalatoris (+200)

Zalatoris tied for 10th here 2 years ago and finished 36th in 2022, making the cut in each of his 2 starts at Bay Hill. Another pure ball-striker, Zalatoris’ iron game will give him an edge in this impressive field. He just needs the putter to cooperate, which it has this season; he ranks 27th in strokes gained on the greens.

Collin Morikawa (+190)

Morikawa has only played this tournament twice, with the last time coming in 2020 when he tied for 9th. He seems to have figured things out with his irons after tying for 6th at Riviera, which should give him some momentum coming into this week.

Viktor Hovland (+260)

In 8 starts this season, including his unofficial win at the Hero World Challenge, Hovland has only finished worse than 21st once, and even that was a respectable T-42 in Phoenix. He tied for 2nd at Arnold’s place last year and is a good bet to finish near the top again this season.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Sungjae Im (+300)
  • Justin Thomas (+250)

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-20 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+240)

Fleetwood has top-20 finishes in 3 of his 6 starts at this event, making the cut all but once. He’s a longshot this week in a strong field, but he has the game and iron play to contend.

Keegan Bradley (+240)

Bradley is a regular at the API, playing this event 11 times and making the cut 10 times. He tied for 10th and 11th the last 2 years, finding success at Bay Hill, which could continue this time around.

Hideki Matsuyama (+210)

Matsuyama has made the cut in each of his 8 starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, including back-to-back years in the top 20 (T-20 and T-18). He also has a T-6 and T-21 on his resume here, showing Bay Hill suits his eye well.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Beau Hossler (+450)
  • Aaron Wise (+300)

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Collin Morikawa (+100) vs. Max Homa (-120)

It’s hard not to like both Morikawa and Homa this week, but I’ll take the value with Morikawa at even money. He looked great at the Genesis Invitational – I know, Homa did too in his victory – and though Homa has no weaknesses, Morikawa has the edge with his irons.

Sungjae Im (-110) vs. Jason Day (-110)

Im has a strong track record here, which has me inclined to bet him in a couple of different ways. In 4 years, he’s finished T-20, T-21, 3rd and T-3. That’s about as good as it gets without a win. Day has won this event before but since 2019, he’s played here 3 times and withdrawn twice.

Sahith Theegala (-110) vs. Shane Lowry (-110)

Here’s a mind-blowing stat: Lowry has never made the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 4 tries. That’s an aberration for the Irishman, but I’m not going to take him over Theegala with that sort of history.

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top American

Will Zalatoris (+1000)

Playing the Top American takes out McIlroy and Rahm at the top of the board. That’s a good way to play Zalatoris against the rest of the Americans in the field, with Scheffler being the favorite at +550.

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top Irish

Rory McIlroy (-160)

Seamus Power (+450), Lowry (+300) and Padraig Harrington (+1200) are the other Irish players in the field, which is why McIlroy is such a heavy favorite. But given Lowry’s track record here and McIlroy’s success, I’m willing to take him even at -160.

Arnold Palmer Invitational – 1st-round leader

Tony Finau (+3000)

Finau ranks 6th on tour in 1st-round scoring average and although his record here isn’t great, he’s someone who can pour in the birdies at a high rate. He’s been in great form lately, too, with nothing worse than a T-20 in his last 7 starts.

Sungjae Im (+4000)

Here’s another way to play Im at Bay Hill. He has the 21st-best 1st-round scoring average this season and as previously mentioned, he’s already finished in the top 3 twice here.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group E winner: Hideki Matsuyama (+350)

Chris Kirk (+330), Shane Lowry (+330), Keith Mitchell (+330) and Corey Conners (+400) are the other players in this group, which makes it another way to fade Lowry. Matsuyama has back-to-back top-20s in this event and should play well again this week.

Winning margin: 2 shots (+400)

These elevated fields often yield some close finishes, but not too close. The first 3 were all won by 2 shots, so let’s throw a dart and bet that that trend will continue this week.

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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The 4th elevated event on the PGA Tour schedule takes place this week with the star-studded 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill Club and Lodge will once again host this great event, which will begin on Thursday morning. Below, we look at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his title at Bay Hill and opens at +1000 as he seeks his 2nd win in his last 3 starts after winning the WM Phoenix Open 2 weeks ago. Jon Rahm is the betting favorite (+650) as he goes for back-to-back wins, while Rory McIlroy is also a headliner in this field.

Bay Hill is among the tougher non-major courses on the schedule. Scheffler won last year at 5-under par 283, a shot clear of Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel and Tyrell Hatton. It’s a par 72 that plays to 7,466 yards, with water in play on most holes.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Expert picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:04 p.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+900)

McIlroy won here in 2018, but what might be even more impressive and telling is that he’s only finished worse than T-13 once in 8 trips to Bay Hill. He’s never missed the cut, coming in 27th or better each time.

Bay Hill is a course that demands players to be accurate with their irons and fairly long off the tee, which are 2 boxes McIlroy checks. He should be closer to the co-favorite with Rahm, but with McIlroy struggling a bit in his last 2 starts and Rahm winning his last time out at Riviera, McIlroy’s odds have been knocked down a little bit.

Will Zalatoris (+2000)

Zalatoris has shown he’s fully recovered from his back injury, hitting it long at Riviera and averaging 310.9 yards off the tee. He also leads the tour with a 53.57% rate of his drives going 300-320 yards. Add in his ball striking into the greens and he’s a perfect fit for Bay Hill.

A player who excels when the scoring conditions are tough, Zalatoris should be in contention on Sunday; he tied for 10th here in 2021.

Collin Morikawa (+2000)

Morikawa surprisingly missed the cut in Phoenix, but he followed that up with a T-6 at the Genesis Invitational, another loaded field. He’s found something with his irons, ranking 8th on tour in strokes gained: approach the green this season.

He’s only played this event twice and not since 2020, but he finished 9th in his last start at Bay Hill.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Contenders

Tommy Fleetwood (+6000)

Fleetwood has an impressive track record here, making the cut in 5 of 6 starts. He tied for 10th and 20th in his last 2 starts, with a tie for 3rd in 2019 being his best finish – and 1 of 3 top-10s for him at Bay Hill. He has 1 top-10 and 2 top-25 finishes in just 4 starts this season, so he’s playing well coming into the Florida swing.

Keegan Bradley (+7000)

Bradley finished alone in 2nd at Torrey Pines this season and tied for 20th a week later in Phoenix, so he’s trending up – despite missing the cut at Riviera. In the last 2 years, he tied for 11th and 10th at Bay Hill, making the cut in 10 of 11 trips here with 3 top-10s.

Hideki Matsuyama (+6000)

Matsuyama’s odds have gotten a little bit longer than they probably should be this season. He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational, but prior to that, he had 3 top-30s in a span of 4 starts, including a T-9 at Torrey Pines. He tied for 18th and 20th in his last 2 appearances at Bay Hill.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Long shots

Aaron Wise (+10000)

This really isn’t a tournament for long shots, especially now that it’s an elevated event. But Wise is a sleeper worth considering. He tied for 17th here last year and has made the cut in 3 of 4 starts here. It’s hard to see him winning against this field, but another top 20 could be in the cards.

Beau Hossler (+20000)

Hossler tied for 11th at Pebble Beach and 14th in the WM Phoenix Open before missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational, but he’s still gotten off to a great start this season with 5 top-25s in his 1st 11 events played. He also tied for 20th and 24th in his last 2 trips to Bay Hill, so the course history is there.

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2023 Honda Classic final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2023 Honda Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Three rounds are in the book at the 2023 Honda Classic and just 6 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2023 Honda Classic odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and bets.

Chris Kirk, who opened at +2000 to win, is at 13-under-par 197 and will take a 2-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at PGA National (7,125 yards, par 70). Kirk is No. 54 in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Sungjae  Im (+900 before the opening round) is tied for 39th place at 2-under after rounds of 67-71-70. Defending champion Sepp Straka, who staged a 5-shot comeback in the final round to win at 10-under 270, will start 6 shots back, tied for 8th place at 7-under after shooting 69-68-66. He opened at +5000 to win and is now at +4000.

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2023 Honda Classic – Final pairing

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:44 p.m. ET.

Chris Kirk (+100)

The 37-year-old pro followed his 2nd-round 62 with a 4-under 66 to go with an opening 69. He will try for his 5th career tour title and his 1st in 180 tournaments since 2015. He’s made 14 birdies, an eagle and 3 bogeys in his 3 rounds.

Eric Cole (+480)

The 34-year-old tour rookie, who opened at +10000 to win, shot his 2nd-straight 4-under 66 after an opening 67 and is 2 shots back at 11-under. The No. 223 player in Golfweek’s rankings is bidding for his 1st tour title in his 15th career start.

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2023 Honda Classic – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:35 p.m. ET (1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m. NBC), here are 3 other golfers to watch as they try to chase down Kirk.

Justin Suh (+650): Golfweek’s No. 42 player starts in 3rd place 3 shots back at 10-under after rounds of 66-64-70. He opened at +6000.

Shane Lowry (+600): Starts tied for 4th place 4 shots back at 9-under after rounds of 68-68-65. Golfweek’s No. 39 player opened at +1500.

Ben Taylor (+1500): He starts tied for 4th at 9-under after rounds of 67-65-69. Golfweek’s 129th-ranked player opened at +10000.

2023 Honda Classic – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Chris Kirk (+650 to make top 5): It’s not over, but you can start to think about how you will spend your winnings.

Shane Lowry (+185 to make top 10): See the above note as he starts tied for 4th.

Lee Hodges (+220 to make top 20): Starts final round in 31st place at 3-under after rounds of 71-69-67.

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