NFL Picks and Predictions – Page 187

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers preseason odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers open their preseason slates on Saturday at SoFi Stadium. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rams vs. Chargers odds, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Rams are technically the road team in this game, but the defending Super Bowl champions will be right at home at SoFi Stadium — their home field and the site of their Super Bowl win in February.

Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams don’t play their starters in the preseason, so don’t expect to see QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, DT Aaron Donald or CB Jalen Ramsey. Instead, McVay will use these games to evaluate his younger players at the expense of meaningless wins; the Rams went 0-3 in the preseason last year.

Chargers coach Brandon Staley will take a similar approach. He’s likely going to rest most of his starters too, giving rookies and unproven players a chance to make a name for themselves at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers scored the second-fewest points (23) in the preseason last year, resting QB Justin Herbert and other top players for all 3 contests.

Rams at Chargers odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:25 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Rams +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Chargers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Rams +3.5 (-110) | Chargers -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 30.5 (O: -103 | U: -117)

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Rams at Chargers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rams 14, Chargers 10

Money line

The Rams went winless in the preseason last year while resting their starters, continuing McVay’s lack of success in these exhibition games — not that it matters in the slightest bit. He also usually lets his offensive coordinators call the plays, and the scheme isn’t exactly the most complex in the preseason.

However, the Chargers are going to be in the same boat with resting their starters and caring more about health than wins the next 3 weeks. I’ll roll with the underdogs and their solid collection of backups in the preseason when anything can happen. Take the RAMS (+130).

Against the spread

Taking the points in the preseason is never a bad idea. This game will be about backups and reserves playing against backups and reserves, so there’s no real edge on either side. Chargers QB Chase Daniel might be a better backup than Rams QB John Wolford, but their playmakers on the outside will both be on the weaker side.

I like the RAMS -3.5 (-110) in an evenly matched game at both teams’ home field.

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Over/Under

The Rams scored 34 points in 3 preseason games last year. The Chargers scored 23. Both teams were in the bottom 6 of the league. Their defenses were similar in allowing 47 and 48 points, respectively, but don’t expect much from the offenses.

Bet the UNDER 30.5 (-117).

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

Analyzing Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

After coming off a successful 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler looks to make his mark on the league again this season.

The 5-year veteran recorded 20 total touchdowns last season (12 rushing and 8 receiving), and looks to lead the Chargers to a successful 2022 season with QB Justin Herbert.

Below, we look at Austin Ekeler’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

The star running back set new career bests with 911 rushing yards on 206 carries last season. However, he is now 27 years old and some regression may be due.

Austin Ekeler’s ADP: 7.35

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Ekeler has an ADP of 7.35 in redraft leagues, putting him in the draft’s 1st round. He has the highest ADP among his Los Angeles Charger teammates, although Herbert and WR Keenan Allen are also found in the top 30.

The RB competition is high this season as 6 running backs made it into the top-10 rankings in the ADP report. Ekeler is 3rd among running backs, trailing just the Carolina Panthers Christian McCaffrey (2nd) and Indianapolis Colts Jonathan Taylor (1st) and going before the Tennessee Titans Derrick Henry (6th), Pittsburgh Steelers Najee Harris (8th), and Minnesota Vikings Dalvin Cook (9th).

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Austin Ekeler’s 2021 stats

Games: 16

Carries | rushing yards: 206 | 911

Rushing touchdowns: 12

Receptions | receiving yards: 70 | 647

Receiving touchdowns: 8

Where should you draft Ekeler?

Ekeler has sky-high potential, and he’s being drafted like it. Los Angeles has one of the best offenses in the NFL, scoring the 5th-most points last season. The Chargers also added Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

He should have some impact on Ekeler’s red zone carries. Ekeler ranked 2nd in the NFL in red zone carries last season, only trailing Indianapolis’ Taylor. The Chargers starting back also missed 6 games in 2020 which should bring a slight injury concern to the table.

Ekeler is going to be a stud, but considering the weapons on his offense mixed with a potential slight decrease in usage, I think I would prefer true 3-down backs like Harris and Henry.

Ekeler is good enough to be an early first-round pick, and his ADP at 7.5 does him justice.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery

Analyzing Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery is one of the few key players Chicago possesses, and he is a consistent force in both the rushing and passing game.

The 25-year-old Montgomery had some injury issues for the 1st time in his career last season, playing just 13 games. The Bears were led by rookie QB Justin Fields and finished a miserable 6-11.

Below, we look at David Montgomery‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Montgomery is a favorite among PPR leagues as he’s had at least 50 targets in each of the last 2 seasons. However, his potential injury-prone nature could make him difficult to trust.

David Montgomery’s ADP: 41.13

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Montgomery has an ADP of 41.13 in redraft leagues, which puts him in the 4th range of the draft. He is the highest-ranked Bears player by a long shot.

Among running backs, Montgomery ranks behind Travis Entienne (Jacksonville Jaguars) and James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) and above Breece Hall (New York Jets) and Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders).

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David Montgomery’s 2021 stats

Games: 13

Carries | rushing yards: 225 | 849

Rushing touchdowns: 7

Receptions | receiving yards: 42 | 301

Receiving touchdowns: 0

Where should you draft Montgomery?

Montgomery is being correctly priced here, and there is good reason to believe his value could improve.

For starters, he was 19th in points last season and then 16th in fantasy points per game. He’s entering the prime of his career and has remained relatively healthy for the first 3 seasons, missing only 5 games.

Additionally, while Montgomery may not have crushed it last season, he should be in a Fields-led offense that improves as the quarterback gains experience.

He’ll be a solid starting option, but I don’t see the upside in the Bears offense as they lost a quality guard and their best receiver in free agency, not adding any talent in the 1st round either.

Montgomery should be a mid-4th pick, and may get a slight boost to the early of the 4th in PPR formats, especially teams that start off the draft with a Justin Jefferson-type receiver.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Detroit Lions RB D’Andre Swift

Analyzing Detroit Lions RB D’Andre Swift’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Detroit Lions RB D’Andre Swift enters his 3rd season in the league after being a 2nd-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft out of Georgia.

He has been a stand-out in minicamps this summer, but there is a timidness in his game still after getting hurt in the 2021 season. Swift played in 13 games last season.

Below, we look at D’Andre Swift’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Swift has the potential to be the best fantasy back in the NFL, but the Lions offense at-large and his injury history could hold him back from being a consistent 1st-round pick.

D’Andre Swift’s ADP: 17.80

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Swift has an ADP of 17.80 in redraft leagues, which puts him in the 2nd round. He has the highest ADP of all the Lions players.

Among running backs, Swift’s ADP puts him 8th at the position, behind the likes of Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals) and Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings) and slightly ahead of Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns), and Saquon Barkley (New York Giants).

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D’Andre Swift’s 2021 stats:

Games: 13

Carries | rushing yards: 151 | 617

Rushing touchdowns: 5

Receptions | receiving yards: 62 | 452

Receiving touchdowns: 2

Where should you draft Swift?

In a full-PPR league, Swift is going to be a stud. He’s heavily incorporated into the pass-catching game.

Veteran RB Jamaal Williams is going to take some of his touches away so his ceiling is lower than a true 3-down back like Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris.

Swift ranked 15th in the NFL in points last season among running backs in a PPR format. He was 8th in points per game among RBs that played in at least 10 games.

He should be expected to surpass his workload from a season ago as the Lions, who added several weapons this offseason, should be able to extend possessions at a higher rate.

Swift has had 50-plus targets, 45-plus receptions and 100-plus carries in both seasons. His consistency and production should be there. The ceiling is high for Swift.

He’s a mid-2nd-round pick in PPR formats, and in non-PPR leagues, he should be a late-2nd-round pick or early-3rd-round pick. Feel free to wisely reach into the early 2nd for him in PPR formats.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert

Analyzing Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert looks to continue to grow his resume as he enters his 3rd season in the NFL. After racking up numerous accolades in his rookie season (2020), Herbert kept the pace he set for himself.

In the 2021 season, Herbert was tabbed AFC Offensive player of the week 3 times. His performance led him to his 1st Pro Bowl appearance and earned him a spot in the NFL top 100.

Below, we look at Justin Herbert’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Herbert continues to set the bar higher for himself as seen by his performance in his first 2 NFL seasons. Herbert will be an exciting player to watch as he continues to redefine his own standards on a game-by-game basis.

With Herbert at the stern, the Chargers might find themselves charging into a successful 2022 season.

Justin Herbert’s ADP: 27.22

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Herbert has an ADP of 27.22 in redraft leagues, which sets him among the 3rd-round draft picks. Among the Chargers, RB Austin Ekeler (7.50) is the only player to outrank Herbert.

Among wide receivers, Herbert’s ADP puts him 3rd at the position, behind the likes of Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), and Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), and slightly ahead of Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens), and Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals).

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Justin Herbert’s 2021 stats

Games: 17

Passing yards: 5,014

Completions | attempts: 443 | 672

Passing touchdowns: 38

Interceptions: 15

Carries | rushing yards: 63 | 302

Rushing touchdowns: 3

Where should you draft Herbert?

Herbert has the potential to be the league’s best fantasy quarterback, and he’s among the frontrunners for MVP. I wouldn’t reach into the 3rd round for Herbert, who is being taken before the Chargers No. 1 receiver, Keenan Allen.

There just isn’t that much separation between Herbert and the likes of QB Tom Brady and Murray, the former of which had 9 fewer points last season and is being taken in the 5th round. Even Murray averaged just 1.1 fewer fantasy points per game.

Herbert has the weapons, but injury concerns could dampen the outcome of Ekeler’s season, limiting the offense. Herbert has shown dynamic year-over-year improvements, but quarterback is a deep position.

Get Herbert in the 4th round and don’t overpay for his current ADP.

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Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Arizona Cardinals visit the Cincinnati Bengals in each team’s preseason opener in 2022. Friday’s kickoff is 7:30 p.m. at Paycor Stadium, airing only regionally for both teams in their home markets. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Bengals odds, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Cardinals play for the 1st time since their embarrassing 1st-round playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams and face the Bengals, the defending AFC champions. It is only the 2nd time the teams have played in the preseason with the first matchup in 1971.

The Cardinals are not expected to play almost any starters, including QB Kyler Murray.

The Bengals will not have QB Joe Burrow starting either. He is recovering from an appendectomy.

Cardinals at Bengals nickname odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:09 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Bengals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +2.5 (-110) | Bengals -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 30.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)